Comparison of two methods for seismic hazard assessment in a low-seismicity area

The EGO method, developed by Egozcue et al. and the SRAMSC method, originally developed by Cornell and later programmed by McGuire, to assess the seismic hazard, are compared for the low seismicity area Belgium, The Netherlands, and NW Germany. Using the same input data, the results of the EGO method without the majority criterion and the SRAMSC method with upper bound XII agree very well. The influence of the zoning is investigated for the EGO method. It is not necessary to define the zones for the EGO method so strictly as for the SRAMSC method, but too wide zones can give bad results.     

唐山老震区地震活动特征

整理校正唐山长时间地震序列数据,用基于时空ETAS模型的随机除丛法,分析1976年唐山长时间地震序列的活动特点,发现唐山老震区1992年后进入余震活动的晚期阶段,目前地震活动未完全恢复到背景地震的水平。用频度和应变能两种不同的异常指标分析唐山老震区作为“余震窗口”对中强震的指示意义,发现唐山余震窗口的早期阶段（1980-1986年）,频次作异常指标映震效果较好,晚期阶段（1992-2010年）,应变能作为异常指标映震效果更好。     

Full moment tensor inversion constrained by double-couple focal mechanism for induced seismicity*

In this study, we propose a new method to determine full moment tensor solution for induced seismicity. This method generalizes the full waveform matching algorithm we have developed to determine the double-couple (DC) focal mechanism based on the neighbourhood algorithm. One major difference between the new method and the former one is that we adopt a new misfit function to constrain the candidate moment tensor solutions with respect to a reference DC solution in addition to other misfit terms characterizing the waveform matching. Through synthetic tests using a real passive seismic survey geometry, the results show the new constraint can help better recover the DC components of inverted moment tensors. We further investigate how errors in the velocity model and source location affect the moment tensor solution. The synthetic test results indicate that the constrained inversion is robust in recovering both the DC and non-DC components. We also test the proposed method on several real induced events in an oil/gas field in Oman using the same observation system as synthetic tests. While it is found that the full moment tensor solutions without using the DC constraints have much larger non-DC components than solutions with the DC constraints, both solutions are able to fit the observed waveforms at similar levels. The synthetic and real test results suggest the proposed DC constrained inversion method can reliably retrieve full moment tensor solutions for the induced seismicity.     

Application of Markovian models for non-ergodic and non-stationary earthquake times series for the identification of seismic patterns and future projections*

The current earthquake forecast algorithms are not free of shortcomings due to inherent limitations. Especially, the requirement of stationarity in the evaluation of earthquake time series as a prerequisite, significantly limits the use of forecast algorithms to areas where stationary data is not available. Another shortcoming of forecast algorithms is the ergodicity assumption, which states that certain characteristics of seismicity are spatially invariant. In this study, a new earthquake forecast approach is introduced for the locations where stationary data are not available. For this purpose, the spatial activity rate density for each spatial unit is evaluated as a parameter of a Markov chain. The temporal pattern is identified by setting the states at certain spatial activity rate densities. By using the transition patterns between the states, 1- and 5-year forecasts were computed. The method is suggested as an alternative and complementary to the existing methods by proposing a solution to the issues of ergodicity and stationarity assumptions at the same time.     

On self-similarity of premonitory patterns in the regions of natural and induced seismicity

Anticipating the scale invariance of rock fracturing processes, we applied Keilis-Borok’s algorithm M8, originally designed for identifying times of increased probability (TIPS) of occurrence of strong earthquakes (M < 8.0), retrospectively to Koyna earthquakes which occurred in the region after the impoundment of the Shivaji Sagar reservoir in 1962. The algorithm which enables diagnosis of TIPS from the 7th year onwards after the commencement of the earliest available data set showed that the 5.3 magnitude earthquake of 20 September 1980 indeed occurred within a time of increased probability. This result, apart from its potential application to recognizing future TIPS in the region, points to selfsimilarity between the premonitory patterns of natural and induced earthquakes and to scale-invariant nature of their processes. Further, a typical precursory rise in seismicity followed by a relative quiescence was also found to precede all the three larger earthquakes of the sequence.     

