霍泉灌区出流量预测模型

根据灌溉用水决策支持系统(DSS)和实时配水的要求,建立了霍泉泉源年出流量随机预测模型和月出流量实时预测模型.经分析表明,随机AR(p)预测模型较适合预测泉源的年出流量,月出流量实时预测模型的预测精度也较高     

Empirical Relationships for Debris Flows

The assessment of the debris flow hazard potential has to rely on semi-quantitative methods. Due to the complexity of the debris-flow process, numerical simulation models of debris flows are still limited with regard to practical applications. Thus, an overview is given of empirical relationships that can be used to estimate the most important parameters of debris-flow behavior. In a possible procedure, an assessment of a maximum debris-flow volume may be followed by estimates of the peak discharge, the mean flow velocity, the total travel distance, and the runout distance on the fan. The applicability of several empirical equations is compared with available field and laboratory data, and scaling considerations are used to discuss the variability of the parameters over a large range of values. Some recommendations are made with regard to the application of the presented relationships by practicing engineers, apart from advocating field reconnaissance and searching for historic events wherever possible.     

热废水对大亚湾三种经济鱼类热效应的研究

对大亚湾3种重要经济鱼类包括黑鲷Sparusmacrocephalus、平鲷Rhabdosargussarba和细鳞Theraponjarbua的多项温度指标进行室内热效应模拟研究。结果表明：在驯化温度为25—33℃条件下,黑鲷、平鲷和细鳞3种鱼类的起始致死温度分别为34．96─36．42,34．78─35.62,38．75─39.39℃;最高起始致死温度分别为36.35,35.52℃和39.32℃;临界热最大值分别为38．08─40.50,38．28─40.40℃和42.40─43.64℃;最适生长温度分别为28,28℃和32℃;生长的最高周平均温度分别为30．78,30.51℃和34．44℃;短期暴露最高温度分别为34.04,33.57℃和37．90℃。根据黑鲷、平鲷和细鳞的多项温度指标,结合这些鱼类的生活习性分析和大亚湾基本环境特征的调查资料,就大亚湾核电站温排水对渔业资源影响的热效应问题进行初步探讨。     

Threshold criterion for debris flow initiation in seasonal gullies

A series of flume experiments were done to investigate the effect of grain composition on the critical gradient and discharge of debris flows initiated in seasonal gullies. The results indicated that the critical gradient and discharge for debris flow initiation decrease initially, and then increase as the mass content of fine particles (<2 mm) increases. As the mass content of fine particles increases, the angle of repose, permeability of widely graded gravel soils, and the incipient motion conditions of the coarse grains in non-uniform sediments decrease at first, and then increase. The mass content of fine particles of all inflection points is the same. The theoretical model based on the combination of hydrodynamic force and shear stress is more applicable to the prediction of the critical gradient for debris flow initiation. The critical discharge model considering the effect of non-homogeneity of the soil and the size of coarse and fine grains provides a more accurate prediction of debris flow initiation than other models based on the mean diameter.     

基于裂隙尖端放电机制的深部岩体损伤自电特征分析

在大规模深部岩体损伤过程中发生的裂隙尖端放电现象往往引发地下雷电,对该现象发生机理、表现规律的揭示有助于地震、岩爆等的临灾预报.不同于在岩土体中液固耦合界面上发生的自然电场异常机理,在岩土体内部发生的裂隙尖端放电可谓是引发自然电场异常的另一重要微观机制.本文基于现有裂隙尖端放电的研究成果,详细阐述了裂隙尖端放电发生的过程,解释了岩体损伤过程中自然电场异常产生的微观机理,并结合室内实验成果论述了自电位的主要特征;进行了理论推导,认为在大尺度岩体连续损伤过程中,自电位具有含脉冲状波动并整体下降的特征;开展了原位测试,结果证明人工采掘扰动下的深部岩体连续破坏的过程中,自电位在破坏前期缓慢下降,在破坏过程中会出现脉冲状波动,随着破坏程度的加剧整体呈现波动中下降的规律,与理论推导、室内实验结论都相符.对比室内实验和原位测试成果发现,随着研究目标的空间尺度由mm级别扩展到m的级别,自电位波动的幅值也从数十个mV扩展到数百甚至上千mV,故认为在利用自电位波动规律来预测岩体破坏状态时,须受研究对象的空间尺度的约束.此外,在原位测试中发现,自电位对岩体损伤过程的响应较直流电阻率而言具有时域上的超前优势,并对此现象进行了解释.     

