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191.
The joint probability density fimction (PDF) of different structural responses is a very important topic in the stochastic response analysis of nonlinear structures. In this paper, the probability density evolution method, which is successfully developed to capture the instantaneous PDF of an arbitrary single response of interest, is extended to evaluate the joint PDF of any two responses. A two-dimensional partial differential equation in terms of the joint PDF is established. The strategy of selecting representative points via the number theoretical method and sieved by a hyper-ellipsoid is outlined. A two-dimensional difference scheme is developed. The free vibration of an SDOF system is examined to verify the proposed method, and a flame structure exhibiting hysteresis subjected to stochastic ground motion is investigated. It is pointed out that the correlation of different responses results from the fact that randomness of different responses comes from the same set of basic random parameters involved. In other words, the essence of the probabilistic correlation is a physical correlation. 相似文献
192.
The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology. 相似文献
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Statistical analysis and forecasts of long-term sandbank evolution at Great Yarmouth, UK 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3
Dominic E. Reeve Jos M. Horrillo-Caraballo Vanesa Magar 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008,79(3):387-399
A data-driven model has been developed to analyse the long-term evolution of a sandbank system and to make ensemble predictions in a period of 8 years. The method uses a combination of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, (to define spatial and temporal patterns of variability), jack-knife resampling, (to generate an ensemble of EOFs), a causal auto-regression technique, (to extrapolate the temporal eigenfunctions), and straightforward statistical analysis of the resulting ensemble of predictions to determine a ‘forecast’ and associated uncertainty. The methodology has been applied to a very demanding site which includes a curved shoreline and a group of mobile nearshore sandbanks. The site is on the eastern coast of the UK and includes the Great Yarmouth sandbanks and neighbouring shoreline. A sequence of 33 high quality historical survey charts reaching back to 1848 have been used to analyse the patterns and to predict morphological evolution of the sandbank system. The forecasts demonstrate an improved skill relative to an assumption of persistence, but suffer in locations where there are propagating features in the morphology that are not well-described by EOFs. 相似文献
196.
Robert E. Reed David A. Dickey JoAnn M. Burkholder Carol A. Kinder Cavell Brownie 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008
Water level time series records from the Neuse and Pamlico River Estuaries were statistically compared to local and distant wind field data, water level records within the Pamlico Sound and also coastal ocean sites to determine the relative contribution of each time series to water levels in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries. The objectives of this study were to examine these time series data using various statistical methods (i.e. autoregressive, empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF), exploratory data analysis (EDA)) to determine short- and long-time-scale variability, and to develop predictive statistical models that can be used to estimate past water level fluctuations in both the Neuse Estuary (NE) and Pamlico Estuary (PE). Short- and long-time-scale similarities were observed in all time series of estuarine, Pamlico Sound and subtidal coastal ocean water level and wind component data, due to events (nor'easters, fronts and tropical systems) and seasonality. Empirical orthogonal function analyses revealed a strong coastal ocean and wind field contribution to water level in the NE and PE. Approximately 95% of the variation was captured in the first two EOF components for water level data from the NE, sound and coastal ocean, and 70% for the PE, sound and coastal ocean. Spectral density plots revealed strong diurnal signals in both wind and water level data, and a strong cross correlation and coherency between the NE water level and the North/South wind component. There was good agreement between data and predictions using autoregressive statistical models for the NE (R2 = 0.92) and PE (R2 = 0.76). These methods also revealed significant autoregressive lags for the NE (days 1 and 3) and for the PE (days 1, 2 and 3). Significant departures from predictions are attributed to local meteorological and hydrological events. The autoregressive techniques showed significant predictive improvement over ordinary least squares methods. The results are considered within the context of providing long time-scale hindcast data for the two estuaries, and the importance of these data for multidisciplinary researchers and managers. 相似文献
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研究了一类带有负顾客且具有反馈的M/G/1可修排队系统,正顾客服务完会以一定的概率立即排到队尾等待下一次服务,而以一定的补概率离开系统,永不再来。服务规则是先到先服务,负顾客抵消排队系统中的中间顾客(RCM)。使用“补充变量法”和状态转移方程分析该模型,得到了这一模型的排队指标和可靠性指标,并且发现此类排队系统完全取决于队长为2的概率。 相似文献
199.
中国县域乡村地域多功能格局及影响因素识别 总被引:8,自引:2,他引:6
论文以中国大陆县域为研究单元,构建乡村地域多功能评价指标体系,利用熵权法、半变异函数和地理探测器等模型,对2000—2015年中国乡村多功能指数进行综合测评,揭示中国县域乡村地域多功能的空间分异特征,定量识别乡村地域多功能空间分异的影响因素。研究结果表明:① 中国乡村地域多功能在空间上呈现出平原、东部沿海等地区高值集聚,高原、山地等地区低值集聚,各县域乡村地域多功能整体呈现出逐渐提升态势;② 经济发展功能和社会保障功能对乡村地域多功能的贡献率逐渐增大,农业生产功能和生态保育功能对乡村地域多功能的贡献率逐渐减小;③ 2000—2015年,中国大陆范围内县域乡村地域多功能空间自相关范围和强度总体呈现减小的趋势,随机性因子成为乡村地域多功能空间分异的主要驱动力;④ 县域经济整体发展水平和财政收入是影响乡村地域多功能空间分异的主导因素;各影响因素之间的两两交互作用会增强乡村地域多功能的空间分异;社会环境因素对乡村地域多功能空间分异的影响程度逐渐上升,自然环境因素的影响程度逐渐下降。 相似文献
200.
针对InSAR技术研究地表三维形变时监测信息不足的问题,以GPS监测信息为先验信息,建立附有随机模型约束的地表三维形变模型。考虑到SAR卫星极轨方式运行导致LOS向观测量对南北向形变不敏感的问题,以GPS南北向形变观测值作为强约束,构建三维形变解算的函数约束条件。模拟数据与西安地区实测数据的计算结果表明,基于随机模型与函数模型共同约束的地表三维形变参数最小二乘解的精度优于仅有函数模型约束或仅有随机模型约束及无任何约束的参数解精度。 相似文献