甘肃中东部地震滑坡灾害的机制与预防

通过对甘肃中东部大量地震滑坡的成灾机制分析,按形成时代将滑坡分为新滑坡、老滑坡和古滑坡;按物质组成、滑体厚度及滑床位置又可分为浅层黄土滑坡和深层切层滑坡。该地区地震滑坡的主要危险来自新滑坡和浅层黄土滑坡,滑坡成灾机制复杂,与许多因素有关。地震滑坡主要特征是成灾时间短,规模大;灾害持续时间长、反复性大;易引发次生灾害。预防地震滑坡是防震减灾工作中的一项重要任务。     

全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃背景下北京市暴雨洪涝淹没风险研究

基于第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)的5个气候模式模拟结果,结合FloodArea模型,对RCP8.5情景下全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃时,北京市极端降水和淹没风险进行分析。结果表明：北京市极端降水量呈从西南向东北逐渐减少的分布趋势。在升温2.0℃时,极端降水和淹没风险增加较升温1.5℃时明显,郊区极端降水增加最明显的地区是房山和门头沟,城区极端降水量增加最明显的地区是海淀、石景山和丰台区。海淀区出现一级和二级淹没风险的面积最大,其次是丰台和石景山区。郊区的延庆和怀柔是发生一级淹没风险面积最大的地区。     

灾害性天气总结中存在的问题和关键要点分析

为了帮助预报员加深对灾害性天气的认识并提高其预报预测准确率,联系近2～3年来武汉中心气象台灾害性天气总结实际,分析了灾害性天气总结中存在的若干问题,并对其原因进行了简要剖析;在此基础上,以若干灾害性天气总结为例,归纳了灾害性天气总结的关键要点,即从预报业务实践中提炼科学问题,综合应用多种探测资料,重视灾害性天气数值模拟和试验研究,加强灾害性天气形成机理研究,尝试灾害性天气三维结构和物理图像的总结,加强灾害性天气可预报性问题探讨,注重灾害性天气预报思路和着眼点的总结;最后,就如何做好灾害性天气总结和充分发挥其效益,提出了几点建议。     

探讨灾害规律的理论基础--极端气候事件概率

分析了国内外极端气候事件研究的现状,从经典极值分布理论、极值分布模式的参数估计、广义极值分布等方面,阐述了近年来国际上常用的理论及研究方法。为了更好地佐证进行极端气候事件发生概率研究的重要性,列举了作者在该领域的一些成功研究成果,并认为极端气候事件概率问题是探讨气象灾害规律的理论基础。     

云状判断中易出现的几种误记

春干旱、夏高温、秋阴雨是对临汾丘陵旱地区杂交玉米制种危害最大的3种灾害性天气。根据十多年的制种实践，提出了从抓改革耕作制度，增施有机肥等培肥地力，提水保墒，确保按期播种，培育壮苗，提高制种田的抗灾能力，以求这一地区杂交玉米制种平稳、健壮发展。     

1990—2012年浙江省台风灾害的自然属性与社会属性特征

利用1990—2012年影响浙江省的41个台风统计资料,分析了浙江省台风灾害成因中自然属性和社会属性特征。结果表明,台风导致的灾害程度与其带来的风雨潮密切相关,其中平均降雨量、降雨量极值与直接经济损失的相关系数分别为0.509 6和0.584 1。当台风登陆中心附近最大风速达到30 m/s及以上时,灾害程度会明显加重。准确及时的气象监测预报服务是防御台风最重要的依据。倒塌房屋数量与死亡人数密切相关,相关系数达到了0.862 5。防汛抗台设施的高标准建设有效减轻了台风的灾害损失。2000年以来,浙江省台风灾害导致的直接经济损失占本省国内生产总值比例呈现下降趋势。政府防御指挥水平是减轻灾害的重要保障,其中,转移人口等防灾措施有效减少了人员伤亡。     