野鸭山至螺头山岸段海域水沙特征及冲淤变化

根据浙江舟山野鸭山至螺头山岸段海域4个测点的海流观测和含沙量调查(其中1个测点)资料,含沙量用1/10000感量的电光分析天平称量测定,悬沙粒度用AT 型库尔特计数器测定,底质表层泥样用激光粒度仪测定,使用DS3水准仪(其精度标准为四等)测量岸段潮滩高程,对该岸段所在海域的泥沙与潮流特征进行了对比分析并讨论了岸滩的冲淤变化。结果表明,该海域悬沙浓度由表层往底层逐渐增高,且与流速有一定的线性关系;中潮悬沙浓度低于大潮,冬季悬沙浓度高于春、夏季;大、中潮的落潮输沙量大于涨潮,大潮涨、落潮的输沙量大于中潮涨、落潮,大潮全潮单宽净输沙量大于中潮;冬季平均悬沙粒径比夏季大,春季适中;春、夏、冬季悬沙的分选系数属分选极好;悬沙的运移路径以落潮流流向为净输沙的方向;该海域的潮流为往复流,涨潮流历时短于落潮流历时,春、夏、冬季平均落潮流速大于平均涨潮流速,最大流速为1.82m/s(夏季),平均流速为0.70m/s;历史上野鸭山至螺头山的古海湾一直缓慢淤涨,1987年以来,潮滩仍缓慢淤涨,中潮滩平均淤高值约为3cm/a,岸滩平均淤进速度约为0.38m/a。     

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.     

强震临震微波动现象初步研究(二)

为了验证和检验强震临震微波动现象及其主要特征,利用甘、青、川、滇、藏等区域台网200余个宽频带数字地震台站的波形资料,建立了实时监控技术系统。通过对2012~2014年间青藏块体发生的24次5级以上地震及部分无震区域台站观测的全程实时跟踪、动态监控,检验和验证了临震微波动现象的重现性和客观性,验证了临震微波动现象的频谱、时间、空间、方向性等特征,进一步得出了临震微波动现象可能与地震强度有关,且震级越大,震前出现持续临震微波动的可能性越大的结论。     

挑坎体型对下游雾化影响的试验研究

以解决挑流消能工在泄洪期间为提高消能率而加重下游雾化问题为目标,探究不同体型挑坎的下游雾化特性。通过水力学模型试验,对典型的非对称舌型坎、标准舌型坎、扭面贴坎和连续坎的下游水舌风分布、下游溅水雨强和不同液滴体积分布以及挑流水舌水力特性与冲刷特性进行了研究。研究表明:①各种工况下,非对称舌型坎、标准舌型坎、扭面贴坎的下游水舌风风速均大于连续坎。②对于非对称舌型坎,其溢洪道轴线左侧溅水强度大于右侧,其雨强左右两侧峰值差值最大为5.625 g/(m 2·min);对于扭面贴坎,其溢洪道轴线右侧溅水强度更大,其雨强左右两侧峰值差值最大为45.125 g/(m 2·min)。③随着距离水舌入水点长度增大,大粒径水滴数量和体积占比均剧烈下降;连续坎和舌型坎的挑宽均随着角度的增加而增加;冲坑深度随着角度的减小而增大。④在挑坎合适边墙侧设置扭面贴角能改善下游雾化危害,同时适当增加挑角可以减弱下游冲刷破坏。