Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)

The purpose of the present study is the analysis of landslide risk for roads and buildings in a small test site (20 km²) in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). For this purpose, an evaluation is performed integrating into a GIS information obtained from multiple sources: (i) landslide hazard; (ii) elements at risk; and (iii) vulnerability. Landslide hazard is assessed on a probabilistic basis for three different types of slope movement (shallow translational slides, translational slides and rotational slides), based on some assumptions such as: (i) the likelihood of future landslide occurrence can be measured through statistical relationships between past landslide distribution and specified spatial data sets considered as landslide predisposing factors; and (ii) the rainfall combination (amount–duration) responsible for past slope instability within the test site will produce the same effects (i.e. same type of landslides and similar total affected area), each time they occur in the future. When the return period of rainfall triggering events is known, different scenarios can be modelled, each one ascribed to a specific return period. Therefore, landslide hazard is quantitatively assessed on a raster basis, and is expressed as the probability for each pixel (25 m²) to be affected by a future landslide, considering a rainfall triggering scenario with a specific return period. Elements at risk within the test site include 2561 buildings and roads amounting to 169 km. Values attributed to elements at risk were defined considering reconstruction costs, following the guidelines of the Portuguese Insurance Institute. Vulnerability is considered as the degree of loss to a given element resulting from the occurrence of a landslide of a given magnitude. Vulnerability depends not only on structural properties of exposed elements, but also on the type of process, and its magnitude; i.e., vulnerability cannot be defined in absolute terms, but only with respect to a specific process (e.g. vulnerability to shallow translational slides). Therefore, vulnerability was classified for the three landslide groups considered on hazard assessment, taking into account: (i) landslide magnitude (mean depth, volume, velocity); (ii) damage levels produced by past landslide events in the study area; and (iii) literature. Finally, a landslide risk analysis considering direct costs was made in an automatic way crossing the following three layers: (i) Probabilistic hazard map for a landslide type Z, considering a particular rainfall triggering scenario whose return period is known; (ii) Vulnerability map (values from 0 to 1) of the exposed elements to landslide type Z; and (iii) Value map of the exposed elements, considering reconstruction costs.     

海浪的动态视觉仿真

对海浪液面位移模型的建模方法进行了研究,利用Phillips谱分析方法,建立了受风场和海底地形等因素影响下的海浪波面位移模型,提出了2D FFT的优化方法,提高了计算机的执行效率,解决了海浪数字仿真中的动态数据生成问题,并最终实现了不同分辨率海浪模块的拼接和渲染。     

A Practical Indirect Back Analysis Approach for Geomechanical Parameters Identification

Back analysis is a powerful tool to determine geomechanical parameters. In this article, a practical approach that employs the response surface method and MS Excel solver for back analysis is presented. The least square support vector machine (LSSVM)-based response surface is utilized to represent the nonlinear relationship between the geomechanical parameters and the monitored information and Excel solver is used to search the geomechanical parameters based on the monitoring information. We analyze the robustness and search ability of the proposed approach. On the other hand, two numerical cases on a circular tunnel and a slope are used to verify the proposed approach. Results clearly indicate that LSSVM-based response surface is effectively able to be used to identify the geomechanical parameters from the monitoring displacements.     

An approximate Riemann solver for sensitivity equations with discontinuous solutions

The sensitivity of a model output (called a variable) to a parameter can be defined as the partial derivative of the variable with respect to the parameter. When the governing equations are not differentiable with respect to this parameter, problems arise in the numerical solution of the sensitivity equations, such as locally infinite values or instability. An approximate Riemann solver is thus proposed for direct sensitivity calculation for hyperbolic systems of conservation laws in the presence of discontinuous solutions. The proposed approach uses an extra source term in the form of a Dirac function to restore sensitivity balance across the shocks. It is valid for systems such as the Euler equations for gas dynamics or the shallow water equations for free surface flow. The method is first detailed and its application to the shallow water equations is proposed, with some test cases such as dike- or dam-break problems with or without source terms. An application to a two-dimensional flow problem illustrates the superiority of direct sensitivity calculation over the classical empirical approach.     

