Seismic hazard of Egypt

Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude,M _max, annual activity rate,, andb value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude 3 from the time interval 320–1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt.b-values of 1.2 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 ± 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 ± 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 ± 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 ± 0.3 for a time span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas.     

Deep structure of the Central Alps in the light of recent seismic data

The deep seismic reflection traverses across the Central Alps (NFP 20, ECORS-CROP) contain a new set of data on the lower crust which has been interpreted in different ways. One currently fashionable model depicts the European lower crust (ELC) as gently dipping below the Adriatic crust. However, this model requires that an observed sharp termination of the ELC under the internal border of the External Massifs is due to the non-transmission of organized seismic energy through the complex upper crust. This explanation is questioned as other reflections in this and similarly complex areas are recorded, and as the same sharp termination of the ELC under the internal border of the External Massifs is observed on all seismic lines for a length of 300 km. A tectonic — metamorphic cause appears to more satisfactorily explain the obeservations, and therefore an alternative model combining surface and deep geophysical data is proposed. It consists of three mutually largely decoupled tectonic levels. (1) The shallow obducted part or lid, bounded at its base by the combined Late Miocene Jura and Lombardic basal thrusts. Estimates of shortening based on balanced sections are at least about 100 km. (2) The intermediate level between the brittle-ductile transition and the top of the subducted mantle. It contains a stack of lower crust imbrications (with a minor admixture of upper mantle) accommodated by (inducted into) the ductile middle crust. Estimates of shortening based on area balancing are again of the order of slightly more than 100 km. (3) The subducted upper mantle, for which there are no reflection data.In the Central Alps the Late Miocene phase was dextrally transpressive, producing flower structures at the shallow level (External Massifs); the stacks of lower crust imbrications at the intermediate level may be the equivalent of the External Massifs at that level. Inverted flower structures of the subducted mantle are possible, but no detailed data are available.     

人工神经网络在白云岩类型识别中的应用

利用地球化学数据,运用人工神经网络方法对美国密苏里州东南Ｂｏｎｎｅｔｅｒｒｅ组（寒武纪）滨海相的白云岩进行了分类、识别,判别率达１００％,结果表明,该方法性能良好,可望成为岩石分类、判别的有效手段。     

The developmental characteristics and strategic ideas of urbanization in China

Since cities and towns are places where those nonagricultural industries are centralized, urbanization is greatly interrelated with industrialization and de-agriculturalization. By means of this kind of interrelationship, Chinese urbanization level may be estimated with the formulas: P1=I1/I0/u0, Pr = N1/N0/u0. The urbanization after the founding of the People's Republic of China can be divided into the following 5 stages: the stage at the out set of industrialization (1949-1957); the high-speed urbanization stage (1958-1960); the first counter-urbanization stage (1961-1965); the second counter-urbanization stage (1966-1976); and the high-speed urbanization stage (1978-now). The characteristics of Chinese urbanization are: the industrialization launched by the government; the simultaneous development of urbanization of cities and urbanization of rural areas; the quite low capability of urbanization to absorb nonagricultural labor force; the incoordinate development of cities, etc. Before establishing a     

Probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation in underground mines

Stress concentrations produced by rock deformation due to extraction in underground mines induce seismicity that can take the shape of violent and quite dangerous rockbursts.The hazard evaluation presented in this paper is based on a Bayesian probabilistic synthesis of information determined from mining situations during excavation, with previous and present data from microseismicity and seismoacustics.The method proposed in this study is an example of time-dependent on-line seismic hazard evaluation. All results presented were obtained retrospectiely for different underground coal mines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 01-452 Warszawa, ul. Ksiecia Janusza 64, Poland.     

基于网络药理学与分子对接技术探讨青蛇方外用治疗湿疹的作用机制

目的：基于网络药理学与分子对接技术探讨青蛇方外用治疗湿疹的作用机制。方法：应用TCMSP和UniProt数据库平台查询青蛇方组方的有效活性成分及靶基因,与疾病靶基因取交集后构建蛋白质-蛋白质相互作用(PPI)网络;应用DAVID数据库,对潜在核心作用靶点基因进行基因本体（GO）功能、京都基因与基因组百科全书（KEGG）通路富集分析。利用分子对接原理论证青蛇方生物活性成分与核心靶点的分子结合能力。结果：筛选出青蛇方有效成分63种,作用靶点99个;主要有β-谷甾醇、2,4,7-三羟基-9,10-二氢菲、靛蓝素、豆甾醇、色氨酸等关键成分;转录因子AP-1（JUN）、肿瘤坏死因子（TNF）、原癌基因（RELA）、干扰素γ（IFNG）、转化生长因子-β1（TGF-β1）等核心基因。关键信号通路有癌症信号通路、恰加斯病通路、弓形体病通路、脂质和动脉粥样硬化通路等,分子对接结果显示活性成分与核心靶点基因结合能力较强。结论：青蛇方外用可以通过多种活性成分、多种通路有效抑制免疫炎症反应,促进免疫系统正常运行,从而达到治疗湿疹的目的。     

