基于层次分析法的黄河上游水源涵养区生态系统恢复力评价——以甘南州、临夏州为例北大核心CSCD

在全球气候变化背景下,人类活动对生态环境质量影响的定量评价是区域生态保护与高质量发展的关键问题。本文基于层次分析法(AHP)和GIS可视化空间分析技术,应用遥感反演的生态系统分类资料和社会经济统计资料等,构建了包含社会经济、土地压力、自然条件3个准则层的生态系统恢复力评价指标体系,结合指标时空尺度无量纲化与综合指数法,进行了甘肃省甘南州、临夏州2000—2020年的生态系统恢复力定量评估。结果表明:研究区域空间尺度生态恢复力范围分别为0.14—0.65(2000年)、0.12—0.72(2005年)、0.07—0.70(2010年)、0.12—0.70(2015年)、0.28—0.82(2020年);甘南生态系统恢复力较高,临夏生态系统恢复力较低,在空间分布上,生态系统恢复力呈现北低南高的总体特征,高生态恢复力的乡镇以草地、森林、灌木生态系统为主,低生态恢复力的乡镇以农田、城镇生态系统为主;在时序变化特征中,生态系统恢复力总体向好,呈现先上升、后下降、最后上升趋势,受人类活动与气候变化共同作用。     

2009年中国一次沙尘暴过程中的水汽变化特征及WRF回报

通过对2009年4月22日至25日发生在甘肃、宁夏、内蒙古的一次沙尘暴观测和模拟回报试验,分析了沙尘暴过程中水汽及水热的变化特征,检验了天气研究和预报模式（WRF）对沙尘暴过程的模拟能力。结果表明,WRF能较好地再现出沙尘暴过程中水汽变化的基本特征。沙尘暴发生前,地面感热明显增加,大气中水汽明显减少。在沙尘暴过程中,扩散作用和气溶胶的凝结作用影响水汽的变化,而水汽的垂直方向变化较小;高空云水和云冰含量异常偏小,低层大气的温度和水汽含量下降。热力诊断的结果表明,沙尘暴过程中,由于水汽的相变,在600～800 hPa高度处,水汽凝结产生的视热源的加热率高达6 ℃·d-1,表明非绝热加热作用在沙尘暴的维持和发展起着重要的作用。     

南四湖生态湿地产业发展模式

通过对南四湖湿地调研,分析了南四湖发展生态湿地产业的优势和存在问题,提出了适合南四湖生态湿地产业发展的模式。     

Change analysis of rice area and production in China during the past three decades

Rice＇s spatial-temporal distributions, which are critical for agricultural, environ- mental and food security research, are affected by natural conditions as well as socio-eco- nomic developments. Based on multi-source data, an effective model named the Spatial Production Allocation Model （SPAM） which integrates arable land distribution, administrative unit statistics of crop data, agricultural irrigation data and crop suitability data, was used to get a series of spatial distributions of rice area and production with 10-km pixels at a national scale -it was applied from the early 1980s onwards and used to analyze the pattern of spatial and temporal changes. The results show that significant changes occurred in rice in China during 1980-2010. Overall, more than 50% of the rice area decreased, while nearly 70% of rice production increased in the change region during 1980-2010. Spatially, most of the increased area and production were in Northeast China, especially, in Jilin and Heilongjiang; most of the decreased area and production were located in Southeast China, especially, in regions of rapidly urbanization in Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang. Thus, the centroid of rice area was moved northeast approximately 230 km since 1980, and rice production about 320 km, which means rice production moved northeastward faster than rice area because of the significant rice yield increase in Northeast China. The results also show that rice area change had a decisive impact on rice production change. About 54.5% of the increase in rice pro- duction is due to the expansion of sown area, while around 83.2% of the decrease in rice production is due to contraction of rice area. This implies that rice production increase may be due to area expansion and other non-area factors, but reduced rice production could largely be attributed to rice area decrease.     

