基于Bootstrap方法的岩土体参数联合分布模型识别

小样本容量岩土体参数最优联合概率分布模型的识别是一个富有挑战性的问题。基于Bootstrap提出了小样本容量岩土体参数最优边缘分布函数和最优Copula函数识别方法。简要介绍了岩土体参数联合概率分布函数构造的Copula方法,采用AIC准则识别最优的边缘分布函数和Copula函数。将识别结果表示为不同备选边缘分布函数和Copula函数为最优边缘分布和最优Copula的权重系数集合,以基桩荷载-位移双曲线参数试验数据为例证明了所提方法的有效性。结果表明：基于小样本容量岩土体参数试验数据估计的样本均值、标准差和相关系数具有较大的离散性,这种离散性进一步导致了统计量AIC值存在较大变异性。提出的基于Bootstrap的最优边缘分布函数和最优Copula函数识别方法不仅可以有效地考虑统计量AIC值的变异性,而且能够综合地反映不同备选边缘分布函数和Copula函数为最优边缘分布和最优Copula函数的概率,为小样本容量岩土体参数最优边缘分布函数和最优Copula函数的识别提供了一条有效的途径。     

距离法定量评价储层地质模型的不确定性

针对目前常用的储层地质模型不确定性评价方法存在的主要问题,提出了先用距离函数计算模型之间的差异,再以差异的大小来判断不确定性大小的方法.以WZ油田西区为例,采用相控物性参数建模技术,利用顺序高斯模拟方法建立渗透率的三维模型.对各种度量差异的距离函数进行对比研究和分析,结果显示曼哈顿距离函数和欧氏距离函数能较好地刻画模型之间的差异.选用欧氏距离函数计算模型之间的差异,其原理是先计算每两个模型之间相对应的每一网格节点的渗透率值差的平方和,然后取平方根,得到一个表征各模型之间差异的矩阵.根据该矩阵可得到各个模型之间的差异程度,差异越大,不确定性就越大.最后通过对比模型过井剖面图分析结果与距离矩阵分析结果,说明了本方法的正确性,结果显示该方法能有效评价随机模拟生成的储层地质模型的不确定性.     

Applying local Green's functions to study the influence of the crustal structure on hydrological loading displacements

The influence of the elastic Earth properties on seasonal or shorter periodic surface deformations due to atmospheric surface pressure and terrestrial water storage variations is usually modeled by applying a local half-space model or an one dimensional spherical Earth model like PREM from which a unique set of elastic load Love numbers, or alternatively, elastic Green's functions are derived. The first model is valid only if load and observer almost coincide, the second model considers only the response of an average Earth structure. However, for surface loads with horizontal scales less than 2500 km², as for instance, for strong localized hydrological signals associated with heavy precipitation events and river floods, the Earth elastic response becomes very sensitive to inhomogeneities in the Earth crustal structure.We derive a set of local Green's functions defined globally on a 1° × 1° grid for the 3-layer crustal structure TEA12. Local Green's functions show standard deviations of ±12% in the vertical and ±21% in the horizontal directions for distances in the range from 0.1° to 0.5°. By means of Green's function scatter plots, we analyze the dependence of the load response to various crustal rocks and layer thicknesses. The application of local Green's functions instead of a mean global Green's function introduces a variability of 0.5–1.0 mm into the hydrological loading displacements, both in vertical and in horizontal directions. Maximum changes due to the local crustal structures are from −25% to +26% in the vertical and −91% to +55% in the horizontal displacements. In addition, the horizontal displacement can change its direction significantly. The lateral deviations in surface deformation due to local crustal elastic properties are found to be much larger than the differences between various commonly used one-dimensional Earth models.     

Generalized failure envelope for caisson foundations in cohesive soil: Static and dynamic loading

The response of massive caisson foundations to combined vertical (N), horizontal (Q) and moment (M) loading is investigated parametrically by a series of three-dimensional finite element analyses. The study considers foundations in cohesive soil, with due consideration to the caisson-soil contact interface conditions. The ultimate limit states are presented by failure envelopes in dimensionless and normalized forms and the effects of the embedment ratio, vertical load and interface friction on the bearing capacity are studied in detail. Particular emphasis is given on the physical and geometrical interpretation of the kinematic mechanisms that accompany failure, with respect to the loading ratio M/Q. Exploiting the numerical results, analytical expressions are derived for the capacities under pure horizontal, moment and vertical loading, for certain conditions. For the case of fully bonded interface conditions, comparison is given with upper bound limit equilibrium solutions based on Brinch Hansen theory for the ultimate lateral soil reaction. A generalized closed-form expression for the failure envelope in M–Q–N space is then proposed and validated for all cases examined. It is shown that the incremental displacement vector of the caisson at failure follows an associated flow rule, with respect to the envelope, irrespective of: (a) the caisson geometry, and (b) the interface conditions. A simplified geometrical explanation and physical interpretation of the associativity in M-Q load space is also provided. Finally, the derived failure envelope is validated against low (0.67 Hz) and high frequency (5 Hz) dynamic loading tests and the role of radiation damping on the response of the caisson at near failure conditions is unraveled.     

