Spatio-temporal Distribution of Three Kinds of Flash Droughts over Agricultural Land in China from 1983 to 2015

At present, flash drought occurs globally and regionally and causes a lot of socio-economic loss in a very short time. Therefore, flash drought has been regarded as one of the hottest issues in drought research. However, flash drought monitoring, prediction and decision-making have encountered a lot of challenges due to its multiple driven factors and complex spatio-temporal process. Aiming at this problem, this paper focused on the agricultural land in China, and analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution of three kinds of flash droughts (i.e., precipitation-deficit, high-temperature, and composite flash droughts) from 1983 to 2015. We studied the occurrences, duration, spatial distribution, temporal distribution, and trend of all three kinds of flash droughts. Our results demonstrated that, the occurrences of flash drought agricultural land in China increased year by year, among which high-temperature flash drought increased dramatically; duration of flash droughts had different trends, but the variations were relatively smooth; Northeast China was identified as a vulnerable area of flash drought, indicating more flash drought events and longer duration; flash droughts in China were found to concentrate in spring (high-temperature drought) and summer seasons (precipitation-deficit drought). This study is helpful for building new flash drought monitoring method and system, and it is also valuable for flash drought preparedness on regional scale.     

2017年辽宁省春夏季精细化气象干旱监测评估

基于辽宁省1114个国家级和区域级地面台站1961年以来的逐日气温和降水观测资料,利用距离平方反比法差值生成了1717个乡镇的气象资料序列,采用气象干旱综合监测指数统计分析了辽宁省2017年4—8月精细化到乡镇的气象干旱特征。结果表明:2017年辽宁省春夏季异常高温,同时降水异常偏少,致使气象干旱不断发展;干旱在4月5日前从中部和北部开始,4月末扩展到西部,5—6月再向东南发展,波及88%的乡镇,7月以来气象干旱程度开始减轻;气象干旱持续时间长的乡镇主要集中在中部和北部,最长持续时间153d;受气温偏高和降水过程的影响,中度以上气象干旱面积呈阶段性变化,且极端干旱的发展伴随高温时段。由于气象干旱不同于农业干旱,在开展为农服务时要因地制宜采取应对措施。     

The Extra-Area Effect in 71 Cloud Seeding Operations during Winters of 2008–14 over Jiangxi Province,East China

Effects of weather modification operations on precipitation in target areas have been widely reported, but little is specifically known about the downwind (extra-area) effects in China. We estimated the extra-area effect of an operational winter (November-February) aircraft cloud-seeding project in northern Jiangxi Province in eastern China by using a revised historical target/control regression analysis method based on the precipitation data in winter. The results showed that the overall seasonal average rainfall at the downwind stations increased by 21.67%(p=0.0013). This enhancement effect was detected as far as 120 km away from the target area. Physical testing was used to compare the cloud characteristics before and after seeding on 29 November 2014. A posteriori analysis with respect to the characteristics of cloud units derived from operational weather radar data in Jiangxi was performed by tracking cloud units. Radar features in the target unit were enhanced relative to the control unit for more than two hours after the operational cloud seeding, which is indicative of the extra-area seeding effect. The findings could be used to help relieve water shortages in China.     

On the linkage between changes in cloud cover and precipitation extremes over Central India

In this study, linkage between changing characteristics of precipitation extremes and cloud covers over Central India is explored during summer monsoon period using Satellite data (1998–2015). This is a first attempt to relate the changes in cloud cover to the changes in precipitation extremes. Non-rainy cirrus clouds are excluded from this study. Results show that heavy rainfall (≥ 60 mm/day) is associated with cold cloud tops (Tb≤220 K) while moderate rainfall (<60 mm/day and ≥20 mm) occurs mostly with middle clouds (Tb>220 K and ≤245 K). Low level clouds (Tb> 245 K) are responsible for light rainfall (<20 mm/day). Increases in top 20%, 10%, 5% and 1% heavy precipitation relate well with the increases in very deep convective, deep convective and convective cloud cover. Among these relations, increase in top 5% heavy precipitation relates best with increase in very deep convective cloud cover. Decrease in bottom 30% low precipitation relates with decrease in low level cloud cover. The results reported in this study fit into the framework of how weather extremes respond to climate change.     

使用MODIS陆地产品LST和NDVI监测中国中、西部干旱

利用中分辨率成像光谱仪AQUA-MODIS卫星资料反演的地表温度LST和归一化差值植被指数NDVI,在中国中、西部地区应用植被温度混合状态指数VTCI方法,遥感监测干旱的空间分布状况。同时结合该地区有代表性的气象站逐月降水资料与VTCI指数进行相关分析,来验证此方法的适用性。结果表明,VTCI指数不仅与当月的降水量,也与其前期2至6个月的累积降水量有较好的线性相关性,显示VTCI方法不仅是较为有效的近实时大范围干旱监测方法,对于干旱的缓慢发展过程也有一定指示作用。     

Decline of Pseudodiaptomus hessei (Copepoda, Calanoida) in two water bodies located in the Senegal River hydrosystem (West Africa): Hypotheses and perspectives