基于局部加密非结构化网格的三维电阻率法有限元数值模拟

总结了目前常用的结构化网格及其局限性,分析了非结构化网格对复杂地质体边界的适应性和Delaunay三角化算法及其网格加密策略,提出了一种新的局部节点加密方法,实现了对复杂模型的完全非结构化四面体全自动剖分,给出了三维直流电阻率模拟中四面体网格的质量评价标准和最优指标.计算和分析表明,数值解在点电流源及附近的奇异区精度最低,网格加密策略可以有效地减少其影响,极大地提高数值解的精度.本文提出的局部节点加密策略计算量最小,对精度的改善也优于经典方法.在精度要求苛刻或模型十分复杂时,局部体积加密策略和二次单元是高精度模拟的可靠保证.     

Quantification of aquatic sediment prokaryotes—A multiple-steps optimization testing sands from pristine and contaminated aquifers

The total number of prokaryotic cells in aquatic sediments is a crucial measure tightly linked to energetic constraints, microbial productivity, and ecosystem status. While counting cells in water samples is routine, reliable procedures for the determination of prokaryotic cells associated to aquatic sediments are especially needed. A protocol for the direct quantification of prokaryotic cell abundance in aquatic sediments was developed and tested with sandy material from pristine and contaminated aquifers. Individual steps required in sample preparation, including preservation, cell dislodgement, density gradient centrifugation providing sample purification, and staining, were critically evaluated and optimized. Quantification of cells is conducted by flow cytometry promoting a high-throughput sample processing. Although tested for only two different types of aquifer sediments, researchers may easily adapt the protocol for their individual samples and purposes, thus conducting a brief efficiency re-evaluation of individual steps highlighted in this study.     

Shallow sediment transport flow computation using time-varying sediment adaptation length

Based on the common approach,the adaptation length in sediment transport is normally estimated astemporally independent.However,this approach might not be theoretically justified as the process of reaching the sediment transport equilibrium stage is affected by the flow conditions in time,especially for fast moving flows,such as scour-hole developing flows.In this study,the two-dimensional（2D） shallow water formulation together with a sediment continuity-concentration（SCC） model were applied to flow with mobile sediment boundary.A timevarying approach was proposed to determine the sediment transport adaptation length to simulate the sediment erosion-deposition rate.The proposed computational model was based on the Finite Volume（FV） method.The Monotone Upwind Scheme of Conservative Laws（MUSCL）-Hancock scheme was used with the Harten Lax van Leer-contact（HLLC） approximate Riemann solver to discretize the FV model.In the flow applications of this paper,a highly discontinuous dam-break,fast sediment transport flow was used to calibrate the proposed timevarying sediment adaptation length model.Then the calibrated model was further applied to two separate experimental sediment transport flow applications documented in the literature,i.e.a highly concentrated sediment transport flow in a wide alluvial channel and a sediment aggradation flow.Good agreement with the experimental data were obtained with the proposed model simulations.The tests prove that the proposed model,which was calibrated by the discontinuous dam-break bed scouring flow,also performed well to represent rapid bed change and steady sediment mobility conditions.     

多震源地震数据偏移成像方法

多震源地震技术是一种高效的地震数据采集方法技术,得到的地震记录是来自多个震源的混合地震数据.本文在多震源波场传播理论和地震波场满足线性叠加原理的基础上,提出了两种多震源地震数据的偏移成像方法.第一种方法是首先对多震源地震数据进行分离,得到各个单震源的地震数据,然后再利用常规的偏移成像方法进行处理;第二种方法是多震源地震数据的直接偏移成像.把本文提出的多震源偏移成像方法应用于数值模拟的多震源地震数据,验证了本文方法的正确性和有效性,直接偏移成像方法较分离后再偏移方法具有更高的计算效率.     

东亚地区人为气溶胶直接辐射强迫及其气候效应的数值模拟

利用耦合化学过程的区域气候模式RegCM3,模拟研究3种主要人为排放气溶胶(硫酸盐、黑碳、有机碳)对东亚区域气候的影响.计算分析近20 a来3种气溶胶的时空分布、综合辐射强迫作用及其对地面气温和降水的影响.模拟结果表明:3种气溶胶冬夏季分布有所不同,冬季气溶胶大值区主要分布在南方地区,而夏季大值区北移;气溶胶短波辐射强迫在大气层顶和地面均为负值;气溶胶的加入对东亚地区地表气温有明显影响,冬季降温中心位于四川盆地,夏季降温大值区位于华北地区.气溶胶直接气候效应使得冬季东亚大部分地区降水减少,夏季东亚地区降水与中国南方地区夏季气溶胶浓度有较好的相关关系,中国东部雨带有南移趋势.