南海海盆区莫霍面分布规律及其对深部钻探的意义

钻遇莫霍面是人类一直以来的梦想。深海海底是地球上离莫霍面最近的地方，目前有研究推测南海是世界上莫霍面深度最浅的海域之一，但缺乏足够的直接证据。深反射地震探测可以直接揭示岩石圈的构造形态，是莫霍面探测的重要手段。本文基于长达15000 km的深反射多道地震剖面的解释、处理、制图和分析，结合前人的研究，形成了南海海盆区莫霍面反射特征和空间分布的初步认识。① 南海东部次海盆南部早期经历了较快速扩张，岩浆供应充足，受扩张停止后岩浆活动影响较小，基底平坦，地质构造相对简单，同时洋壳地震速度结构不存在异常，且有较强的广角莫霍面反射波和可识别的地幔顶部折射波，具备莫霍面钻探的基本条件。② 南海海盆不同区域的莫霍面反射强度存在较大差异。其中东部次海盆莫霍面反射最为强烈且清晰，西北次海盆次之，西南次海盆仅有零星出现的清晰莫霍面反射且可信度不高。③ 识别南海海盆区莫霍面地震反射长度超过3500 km，首次形成了海盆区深度域莫霍面地震反射空间分布图。与重力反演的莫霍面深度相比，利用深反射多道地震计算的莫霍面深度细节更为丰富，并且可以在垂向上清晰刻画莫霍面的结构。整体上，南海海盆区莫霍面地震反射强烈和可信度高的区域中，深度较浅的区域之一是东部次海盆南部，最浅处仅约9. 5 km，其中水深4. 01 km，洋壳厚度仅5. 54 km。综合判断，东部次海盆南部是南海重要的莫霍面钻探备选区，这对南海莫霍面钻探选址具有重要意义。     

雄安新区地热地质模型探究：来自地球物理的证据

雄安新区内地热资源丰富，区内有牛驼镇地热田、容城地热田和高阳地热田，地热资源开发利用较早，但是对其深部热源机制仍未形成统一观点。为了研究雄安新区内地热田深部热源机制，在新区及外围进行了深反射地震和长周期大地电磁探测，对取得的同剖面的深反射地震和大地电磁数据进行处理和综合解释，探明了研究区从地表至莫霍面范围内地质构造和电性结构。下地壳结构在深反射地震剖面与大地电磁剖面上有很好的对应关系。电阻率低值区对应着在深反射地震剖面上存在一系列反射同相轴，且同相轴可以延续到莫霍面，电阻率高值区对应着在深反射地震剖面上无明显连续反射同相轴，尤其是在莫霍面之上呈现地震反射近似"空白区"。结合区域地热资料构建了研究区深部地热地质模型，对新区内深部地热机制进行了解释。该模型为"二元"生热模型，其热源包含两个部分，深部地幔热源和地壳放射性元素衰变生热。放射性元素衰变生热占地表热流的接近30%，而幔源热流在地表热流中的占比可达约70%。在牛驼镇下方，莫霍面以上，由于地幔热物质上涌造成下地壳上隆，幔源岩浆底侵作用于下地壳形成了局部热异常，该热异常具有低速高导的地球物理特征，认为是牛驼镇地热田和容城地热田的深部热源；以区域断裂为热通道，大地热流由深部向上传导、扩散到牛驼镇凸起和容城凸起顶部，对碳酸盐岩储水层进行加热，形成地热储层；上覆新近系沉积地层是良好的热盖层。     

A Step Towards Evaluation of the Seismic Response Reduction Factor in Multistorey Reinforced Concrete Frames

A seismic nonlinear time-history analysis was made for four-, six-, and eight-storey reinforced concrete buildings. These buildings were made as three-dimensional space frame structures with shear walls in both orthogonal directions. They have five bays with 4.8 m spacing each in the horizontal direction, and three bays with 4.2 m spacing each in the transversal direction. The frames were designed according to the Jordanian Seismic Code of practice for Seismic Zones 4, 3, 2, and 1 as proposed for Jordan by several authors. Time-history analysis was made using the El Centro (N-S) earthquake record of May 1940 as an actual earthquake excitation. The response reduction factor (R) that primarily consists of two factors that are the ductility reduction (Rµ) and the overstrength (), is obtained. It has been seen that the seismic zoning has a slight effect on the ductility reduction factor for different buildings, since it ranges from Zone 4 to Zone 1 as 2.37 to 2.52, 1.72 to 1.78, and 1.14 to 1.18 for four-, six-, and eight-storey buildings, respectively. Moreover, it is observed that, for different buildings and different seismic zones, the ductility reduction factor (Rµ) is slightly different from the system ductility factor (µ) especially for higher values of µ (i.e., Rµ µ). The response reduction factor, called overstrength (), was evaluated. The overstrength factor was found to vary with seismic zones (Z) , number of stories, and design gravity loads. However, the dependency on seismic zones was the strongest. The average overstrength of these buildings in Zones 4 and 1 was 2.61 and 6.94, respectively. The overstrength increased as the number of storeys decreased: overstrength of a four-storey building was higher than an eight-storey building by 36% in Zone 4, and 39% in Zone 1. Furthermore, buildings of the three heights had an average overstrength 165.9% higher in Zone 1 than in Zone 4. These observations have a significant implications for the seismic design codes which currently do not take into account the variation of the response reduction factor, R (i.e., ductility reduction factor times overstrength).     

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.