0509号台风暴雨过程分析与暴雨灾害评估

针对2005年8月8～10日辽宁区域性台风暴雨过程,以常规气象资料、自动站资料及卫星云图资料为基础进行分析。结果表明:暴雨是台风、副热带高压与西风槽相互作用的结果,较好的水汽条件是产生台风暴雨的重要条件之一,低空急流是水汽输送的通道,也是台风暴雨的明显特征之一;结合单站气压连续变化以及云系变化判断“麦莎”登陆时间地点;应用基于概率分析的暴雨事件快速评估模型对暴雨灾害进行评估,评估表明暴雨过程为三级暴雨灾害,属中度级别。     

我国核电厂设计中考虑的自然灾害综述与建议

我国是目前世界在建核电机组最多的国家,总装机容量世界第三,是名副其实的核大国,核安全是国家安全的重要内容,被提到了前所未有的高度。同时,我国也是世界上自然灾害最严重的国家之一,包括核电厂在内的重大工程建设高度重视自然灾害防御设计。日本311地震海啸引起福岛核事故后,核电厂设计中增强了对超设计基准自然灾害的考虑。本文对核电厂防御自然灾害的必要性、核电厂设计中需考虑的自然灾害及国内外核电厂关于防御自然灾害存在的问题进行研究,提出我国核电厂防御自然灾害的建议。     

Cascades of green: A review of ecosystem-based adaptation in urban areas

Climate change impacts increase pressure on challenges to sustainability and the developmental needs of cities. Conventional, “hard” adaptation measures are often associated with high costs, inflexibility and conflicting interests related to the dense urban fabric, and ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) has emerged as a potentially cost-efficient, comprehensive, and multifunctional approach. This paper reviews and systematises research on urban EbA. We propose an analytical framework that draws on theory from ecosystem services, climate change adaptation and sustainability science. It conceptualises EbA in terms of five linked components: ecological structures, ecological functions, adaptation benefits, valuation, and ecosystem management practices.Our review identified 110 articles, reporting on 112 cities, and analysed them using both quantitative statistical and qualitative content analysis. We found that EbA research in an urban context is fragmented due to different disciplinary approaches and concepts. Most articles focus on heat or flooding, and the most studied ecological structures for reducing the risk of such hazards are green space, wetlands, trees and parks. EbA is usually evaluated in bio-geophysical terms and the use of economic or social valuations are rare. While most articles do not mention specific practices for managing ecological structures, those that do imply that urban EbA strategies are increasingly being integrated into institutional structures. Few articles considered issues of equity or stakeholder participation in EbA.We identified the following challenges for future EbA research. First, while the large amount of data generated by isolated case studies contributes to systems knowledge, there is a lack of systems perspectives that position EbA in relation to the wider socio-economic and bio-geophysical context. Second, normative and ethical aspects of EbA require more thought, such as who are the winners and losers, especially in relation to processes that put people at risk from climate-related hazards. Third, there is room for more forward-looking EbA research, including consideration of future scenarios, experimentation in the creation of new ecological structures and the role of EbA in transformative adaptation.     

Community‐Derived Standards for LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb Geochronology – Uncertainty Propagation,Age Interpretation and Data Reporting

The LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb geochronology international community has defined new standards for the determination of U‐(Th‐)Pb ages. A new workflow defines the appropriate propagation of uncertainties for these data, identifying random and systematic components. Only data with uncertainties relating to random error should be used in weighted mean calculations of population ages; uncertainty components for systematic errors are propagated after this stage, preventing their erroneous reduction. Following this improved uncertainty propagation protocol, data can be compared at different uncertainty levels to better resolve age differences. New reference values for commonly used zircon, monazite and titanite reference materials are defined (based on ID‐TIMS) after removing corrections for common lead and the effects of excess ²³⁰Th. These values more accurately reflect the material sampled during the determination of calibration factors by LA‐ICP‐MS analysis. Recommendations are made to graphically represent data only with uncertainty ellipses at 2s and to submit or cite validation data with sample data when submitting data for publication. New data‐reporting standards are defined to help improve the peer‐review process. With these improvements, LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb data can be considered more robust, accurate, better documented and quantified, directly contributing to their improved scientific interpretation.