Interrelation among several important links in seismic risk analysis

Introduction In the probability analysis method of seismic risk considering time-space inhomogeneity of seismic activity and adopted commonly in China (State Seismological Bureau, 1996) (called in-homogeneous distribution model for short), the division of seismic statistical regions, delimitation of potential seismic sources and estimation of seismicity parameters are the main links that affect significantly the estimation of ground motion parameters of a site. HUANG and WU (2005) studied …     

2003年北黄海5.1级地震的地震活动特征

对2003年北黄海5．1级地震的地震活动背景、地震序列、震中周围中小地震活动图像及地震学参数等进行了详细分析。认为该次地震为前-主-余型，经历了一个活跃-平静-发震的过程；地震前震中附近出现了孕震空区和一些地震活动性参数异常。     

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???????λ????????????2004??1???2007??5??ML??1.5????????????ж?λ??????????2004??9??17?????????4.9????????????????????????????????????????ML??2.0?????????????б?????????????4.9???????????????????????????λ???????￡????????1?±?????????????????????????????????4.9?????????????????????     

鲁西南聊考断裂带地震危险性评价与活动性分布

利用1970年以来沿聊考断裂带及周边50 km范围内的地震数据,结合历史强震与现今地震活动背景,分别运用最大似然法和最小二乘法对研究区进行b值计算,圈出高应力累积区,并借助时间相依的地震潜势概率评估方法以及地震活动性分布,得出以下结论：1）南段的范县、清丰、濮阳以及鄄城地区的b值维持在0.6～07之间,属于高应力积累区;2）未来50 a内南段危险性较高,100 a内整条断裂发生M5.0～6.0地震的可能性较大;3）地震活动主要集中在115.2°～115.6°E、34.9°～36°N区域内,且自2000年后地震活动性变强。     

华北定点形变的小波分析与地震活动研究

利用小波分析方法对华北地区１９９０ 年到１９９８ 年的多台定点形变观测资料进行了分析计算,并将计算结果与该地区的地震活动进行了对比分析,同时讨论了不同阶的小波分解结果的物理意义及其与地震之间的对应关系。认为小波分解本质是窗口加权滑动平均,能有效地对各种不同频率成分的形变按不同的频段分离,为识别地震形变异常提供一种新的手段。在空间分布上,地形变的变化幅度与地震活动强度相对应,即在华北西北部地震活动性较强的包头、张家口一带,台站形变的强度明显高于华北东南部地震活动性较弱的泰安、营口等地区。在时间分布上,张北ＭＬ６ ．２ 级地震前大约两年东西方向的形变振幅随时间变化明显加大。     

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????????λ???????????(111??120??E??35??42??N)1993??2004??6 771?ε???1.0??M??6.6???????λ???????λ???????????????????????????????????????????????;???o?????·???????????????????????????б???????????????????????????????????20 km????60 km???????25 km??34 km?????40 km;83%???????????λ??0??15 km??Χ?????????????λ???????????????(7??21 km)????????????????????????????????????????????????;???92%???????????λ??1??24 km??????24 km??????????????????????硣     

Geographical and vertical variation of the earth's seismicity

Information concerning a total number of 13700 instrumentally recorded earthquakes is used to study the geographical and the vertical distribution of the Earth's seismicity. From these earthquakes, which form four complete samples of data (M 7.0, 1894–1992; M 6.5, 1930–1992; M 6.0, 1953–1992; M 5.5, 1966–1992), 11511 are shallow (h 60 km), 2085 are of intermediate focal depth (61 h 300 km) and 564 are deep focus earthquakes (301 h 720 km). The parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relationship were calculated in a grid of equally spaced points at 1° by using the data of earthquakes located inside circles centered at each point. The radius of the circles increased from 30 km with a step of 10 km until the information for the earthquakes located inside the circle fulfil three criteria which concern the size of the sample used to compute these parameters at each point of the grid. The results are given in a qualitative way (epicenter maps) as well as in a quantitative way (mean return periods).     

Comparison of two methods for seismic hazard assessment in a low-seismicity area

The EGO method, developed by Egozcue et al. and the SRAMSC method, originally developed by Cornell and later programmed by McGuire, to assess the seismic hazard, are compared for the low seismicity area Belgium, The Netherlands, and NW Germany. Using the same input data, the results of the EGO method without the majority criterion and the SRAMSC method with upper bound XII agree very well. The influence of the zoning is investigated for the EGO method. It is not necessary to define the zones for the EGO method so strictly as for the SRAMSC method, but too wide zones can give bad results.     

Deep structure of the northeastern Japan arc and its implications for crustal deformation and shallow seismic activity

Seismic tomography studies in the northeastern Japan arc have revealed the existence of an inclined sheet-like seismic low-velocity and high-attenuation zone in the mantle wedge at depths shallower than about 150 km. This sheet-like low-velocity, high-attenuation zone is oriented sub-parallel to the subducted slab, and is considered to correspond to the upwelling flow portion of the subduction-induced convection. The low-velocity, high-attenuation zone reaches the Moho immediately beneath the volcanic front (or the Ou Backbone Range) running through the middle of the arc nearly parallel to the trench axis, which suggests that the volcanic front is formed by this hot upwelling flow. Aqueous fluids supplied by the subducted slab are probably transported upward through this upwelling flow to reach shallow levels beneath the Backbone Range where they are expelled from solidified magma and migrate further upward. The existence of aqueous fluids may weaken the surrounding crustal rocks, resulting in local contractive deformation and uplift along the Backbone Range under the compressional stress field of the volcanic arc. A strain-rate distribution map generated from GPS data reveals a notable concentration of east–west contraction along the Backbone Range, consistent with this interpretation. Shallow inland earthquakes are also concentrated in the upper crust of this locally large contraction deformation zone. Based on these observations, a simple model is proposed to explain the deformation pattern of the crust and the characteristic shallow seismic activity beneath the northeastern Japan arc.