Pseudodiaptomus hessei is a key species in many water bodies in the Senegal River hydrosystem but it became rare or completely disappeared from two ecosystems (Lake Guiers and Dakar Bango Reservoir; Senegal, West Africa) after major hydrological changes caused by human action, mainly impoundments on the river in 1985, and the opening of a new estuary mouth in 2003. Kâ et al. [Kâ, S., Pagano, M., Ba, N., Bouvy, M., Leboulanger, C., Arfi, R., Thiaw, O.T., Ndour, E.H.M., Corbin, D., Defaye, D., Cuoc, C., Kouassi, E., 2006. Zooplankton distribution related to environmental factors and phytoplankton in a shallow tropical lake (Lake Guiers, Senegal, West Africa). International Review of Hydrobiology 91(5), 389–405] put forward several hypotheses to explain the reasons for this decline: salinity and chemical changes in the water, predation by a cyclopid predator Mesocyclops ogunnus and/or the inhibiting effects of cyanobacteria and/or diatoms (allelopathy). This study assessed these hypotheses by studying the distribution of P. hessei in 13 stations (including the Dakar Bango reservoir and Lake Guiers) in relation to physical, chemical and biological (phyto- and zooplanktons) factors at each station. We produced a distribution pattern for this species in the Senegal River hydrosystem. Rank correlations and principal component analysis showed that P. hessei was not correlated with conductivity but was positively correlated with pH and alkalinity, suggesting chemical effects. The clear association with two filamentous cyanobacteria (Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii and Anabaena sp.) did not appear to support the hypothesis of cyanobacteria inhibition but blooming conditions were never encountered during the study. Negative correlation with diatoms (especially with Fragilaria sp.) suggested that aldehyde producing diatoms had a negative effect. Negative correlations with cyclopids such as Mesocyclops supported the hypothesis of cyclopid predation to explain the decline of P. hessei. This study proposes several lines of research for future studies to test these hypotheses.     

Tectonic Movement and Global Climate Change

Glaciation between northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere were synchronous, the ice age occurred not in high but in low value of the eccentricity of the earth's orbit. Such facts went against the precession principle of the astronomical theory of ice age. The inhomogeneous distribution of climate consisted with the inhomogeneous distribution of ocean and continent. The north/south antisymmetry may be attributed to southward deviation of the thermal center and northward deviation of the mass center within the mantle demonstrated by seismic tomography. The core - mantle angular momentum makes rotational energy into thermal energy and mantle plumes erupt in the ocean bottom. The earth's deformation by tidal force makes the eruption of mantle plumes strong. They are the reason that glaciation between the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere are synchronous and the ice age occurred in low value of the eccentricity of the earth' s orbit. The tectonic movement is playing a most important part in global climate change.     

信息化对旅游产业发展的空间溢出效应

信息化将重塑区域间旅游产业的互动和关联。既有研究虽然对信息化与旅游产业发展之关系有所探讨,但多数研究忽视了信息化对旅游产业发展的空间溢出效应,因而难以准确测量信息化对旅游产业发展的贡献。采用中国大陆31个省份2001-2014年的面板数据,从区域关联的视角构建空间计量模型,测算信息化对旅游产业发展的直接影响和空间溢出影响。结果表明：① 信息化与旅游产业发展均具有显著的空间关联性,传统的计量模型因未考虑个体间的空间交互作用而误估了信息化对旅游产业发展的产出弹性;② 信息化基础设施和信息技术消费对旅游产业发展的作用路径存在差异,单纯的信息化基础设施建设并不一定能促进旅游产业的发展,过度的规模竞争反而会陷入“索洛生产率悖论”;而信息技术消费的提升虽有助于正向的空间溢出,但其空间重构的潜力仍有待释放;③ 固定资产投入、劳动力和旅游接待规模等都是推进旅游产业发展的多维要素,但在信息化的交互影响下,资本和劳动力的空间溢出均不明显,而资源禀赋、环境质量、服务经济占比和产业集聚呈现出显著的负向外溢效应。     

Farmland Abandonment Research Progress: Influencing Factors and Simulation Model

Farmland abandonment is a global problem and considered one of the most important areas in land use change research. Farmland abandonment research currently focuses on understanding the factors that affect farmland abandonment and developing scientific models to simulate farmland abandonment. The study reviewed the natural and political factors driving farmland abandonment and summarized the main models for farmland abandonment simulation together with their advantages and disadvantages. We discuss the main ecological effects of farmland abandonment and propose farmland abandonment research directions. The study found that: (1) the influence of labor cost change and ageing labor force on farmland abandonment needs further investigation, (2) simulation models for farmland abandonment must include the decision-making mechanism of individual farmers and focus on macro large-scale abandonment prediction models, and (3) the influence of farmland abandonment on landscape culture must be investigated in detail.     

Effects of installation on the cyclic axial behaviour of suction buckets in sandy soils

Suction buckets differ with their easy and cost-efficient installation technique from other foundation types for offshore wind turbines. For successful completion of their installation process, suction is essential, but the imposed seepage leads to the changes in states of the soil in and around the bucket. Especially, a loosening of soil inside the bucket affects the load carrying behaviour of bucket subjected to repetitive loading resulting from environmental conditions. In this study, the behaviour of buckets under cyclic axial compressive loads with considering a possible loosening and related changes in permeability of soil inside the bucket is investigated numerically. In the framework of finite element analysis, a fully coupled two-phase model and a hypoplastic constitutive model are used to describe the saturated sandy soil behaviour under repetitive loading. The porosity-permeability variation is taken into account by Kozeny–Carman relationship. Special attention is dedicated to load carrying behaviour of bucket top plate, inner and outer skirt as well as base and their changes resulting from a loosening of soil inside the bucket with variable aspect ratio. For this purpose, cyclic axial compressive loads which cause an attenuation and progressive failure of soil-bucket system response are considered. The main findings on the changes in load carrying behaviour of bucket are presented and discussed.