宁波地区空气质量及大气自净能力海陆差异对比

以镇海、奉化分别作为宁波沿海和内陆空气质量代表站。基于代表站2013-2017年污染物资料和2015年12月至2017年2月冬季激光雷达资料,对比分析宁波地区沿海和内陆站点的空气质量差异;利用NCEP的GDAS(Global Data Assimilation System)资料和ERA-Interim高分辨率再分析资料评估两地气溶胶来源及大气自净能力差异。结果表明:宁波沿海和内陆地区中度及以上污染主要集中于冬季,冬季首要污染物以PM2.5为主;镇海NO2浓度较奉化显著偏高,而两地PM2.5 和PM10 浓度差异较小。冬季镇海和奉化3km以下都存在消光系数大的气溶胶集中层,镇海3km内消光系数平均值较奉化偏高约40%。两地中度及以上污染时,镇海和奉化的气溶胶粒子主要来自宁波西北方向的内陆地区,比例分别为90%和63%,镇海地区其余10%左右来自近距离低空偏东气流的输送,而奉化地区有37%来自浙江西南部的短距离输送。冬季当宁波地区出现区域性优和中度以上污染时,浙江北部沿海分别盛行东北风和西北风,空气质量优时混合层内平均风速大于中度以上污染时。浙江省大气自净能力比值呈自西北向东南减小,宁波地区优等空气质量大气自净能力约为中度以上污染的 1.5倍。大气自净能力在不同空气质量等级下差异显著,可作为大气污染发生、发展和消退判定的参考依据。     

Response of ocean dynamics to multiple equilibria of the Kuroshio path South of Japan

Variability of the Kuroshio path to the south of Japan plays a central role in the local climate change and exerts tremendous influences on the local atmosphere and ocean. In this study, the response of ocean dynamics, in terms of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE), potential vorticity (PV), relative vorticity, and eddy-mean flow interaction, to the Kuroshio path change is discussed. Kuroshio path south of Japan includes the near-shore non-large meander (nNLM), the off-shore non-large meander (oNLM), and the typical large meander (tLM). Analyses reveal that the distribution of EKE, PV, relative vorticity, and energy exchange between the eddy field and the mean flow respectively varies with the Kuroshio path: (1) The tLM has the maximum EKE along the path; (2) The positive and negative PV are located at the onshore and offshore side of Kuroshio axis, respevetively; (3) The distributions of anomalous relative voritcity of nNLM, oNLM, and tLM are consistent with sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs); (4) The tLM has the largest energy exchange between the eddy field and the mean flow in terms of the rate of barotropic energy conversion. On the other hand, the stability analysis of ocean currents suggests that the three Kuroshio paths south of Japan have their own intrinsic properties of the instability.     

Climate change perceptions and their individual-level determinants: A cross-European analysis

There is now an extensive literature on the question of how individual-level factors affect climate change perceptions, showing that socio-political variables, notably values, worldviews and political orientation, are key factors alongside demographic variables. Yet little is known about cross-national differences in these effects, as most studies have been conducted in a single or small number of countries and cross-study comparisons are difficult due to different conceptualisations of key climate change dimensions. Using data from the European Social Survey Round 8 (n = 44,387), we examine how key socio-political and demographic factors are associated with climate change perception across 22 European countries and Israel. We show that human values and political orientation are important predictors of climate change beliefs and concern, as are the demographics of gender, age, and education. Certain associations with climate change perceptions, such as the ones for the self-transcendence versus self-enhancement value dimension, political orientation, and education, are more consistent across countries than for gender and age. However, even if the direction of the associations are to a large extent consistent, the sizes of the effects are not. We demonstrate that the sizes of the effects are generally smaller in Central and Eastern European countries, and that some demographic effects are larger in Northern European as compared to Western European countries. This suggests that findings from one country do not always generalize to other national contexts.     

基于ARMA模型的广元市中区经济增长预测分析

利用广元市市中区1978年到2004年GDP数据,构建了广元市市中区时间序列趋势的ARMA模型.在此基础上,对广元市市中区2006年到2010年未来5年内的GDP进行了预测,并针对该区"十一五"规划的各项目标任务提出了一些对策建议,为广元市市中区未来的发展提供参考依据.     

PARAMETER AND VARIANCE ESTIMATION IN GEOTECHNICAL BACKANALYSIS USING PRIOR INFORMATION

A probabilistic framework to perform inverse analysis of geotechnical problems is presented. The formulation allows the incorporation of existing prior information on the parameters in a consistent way. The method is based on the maximum likelihood approach that allows a straightforward introduction of the error structure of field measurements and prior information. The difficulty of ascribing definite values to the uncertainties associated with the various types of observations is overcome by including the corresponding variances in the set of parameters to be identified. The inverse analysis results in a minimization problem that is solved by coupling the optimization technique to the finite element method. Two examples are presented to illustrate the performance of the method. The first one corresponds to a synthetic case simulating the excavation of a tunnel. Young's modulus, K₀ value and measurements variances are identified. The second case concerns the excavation of a large underground cavern in which again Young's modulus and K₀ are identified. It is shown that introduction of prior information permits the estimation of parameters more consistent with all available informations that include not only monitored displacements but also results from in situ tests carried out during the site investigation stage.     

