太阳活动百年尺度的跃变与气候跃变的相关分析

讨论了２５００多年来太阳黑子周期长度（ＳＣＬ）的跃变特征,发现有在年尺度上ＳＣＬ基本在平均值附近变化,而其变率则存在明显的跃变现象,当ＳＣＬ的变率增大时,气候随之发生冷跃变,反之,则发生暖跃变。小冰期内,太阳活动弱且不稳定,与地球气候冷且不稳定具有同时性。     

小波分析在大气边界层结构研究中的应用实例

将小波分析的方法应用于大气边界层风、温场结构的研究,表明了这种方法应用于大气边界层研究的优越性。小波分析方法与谱分析方法,多尺度分析方法可以互补。当研究不同尺度湍流的串级过程和突变气象场的位置时,小波方法更为优越。     

尺度参数的Lp估计与精度评定

根据定位参数与尺度参数的联合Ｍ估计,导出了尺度参数的Ｌｐ估计;当ｐ＝２时,与最小二乘估计一致,观测数据服从正态分布时,为最优无偏估计;由于尺度参数Ｌｐ估计的影响函数为无界函数,估计不具抗差性,但把残差Ｗｉｎｓｏｒ化,作者得到了尺度参数的抗差Ｌｐ估计;依据定位参数的协方差阵,可进行Ｌｐ估计的精度评定。这些结果对于Ｌｐ估计的研究和应用具有一定的参考价值。     

Frontogenesis, evolution and the time scale of front formation

Ｆｒｏｎｔｏｇｅｎｅｓｉｓ,ＥｖｏｌｕｔｉｏｎａｎｄｔｈｅＴｉｍｅＳｃａｌｅｏｆＦｒｏｎｔＦｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎＦａｎｇＪｕａｎ（方娟）ａｎｄＷｕＲｏｎｇｓｈｅｎｇ（伍荣生）ＳｅｖｅｒｅＭｅｓｏｓｃａｌｅｍｅｔｅｏｒｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＬａｂ...     

Frequency response of tiltmeters and tidal factor

The relation of tidal factor value to tiltmeter type has been founded from the harmonic analysis for observational data. The relation is deducted theoretically. It is discovered that the frequency responses of different type tiltmeters and operative periods or damping constant are slightly different in same station. The tiltmeter of small operative period is able to receive more precursory information. That is the tidal factors obtained from harmonic analysis for observed data on tiltmeter of different damping constant are different. The relation between frequency response and tidal factor is searched. It is necessary to calibrate absolutely tiltmeter to predict earthquake. In order to obtain any amount of ground tilt information, it is necessary to select appropriately different frequency tiltmeters to make comprehensive observation. The study is sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation, No. 91100.     

GIS制图中标准图框的机助生成

主要介绍了我国基本比例尺地形图的分幅与编号以及机助生成标准图廓（标准图框）的数学基础和生成过程,最后还简要地介绍了ＭＡＰＧＩＳ标准图框生成程序及其应用．     

苏北溱潼凹陷戴南组二段成岩作用与次生孔隙预测

成岩作用研究表明,戴南组二段成岩作用类型主要有机械压实、胶结、交代、溶解、粘土矿物充填等,并进行了各成岩作用对孔隙改造规模的统计。成岩作用阶段的划分,采纳了中华人民共和国石油天然气行业标准,将戴南组二段划分为早成岩Ｂ期和晚成岩Ａ期两个阶段。次生孔隙的发育、分布与泥岩压实曲线的紧密压实、大量脱水阶段或有机质的成熟阶段、生油门限以及混层粘土的第一迅速转化带有着密切联系,从而成为次生孔隙预测的着眼点。     

Variogram Fitting by Generalized Least Squares Using an Explicit Formula for the Covariance Structure

In the context of spatial statistics, the classical variogram estimator proposed by Matheron can be written as a quadratic form of the observations. If data are Gaussian with constant mean, then the correlation between the classical variogram estimator at two different lags is a function of the spatial design matrix and the variance matrix. When data are independent with unidimensional and regular support, an explicit formula for this correlation is available. The same is true for a multidimensional and regular support as can be shown by using Kronecker products of matrices. As variogram fitting is a crucial stage for correct spatial prediction, it is proposed to use a generalized least squares method with an explicit formula for the covariance structure (GLSE). A good approximation of the covariance structure is achieved by taking account of the explicit formula for the correlation in the independent situation. Simulations are carried out with several types of underlying variograms, as well as with outliers in the data. Results show that this technique (GLSE), combined with a robust estimator of the variogram, improves the fit significantly.     

时间尺度的分域递推模型

建立时间尺度是时间测量的目的之一．实时原子时则要求对时间尺度进行必要的预测．小波分析是近年来迅速发展起来的一门学科,它可以对信号在不同的分辨率下进行分析,凡是传统的Fourier分析可以应用的地方,小波分析都可以得到应用．基于小波分析建立了一种时间尺度分域递推模型,这种方法既不同于ARMA（p,q）模型,又有别于卡尔曼滤波方法．ARMA模型要求过程是平稳随机的,而卡尔曼滤波方法虽然不要求过程是平稳的,但它预测的精度有限．分城递推模型将信号在不同的频率尺度进行正交分解,在各个尺度上对小波变换系数进行建模．最后根据陕西天文台守时实验室的实测数据,验证了分域递推模型,ARMA模型一步预测误差10ns,而分域递推模型五步预测误差平均为4．5ns．结果表明这种方法简单而切实可行,分域递推模型的预测精度优于其它方法．