基于生态足迹模型的福建省生态安全分析与预测

生态足迹是目前较通用的衡量区域可持续发展的指标,利用生态足迹模型与其他指标结合,可以测算生态赤字（盈余）、生态足迹压力指数、万元GDP足迹等反映区域生态安全状态的定量指标．本研究计算了2002-2008年福建省人均生态赤字及生态足迹压力指数,得到全省生态压力的变化趋势．利用GM（1,1）灰色预测模型预测2009--2014年福建省人均耕地生态足迹与承载力、人均建筑用地生态足迹与承载力、人均生态赤字及生态足迹压力指数,结果表明,若继续沿着2002--2008年的发展模式,福建省在未来几年内生态安全将面临极大威胁,全省经济发展模式转型刻不容缓．     

闲暇时间约束对中山陵景区国内客源市场空间结构的影响

闲暇时间是旅游需求得以实现的必要条件之一,居民闲暇时间的变化必然对旅游地客源市场空间结构产生影响。选择"五一"小长假、"十一"黄金周及暑假3类6个不同闲暇时长的时段,基于现场问卷调研,使用客源地地理集中指数、客源吸引半径、距离衰减曲线及引力模型研究闲暇时间约束对南京市中山陵景区客源市场空间结构的影响,发现随着假日时长的增加,居民出游距离受闲暇时间的约束降低,从而旅游地客源吸引半径增大,客源地集中指数降低、距离衰减曲线变缓、距离衰减指数降低。研究结果表明,在不同时长的闲暇时间约束下,距离因素对景区客流量的影响最大,其次为收入(客源地人均地区生产总值),而客源地人口规模因素的影响最小。     

Vegetative succession and controlled fire in a glades ecosystem A geographical information system approach

Abstract

A geographical information system (GIS) approach was used successfully on a federal wilderness area in southwestern Missouri to examine vegetative succession relative to fire management in a glades ecosystem. Maps of vegetation were obtained by interpreting aerial photographs taken in 1938, 1958, 1966, 1975 and 1986. Maps of topography, streams, soils and the location of fires which burned during the period 1938 to 1986 were also procured from a variety of public agencies. All maps were digitized and incorporated into a raster-based GIS with 25 m pixels. It was concluded that (1) both glades and oak-hickory forest have an affinity for distinct physiographic areas and (2) fire can help decrease the rate of processes of natural succession which cause glades to convert to forest. The probable effects of controlled fire on three areas proposed by the Forest Service were evaluated and summarized.     

Land cover classification by an artificial neural network with ancillary information

Abstract

Remote sensing is an important source of land cover data required by many GIS users. Land cover data are typically derived from remotely–sensed data through the application of a conventional statistical classification. Such classification techniques are not, however, always appropriate, particularly as they may make untenable assumptions about the data and their output is hard, comprising only the code of the most likely class of membership. Whilst some deviation from the assumptions may be tolerated and a fuzzy output may be derived, making more information on class membership properties available, alternative classification procedures are sometimes required. Artificial neural networks are an attractive alternative to the statistical classifiers and here one is used to derive a fuzzy classification output from a remotely–sensed data set that may be post–processed with ancillary data available in a GIS to increase the accuracy with which land cover may be mapped. With the aid ancillary information on soil type and prior knowledge of class occurrence the accuracy of an artificial neural network classification was increased by 29–93 to 77–37 per cent. An artificial neural network can therefore be used generate a fuzzy classification output that may be used with other data sets in a GIS, which may not have been available to the producer of the classification, to increase the accuracy with which land cover may be classified.     

Implementing a new data model for simulating processes

The paper describes the development of a new methodological approach for simulating geographic processes through the development of a data model that represents a process. This methodology complements existing approaches to dynamic modelling, which focus on the states of the system at each time step, by storing and representing the processes that are implicit in the model. The data model, called nen, focuses existing modelling approaches on representing and storing process information, which provides advantages for querying and analysing processes. The flux simulation framework was created utilizing the nen data model to represent processes. This simulator includes basic classes for developing a domain specific simulation and a set of query tools for inquiring after the results of a simulation. The methodology is prototyped with a watershed runoff simulation.     

A comparative analysis of DEM‐based models to estimate the solar radiation in mountainous terrain

Daily solar radiation estimates of four up‐to‐date solar radiation models (Solar Analyst, r.sun, SRAD and Solei‐32), based on a digital elevation model (DEM), have been evaluated and compared in a Mediterranean environment characterized by a complex topography. The models' estimates were evaluated against 40 days of radiometric data collected in 14 stations. Analyzed sky conditions ranged from completely overcast conditions to clear skies. Additionally, the role of the spatial resolution of the DEM has been evaluated through the use of two different resolutions: 20 and 100 m. Results showed that, under clear‐sky conditions, the daily solar radiation variability in the study area may be reasonably estimated with mean bias errors under 10% and root mean square error values of around 15%. On the other hand, results proved that the reliability of the estimates substantially decreases under overcast conditions for some of the solar radiation models. Regarding the role of the DEM spatial resolution, results suggested that the reliability of the estimates for complex topography areas under clear‐sky conditions improves using a higher spatial resolution.