Rossby waves with linear topography in barotropic fluids

Rossby waves are the most important waves in the atmosphere and ocean, and are parts of a large-scale system in fluid. The theory and observation show that, they satisfy quasi-geostrophic and quasi-static equilibrium approximations. In this paper, solitary Rossby waves induced by linear topography in barotropic fluids with a shear flow are studied. In order to simplify the problem, the topography is taken as a linear function of latitude variable y, then employing a weakly nonlinear method and a perturbation method, a KdV （Korteweg-de Vries） equation describing evolution of the amplitude of solitary Rossby waves induced by linear topography is derived. The results show that the variation of linear topography can induce the solitary Rossby waves in barotropic fluids with a shear flow, and extend the classical geophysical theory of fluid dynamics.     

一类带有负顾客且具有反馈的M/G/1可修排队系统

研究了一类带有负顾客且具有反馈的M/G/1可修排队系统,正顾客服务完会以一定的概率立即排到队尾等待下一次服务,而以一定的补概率离开系统,永不再来。服务规则是先到先服务,负顾客抵消排队系统中的中间顾客（RCM）。使用“补充变量法”和状态转移方程分析该模型,得到了这一模型的排队指标和可靠性指标,并且发现此类排队系统完全取决于队长为2的概率。     

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Method for evaluating the degrees of land use sustainability of mountainous county and its application in Yunnan Province,China

The evaluation of sustainable land use is the key issue in the field of studying the sustainable land utilization. In general analysis, the sustainable land use is evaluated respectively from its ecological sustainability, economic sustainability and social sustainability in China and other countries in recent years. Although this evaluation is an important work, it seems insufficient and hard to comprehensively reflect the whole degree of land use sustainability. Thus, to make up this deficiency, this paper brings forward the evaluation indexes, which make it possible to quantitatively reflect the whole degree of land use sustainability, namely, the concept of ＂degrees of overall land use sustainability＂ （Dos）, and research and measurement development of the method of and calculation in Dos. Taking the evaluation of the degree of land use sustainability in county regions of Yunnan Province as the actual example for analysis, results are basically as follows：
1） The degree of land use sustainability （Dos） is the ration index to organically and systematically integrate the degree of ecological friendliness （DeF）, the degree of economic viability （Dev） and the degree of social acceptability （Dsa）, able to comprehensively reflect the whole sustainability degree of regional land use
2） Based on the value of Dos, the grading system and standard for the sustainability of land use may be established and totally divided into five grades, namely, the high-degree sustainability, middle-degree sustainability, low-degree sustainability, conditional sustainability and non-sustainability. Meanwhile, the standard for distinguishing sustainability grades has also been confirmed so as to determine the nature of sustainability degrees in different grades. This makes the possibility for the combination of nature determination with ration in research result and provides with the scientific guideline and decision-making gist for better implementation of sustainable land use strategy.
3） The pract     

金沙江下游多种面雨量集成预报方法的对比分析

集成方法有利于提高降水要素预报的准确性和可预报性。本文基于格点实况资料和智能网格预报、西南区域数值预报、ECMWF模式预报、GRAPES模式预报产品,以面雨量为研究对象,采用多元回归法、BP神经网络法、评分权重法、加权集成预报法和算术平均法,得到集成面雨量预报,再运用平均绝对误差、模糊评分、正确率、TS评分、偏差分析等方法,对2020年4—10月金沙江下游面雨量预报效果进行对比分析。结果表明：多元回归集成法和BP神经网络法的预报效果总体上优于其他几种集成方法。在考虑流域面雨量的预报量级时,下游可以采用预报量级较小的模式和集成方法。集成后偏差百分比均有降低,且多元回归法和BP神经网络法对预报量级较小的模式有矫正作用。在面雨量有无、小雨和中雨预报中,多元回归法集成效果较好,在大雨量级预报中,BP神经网络法集成效果较好。这些结论可为流域面雨量预报提供参考借鉴。     

复合加载条件下吸力式沉箱基础承载特性数值分析

吸力式沉箱基础的承载特性是海洋工程结构设施建造与设计中的一个关键问题。这种新型的深水海洋基础型式,通常承受竖向上拔荷载与水平荷载的共同作用,其工作性能与设计理论远远不能满足工程实践的需要。本文采用有限元分析方法对吸力式沉箱基础的极限承载特性进行数值计算。以大型通用有限元分析软件ABAQUS为平台,通过二次开发,数值实现了Swipe试验加载方法和固定位移比分析方法,针对不同的沉箱长径比、土的强度折减系数,探讨了沉箱基础在垂直上拔荷载和水平荷载单调联合作用下的极限承载力,通过对不同荷载组合的数值计算构造了复合加载条件下沉箱基础破坏包络面。     

江苏大丰潮滩潮流边界层特征研究

2003年7月中小潮期间使用MIDAS-400用户化数据采集系统在江苏大丰潮滩上进行了垂向多层位同步的流速和悬沙浓度观测。根据观测资料研究了潮流作用下的潮滩底部边界层过程,结果表明,观测地点的潮汐不对称现象十分明显,落潮流速、历时和输水输沙量皆明显大于涨潮;在潮周期内的多数时间里流速剖面符合对数分布,但在风力较强、水流快速增加和流速缓慢的情况下,流速剖面常偏离对数分布;悬沙颗粒垂向混合均匀,悬沙浓度剖面符合Rouse公式;落潮时的底部切应力和摩阻流速明显大于涨潮,摩阻流速与各水层流速通常有较好的线性关系;滩面糙度主要与沙纹形态和推移质运动强度有关,它与摩阻流速存在密切关系;悬沙浓度具有明显的减阻效应,受其影响,摩阻流速和底部切应力分别减小了28%~41%和40%~62%。     

基于遗传—神经网络方法的广西台风灾害评估模型研究

选取1981—2018年影响广西且灾情记录比较完整的86个台风样本,基于台风灾害伤亡人数、直接经济损失划分灾情等级,选取致灾因子,利用遗传算法与神经网络相结合的方法建立广西台风灾害评估模型.结果表明:选取的台风灾害致灾因子与台风灾情等级之间具有显著的相关性,构建的遗传—神经网络集合预报模型对台风灾情预估效果较好,训练样...     

长江口南支沉积物元素地球化学分区与环境指示意义

对采自长江口南支的130个表层底质沉积物样品采用X射线荧光光谱法进行了20种常、微量元素的地球化学分析。在此基础上,应用系统聚类法对该区域进行了元素地球化学分区。研究结果表明,研究区主要可以分为两大地球化学分区:Ⅰ区以相对富集SiO2,Sr,Zr元素为典型特征,主要涵盖5 m等深线以浅的长江三角洲前缘区;Ⅱ区以相对富集Al2O3,TFe2O3(全铁),MgO,Pb元素为典型特征,涵盖了前三角洲的广大区域。从地球化学分区的空间分布来分析,这两个分区元素之间的差异反映的是沉积水动力条件与沉积介质物化性质这两个环境要素空间分布的差异性,即在研究区内,表层沉积物元素地球化学空间分布的差异性实质上反映了沉积环境空间分布的差异性。     

荆江河段洪水水位预报方法研究

研制了荆江河段各站具体的洪水水位预报方案,并对预报方案进行了检验。研究表明:利用洪水预测的上下游相关法,建立荆江河段宜昌-枝城、枝城-沙市、沙市-城陵矶-石首、枝城-城陵矶-监利等水文预报站点的上下游相应水位关系曲线,能较好的预测荆江河段各预报站点洪水水位,并且通过对1969、1981、1983年3次洪峰过程试报的结果表明,该方案具有较好的适应性。