THE ‘NEW IMPLICIT METHOD’ FOR TUNNEL ANALYSIS

Tunnel excavation is a coupled three-dimensional problem dealing with two different structures: lining and rockmass. For a simple application it is useful to develop simplified methods by treating the problem as plane strain. If the problem of tunnel face advance presents an axisymmetric geometry, then we show that the major parameter governing the ground–interface–lining interaction is the convergence of the tunnel U₀ at the moment of the lining installation. The ‘New Implicit Method’ (NIM) presented in this paper makes use of principles similar to those of the ‘convergence–confinement’ method, but it provides a better appreciation of the coupled behaviour of rockmass and lining. For independent time constitutive laws (elasticity and plasticity), we point out that the convergence U₀ depends not only on the mechanical behaviour of the rockmass and on the distance from the tunnel face, as predicted by the ‘convergence–confinement’ method, but also on the stiffness of the lining previously set. We present the ‘NIM’ for elastic and perfect elastoplastic rockmasses without dilatancy for many criteria. The development of this new method is based on the results of tunnel calculations with an axisymmetric FEM numerical model that takes into account the three-dimensional aspect of the problem. Using this method is simple and its results agree well with the FEM numerical results. Its accuracy is highly satisfactory for a geotechnical study.     

基于GIS的城市人防工程空间分析模型的建立与实现

为提高城市人防工程的管理水平,利用地理信息系统技术(GIS)的空间分析功能,首先在分析城市人防工程的实体—关系模型(E-R模型)的基础上,根据GIS空间分析的特点,提出了基于空间分析的城市人防工程的数据库结构;其次,根据城市人防工程规划、管理和施工的需要,建立了城市人防工程设备的承载力、辐射范围缓冲图、人口疏散隐蔽路线最佳路径、地下人防工程3维分析等几种空间分析模型,并对各种模型的表示内容和实现方法进行了阐述,从而实现了城市人防工程的可视化和动态化管理。该模型在广州市人防工程综合管理信息系统应用后,提高了广州市的城市人防工程的管理水平,促进了该人防办的数字化进程。     

Plio-Pleistocene sedimentation in coastal grabens,north-east Rhodes,Greece

The stratigraphy of marine Plio-Pleistocene sediments from northeast Rhodes (Dodecanese islands, Greece) is revised in the light of facies mapping and the recognition of three major transgression–regression cycles. Before late Pliocene submergence, metamorphosed Mesozoic limestones formed a high-relief karstic landscape. During subsequent transgressions, subsiding basins with spectacular cliffed and bioeroded margins were infilled by a mosaic of carbonate-dominated sediments, sourced by high rates of carbonate productivity on narrow shelves rimming the basins and their drowning islands. Periods of relative sea-level fall superimposed a complex series of ‘fossil’ coastal geomorphological features such as cliffs, abrasion platforms, surf caves, notches, boulder beaches and palaeokarsts. These created the rugged present day topography of the island's northeast coast. Three main lithostratigraphic units, the Kritika, Rhodes and Lindos Acropolis Formations, are defined. The Rhodes and Lindos Acropolis Formations are subdivided into mappable facies groups rather than members, as the lithofacies are strongly diachronous. The Kritika and Rhodes Formations were each subaerially exposed and partly eroded before re-transgression. Although there is a general pattern of lithological succession, details vary across the study area and some facies groups are restricted in development, indicating differences in tectonic behaviour and palaeo-geomorphology between neighbouring basins. A preliminary process-response model is presented for the sedimentation history of the Rhodes and Lindos Acropolis Formations, using sedimentological, palaeontological, palaeoecological and ichnological data.     

Devensian Late-glacial and early Flandrian environmental history of the Vale of Pickering,Yorkshire, England

Pollen, sedimentological and charcoal particle analyses are presented from Devensian Late-glacial and early- to mid-Flandrian deposits from a former lake in the Vale of Pickering, Yorkshire. The combined analytical methods provide evidence for a short-lived climatic deterioration towards the end of the Late-glacial Interstadial, followed by a brief recovery prior to the Loch Lomond Stadial. This deterioration may be correlated with one of the ‘pre-Younger Dryas’ cooling periods identified not only in other pollen sequences from Britain and Europe, but from such diverse sources as Foraminifera from the Norwegian Sea and electrical conductivity measurements from the Greenland ice sheet. Loss-on-ignition and magnetic susceptibility data suggest that the Loch Lomond Stadial was characterised by an initial prolonged temperature decline, followed by a sudden more severe downturn resulting in particularly intense solifluction. Radiocarbon accelerator dating of the early Flandrian marl deposits illustrates the problem of age determination in calcareous lakes, and an estimate of the magnitude of ‘hard water error’ is obtained. The local population expansion of Alnus glutinosa is dated to 7640 ± 85 yr BP, but there is possible evidence for a Late-glacial presence of the tree, the significance of which is discussed in relation to other sites in east Yorkshire. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

使用因子分析方法研究九江5.7级地震前的地震活动异常

使用2005年11月26日江西九江5.7级地震前震中附近地区的地震资料, 选择反映地震活动时、 空、 强特征的地震频次N(M_L≥3.0)、 b值、 η值、 A(b)值、 Mf值、 Ac值、 C值和D值参量进行因子分析。 这些参量之间具有一定的相关性, 各参量在不同时段的变化各有所异, 预报效果并不理想。 但是根据因子分析可以得到反映地震活动时、 空、 强特征的综合指标W_fa值, 该指标在九江5.7级地震前出现明显的异常变化。 表明综合指标W_fa值可以较好地反映地震活动的异常特征。 文中还对与因子分析结果的有关问题进行了讨论。