Flexure of the Indian plate and intraplate earthquakes

The flexural bulge in central India resulting from India's collision with Tibet has a wavelength of approximately 670 km. It is manifest topographically and in the free-air gravity anomaly and the geoid. Calculations of the stress distribution within a flexed Indian plate reveal spatial variations throughout the depth of the plate and also a function of distance from the Himalaya. The wavelength (and therefore local gradient) of stress variation is a function of the effective elastic thickness of the plate, estimates of which have been proposed to lie in the range 40–120 km. The imposition of this stress field on the northward moving Indian plate appears fundamental to explaining the current distribution of intraplate earthquakes and their mechanisms. The current study highlights an outer trough south of the flexural bulge in central India where surface stresses are double the contiguous compressional stresses to the north and south. The Bhuj, Latur and Koyna earthquakes and numerous other recent reverse faulting events occurred in this compressional setting. The N/S spatial gradient of stress exceeds 2 bars/km near the flexural bulge. The overall flexural stress distribution provides a physical basis for earthquake hazard mapping and suggests that areas of central India where no historic earthquakes are recorded may yet be the locus of future damaging events.     

Deep structure of the northeastern Japan arc and its implications for crustal deformation and shallow seismic activity

Seismic tomography studies in the northeastern Japan arc have revealed the existence of an inclined sheet-like seismic low-velocity and high-attenuation zone in the mantle wedge at depths shallower than about 150 km. This sheet-like low-velocity, high-attenuation zone is oriented sub-parallel to the subducted slab, and is considered to correspond to the upwelling flow portion of the subduction-induced convection. The low-velocity, high-attenuation zone reaches the Moho immediately beneath the volcanic front (or the Ou Backbone Range) running through the middle of the arc nearly parallel to the trench axis, which suggests that the volcanic front is formed by this hot upwelling flow. Aqueous fluids supplied by the subducted slab are probably transported upward through this upwelling flow to reach shallow levels beneath the Backbone Range where they are expelled from solidified magma and migrate further upward. The existence of aqueous fluids may weaken the surrounding crustal rocks, resulting in local contractive deformation and uplift along the Backbone Range under the compressional stress field of the volcanic arc. A strain-rate distribution map generated from GPS data reveals a notable concentration of east–west contraction along the Backbone Range, consistent with this interpretation. Shallow inland earthquakes are also concentrated in the upper crust of this locally large contraction deformation zone. Based on these observations, a simple model is proposed to explain the deformation pattern of the crust and the characteristic shallow seismic activity beneath the northeastern Japan arc.     

Seismicity and fault aseismic deformation caused by fluid injection in decametric in-situ experiments

Seismicity induced by fluid perturbations became an important societal concern since felt earthquakes (M_w up to 6) occurred after anthropogenic activities. In order to mitigate the risks associated with undesired seismicity, as well as to be able to use the micro-seismicity as a probe for in-depth investigation of fluid-driven processes, it is of crucial importance to understand the links between seismicity, fluid pressure and flow. We have developed a series of in-situ, decameter-scale experiments of fault zone reactivation by controlled fluid injection, in order to improve the near-source geophysical and hydromechanical observations. The deployed geophysical monitoring close to the injection allows one to cover the full frequency range of the fault responses from the static deformation to the very high-frequency seismic emissions (up to 4 kHz). Here, we focus on the microseismicity (M_w ∼ –4 to –3) recorded during two fluid injection experiments in low-permeable shale and highly-fractured limestone formations. In both experiments, the spatio-temporal distribution of the seismic events, the energy balance, and the seismic velocity changes of the fractured medium show that most of the deformation does not actually emit seismic signals. The induced deformation is mainly aseismic. Based on these high-resolution multiparametric observations in the near-field, we therefore proposed a new model for injection-induced seismicity: the seismicity is not directly induced by the increasing fluid pressure, but it is rather triggered by the stress perturbations transferred from the aseismic motion caused by the injection.     

A Preliminary Study on the Soft–Sediment Deformation Structures in the Late Quaternary Lacustrine Sediments at Tashkorgan, Northeastern Pamir, China

This study identified soft–sediment deformation structures(SSDS) of seismic origin from lacustrine sediments in the late Quaternary paleo–dammed lake at Tashkorgan, northeastern Pamir. The observed deformation structures include sand dykes, liquefied diapir and convolute structures, gravity induced SSDS, and thixotropic pillar and tabular structures. We conducted a preliminary study on the morphology, formation and trigger mechanisms of pillar and tabular structures formed by liquefaction of underlying coarse sand and thixotropy of the upper silty clay. The regional tectonic setting and distribution of lacustrine strata indicate that the most probable trigger for the SSDS in lacustrine sediments was seismic activity, with an approximate earthquake magnitude of M6.0; the potential seismogenic fault is the southern part of the Kongur normal fault extensional system. AMS 14 C dating results indicate that the SSDS were formed by seismic events occurring between 26050±100 yr BP and 22710±80 yr BP, implying intense fault activity in this region during the late Pleistocene. This study provides new evidence for understanding tectonic activity and regional geodynamics in western China.