Water level variations in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries,North Carolina due to local and remote forcing

Water level time series records from the Neuse and Pamlico River Estuaries were statistically compared to local and distant wind field data, water level records within the Pamlico Sound and also coastal ocean sites to determine the relative contribution of each time series to water levels in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries. The objectives of this study were to examine these time series data using various statistical methods (i.e. autoregressive, empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF), exploratory data analysis (EDA)) to determine short- and long-time-scale variability, and to develop predictive statistical models that can be used to estimate past water level fluctuations in both the Neuse Estuary (NE) and Pamlico Estuary (PE). Short- and long-time-scale similarities were observed in all time series of estuarine, Pamlico Sound and subtidal coastal ocean water level and wind component data, due to events (nor'easters, fronts and tropical systems) and seasonality. Empirical orthogonal function analyses revealed a strong coastal ocean and wind field contribution to water level in the NE and PE. Approximately 95% of the variation was captured in the first two EOF components for water level data from the NE, sound and coastal ocean, and 70% for the PE, sound and coastal ocean. Spectral density plots revealed strong diurnal signals in both wind and water level data, and a strong cross correlation and coherency between the NE water level and the North/South wind component. There was good agreement between data and predictions using autoregressive statistical models for the NE (R² = 0.92) and PE (R² = 0.76). These methods also revealed significant autoregressive lags for the NE (days 1 and 3) and for the PE (days 1, 2 and 3). Significant departures from predictions are attributed to local meteorological and hydrological events. The autoregressive techniques showed significant predictive improvement over ordinary least squares methods. The results are considered within the context of providing long time-scale hindcast data for the two estuaries, and the importance of these data for multidisciplinary researchers and managers.     

Nonlinear numerical simulation on extreme-wave kinematics

A fully nonlinear numerical model based on a time-domain higher-order boundary element method (HOBEM) is founded to simulate the kinematics of extreme waves. In the model, the fully nonlinear free surface boundary conditions are satisfied and a semi-mixed Euler-Lagrange method is used to track free surface; a fourth-order Runga-Kutta technique is adopted to refresh the wave elevation and velocity potential on the free surface at each time step; an image Green function is used in the numerical wave tank so that the integrations on the lateral surfaces and bottom are excluded. The extreme waves are generated by the method of wave focusing. The physical experiments are carried out in a wave flume. On the horizontal velocity of the measured point, numerical solutions agree well with experimental results. The characteristics of the nonlinear extreme-wave kinematics and the velocity distribution are studied here.     

5种中草药对美国红鱼生长和免疫机能的影响

用分别含连翘(Forsythia suspensa)、猪苓(Polyporus umbellatus)、黄芩(Radix scutellariae)、茯苓(Poria cocos)和黄连(Coptis chinensis)水提取物的配合饵料饲喂美国红鱼(Sciaenops ocellatus),研究其对美国红鱼(Sciaenops ocellatus)生长和免疫机能的影响.结果表明,投喂含有黄芩和茯苓的药饵可使美国红鱼的体长增长率和相对增质量率显著高于对照组(P<0.05);投喂5种含中草药的药饵后,美国红鱼血液白细胞的吞噬活性有明显提高,投药后3 d,除茯苓组外,其余各组吞噬百分比(PP)与对照组之间均差异极显著(P<0.01);在投药后3 d或投药后7 d,连翘、黄芩和黄连组的吞噬指数(PI)与对照组相比有显著(P<0.05)或极显著(P<0.01)差异.在停投药饵后7 d,除茯苓组外,其余各组PP、PI与对照组相比仍有显著差异(P<0.05).同时,美国红鱼血清溶菌酶活性也有显著提高,投药后7 d,溶菌酶活性与对照组之间差异极显著(P<0.01),但在停投药饵后7 d,溶菌酶活性与对照组之间无显著差异(P>0.05);投药28 d后,利用哈维氏弧菌(Vibrio harveyi)人工感染美国红鱼,黄芩组的相对免疫保护率最高,达88.9%,连翘组次之,茯苓组最低.     

Lienard方程零解渐近稳定性的一个弱条件

研究Liemrd方程零解的渐近稳定性.在Liapunov函数Ⅴ满足dV/dt≤0的情况下,给出了进一步判断其渐近稳定的一个条件.     

非线性Kuamoto-Sivashinsky方程的精确控制

运用泛函分析性质以及Fourier变换的方法研究带有周期边界条件的非线性k-s方程在有限时间区间上的精确控制.首先研究线性化k-s方程的精确控制,证明对于任意给定的函数u0∈Hs,uT∈Hs,总能找到一个控制函数h使得线性化k-s方程有解u且满足u(x,0)=u0,u(x,T)=uT;然后结合线性化k-s方程的精确控制,通过定义Fredholm算子并应用Fredholm算子的一些理论找到非线性化k-s方程的控制函数,使其可精确控制.     

Moritz解析延拓解与Bjerhammar虚拟球面解的等价性

利用调和函数的性质以及球谐函数展开理论,并根据实数域上函数的幂级数展开式证明了Moritz解析延拓解与Bjerhammar虚拟球面解的等价性,同时分析了两种解的内在区别。     

一类带有负顾客且具有反馈的M/G/1可修排队系统

研究了一类带有负顾客且具有反馈的M/G/1可修排队系统,正顾客服务完会以一定的概率立即排到队尾等待下一次服务,而以一定的补概率离开系统,永不再来。服务规则是先到先服务,负顾客抵消排队系统中的中间顾客（RCM）。使用“补充变量法”和状态转移方程分析该模型,得到了这一模型的排队指标和可靠性指标,并且发现此类排队系统完全取决于队长为2的概率。     

基于集合预报极端天气预测指数的浙江分类强对流预报模型

利用2016—2021年ECWMF集合预报资料、浙江自动站实况资料等,计算浙江短时强降水、雷暴大风和冰雹等强对流天气相关物理量的极端天气预报指数（EFI：Extreme Forecast Index）,分析EFI分布特征,并构建了分类强对流预报模型。结果表明：强对流天气与物理量的EFI有密切联系,发生短时强降水时,对流有效位能、整层可降水量、850 hPa与500 hPa温差和位温差的EFI较大,而垂直风切变的EFI为负值,因而较小的垂直风切变更有利于出现极端降水;发生雷暴大风和冰雹时,对流有效位能、850 hPa与500 hPa温差和位温差以及850 hPa温度露点差的EFI较大,700 hPa露点温度的EFI为负值,与上层干冷下层暖湿的有利层结条件有关。利用支持向量机多分类方法,将强对流天气相关物理量的EFI作为特征值开展训练,构建的预报模型对于非局地强对流天气有较好的预报效果,其中短时强降水的误判率明显低于雷暴大风。     

建立高程异常内插计算综合模型的研究

大地测量中数值逼近模型可分为两类:函数模型与统计模型,两种类型各有优、缺点。函数模型逼近一般求定逼近场的系统性或某种规律性趋势。统计模型逼近的主要特点是计算灵活,尤其对稳态随机过程的逼近效果较好。试图将二者有机地结合起来,以便充分利用函数模型逼近的规律性和统计模型逼近的灵活性,从而提高待求量的精度和可靠性。并通过实际算例证明将两者结合起来可有效改善拟合效果。     

河北省数字地震台网子台地动噪声分析

通过对河北省数字遥测地震台网子台地动噪声分析,各个子台的台址环境和观测仪器的性能基本优良,能够适应宽频带地震观测要求。由于子台受当地经济发展、城市规模扩大以及交通建设等影响,部分台址观测条件受到影响。可以有针对性地对部分台站进行环境改造,为地震监测预报创造更好条件。