新疆巴楚和塔什库尔干地震台下方地壳结构研究

Using the teleseismic waveform data recorded by the seismic station Bachu( hereafter referred to as station BCH) i n the Tarim Basin and the seismic station Taxkorgan(h ereafter referred to as station TAG) i n the west Kunlun Mountains for years,we applied the receiver function H-κ stacking method to study the crustal structure beneath stations BCH and TAG. The results showed that there are obvious differences in the crustal thickness beneath stations BCH and TAG,and the regional crustal thickness and terrain have a very good corresponding relationship. There are high crustal average V P/ V S values beneath the two stations. The crustal thickness is 44 km,and the crustal average wave velocity ratio is 1. 849 beneath station BCH. There is a sharp discontinuity in the middle of the crust beneath station BCH at a depth of 21 km. There is a low average P wave velocity and low V P/ V S from the surface to the discontinuity beneath station BCH.The depth of the discontinuity is consistent with the lower interface of the focal depth from accurate location in the Jiashi earthquake source area adjacent to station BCH; and may be the crustal brittle-ductile conversion boundary. The crustal thickness is 69 km,and the crustal average wave velocity ratio is 1. 847 beneath station TAG,a thicker crust and high V P/ V S may indicate that materials in the lower crustal are prone to plastic flow,which is responsible for the thickening of the crust.     

龙门山断裂带横断层地质特征及其控震作用

利用区域地质、构造、遥感地貌、地球物理、野外露头等多方面的证据,标定出龙门山断裂带横断层。在分析卧龙—怀远、虎牙断裂南段和白龙江等横断层特征及分布的基础上,探讨了横断层的控震作用。研究认为,龙门山断裂带横断层具有独立发震、使龙门山主断裂带分段活动及分段发震、与主逆冲断裂联合发震、在主震发生后控制余震传播和引发余震等多种方式的控震作用。     

对流层映射函数对陆态网解算精度的影响

对流层映射函数是卫星高度角及其他一些因素的函数,它的好坏直接影响对流层延迟改正的效果。本文介绍了NMF、VMF1及GMF 3种模型,采用2016年陆态网及周边IGS站数据,通过GAMIT软件计算对比分析了3种映射函数对陆态网解算精度的影响。结果表明,在进行陆态网解算时,3种映射函数模型精度差别不大,截止高度角为10°时精度最佳。     

利用TanDEM-X生成DEM的精度评定

目前,许多学者对TanDEM-X生成DEM开展了一些研究,其研究成果也显示了TanDEM-X生成高精度DEM的可行性。为了验证TanDEM-X/TerraSAR-X干涉生成的DEM能否满足测图要求,需要对其进行精度评价和分析。相对于C波段的ERS、ASAR和L波段的ALOS,X波段的高分辨率TerraSAR影像干涉条纹更密集,解缠更加困难。针对这一问题,本文设计了一种低分辨率SRTM辅助高分辨率的X波段的TerraSAR干涉相位解缠方案,提高了解缠的效率和精度。同时,本文提出了一种基于协方差函数的方法对TDX/TSX DEM进行精度分析和评价。该方法通过对各个距离上的协方差值进行拟合,消除了高程误差异常对InSAR DEM精度评价的影响,可以更加客观真实地反映DEM的精度。实例分析结果表明：采用协方差函数方法来评价DEM的精度是可行的,对于试验研究区域,TDX/TSX干涉生成的DEM总体精度为1.42 m,能够满足1：10 000测图要求,为我国空白地区的测图提供了有利条件。     

一种基于三角函数的矢栅地理数据可逆几何脱密模型

矢栅地理数据是基础地理信息数据的重要组成部分,其安全保护研究十分重要。我国有关法律法规对公开版地图的脱密几何精度有明确规定,基础地理数据需要脱密后才能公开共享使用。本文在分析三角函数脱密特性和矢栅地理数据特征的基础上,顾及矢栅地理数据叠加使用的特点,设计了一种基于三角函数的矢栅地理数据一体化的可逆脱密模型。试验证明,该模型较好地保持了地理实体的拓扑关系,脱密处理速度快,安全性高,误差可控,数据接边好。     

基于杨赤中推估法空间插值的三维地质隐式建模

杨赤中推估法是一种对空间域复合变量通过连续的几何滤波过程来建立核函数的最小二乘推估法,建模过程简便且能基于少量已知数据点取得好的建模效果。针对地质勘查中离散、稀疏而不规则分布的地质特征点数据难以构建地质体三维模型的难点问题,提出了一种基于杨赤中推估法的三维地质空间插值与模型建立的自动化方法。该方法首先以地质特征点数据库为基础,选用负幂指数函数模型建立适合三维地质空间插值的杨赤中推估法估值数学模型;在此基础上,构建一套基于杨赤中推估法的三维地质空间插值计算和地质体隐式建模的自动化实现流程与程序;最后以实例矿化插值数据为基础,采用基于移动立方体算法的三维隐式建模方法,快速构建实例矿体三维模型。与人工交互圈定地质体边界和进行矿体推断的三维地质显式建模相比,这种方法能快速直观地分析地质特征并处理样品分析数据,方法可行且高效。