A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

The Gibraltar Arc seismogenic zone (part 2): Constraints on a shallow east dipping fault plane source for the 1755 Lisbon earthquake provided by tsunami modeling and seismic intensity

The Great Lisbon earthquake has the largest documented felt area of any shallow earthquake and an estimated magnitude of 8.5–9.0. The associated tsunami ravaged the coast of SW Portugal and the Gulf of Cadiz, with run-up heights reported to have reached 5–15 m. While several source regions offshore SW Portugal have been proposed (e.g.— Gorringe Bank, Marquis de Pombal fault), no single source appears to be able to account for the great seismic moment as well as all the historical tsunami amplitude and travel time observations. A shallow east dipping fault plane beneath the Gulf of Cadiz associated with active subduction beneath Gibraltar, represents a candidate source for the Lisbon earthquake of 1755.Here we consider the fault parameters implied by this hypothesis, with respect to total slip, seismic moment, and recurrence interval to test the viability of this source. The geometry of the seismogenic zone is obtained from deep crustal studies and can be represented by an east dipping fault plane with mean dimensions of 180 km (N–S) × 210 km (E–W). For 10 m of co-seismic slip an Mw 8.64 event results and for 20 m of slip an Mw 8.8 earthquake is generated. Thus, for convergence rates of about 1 cm/yr, an event of this magnitude could occur every 1000–2000 years. Available kinematic and sedimentological data are in general agreement with such a recurrence interval. Tsunami wave form modeling indicates a subduction source in the Gulf of Cadiz can partly satisfy the historical observations with respect to wave amplitudes and arrival times, though discrepancies remain for some stations. A macroseismic analysis is performed using site effect functions calculated from isoseismals observed during instrumentally recorded strong earthquakes in the region (M7.9 1969 and M6.8 1964). The resulting synthetic isoseismals for the 1755 event suggest a subduction source, possibly in combination with an additional source at the NW corner of the Gulf of Cadiz can satisfactorily explain the historically observed seismic intensities. Further studies are needed to sample the turbidites in the adjacent abyssal plains to better document the source region and more precisely calibrate the chronology of great earthquakes in this region.     

Les failles récentes des Grands-Moulins (Savoie) : un Sackung (tassement gravitaire) majeur dans les Alpes françaises

In Savoy, the Grands-Moulins recent fault scarps, previously interpreted as seismic fault ruptures, are in fact part of a major Sackung (deep seated gravitational spreading) of the French Alps (9 km long). We mapped more than 60 sackung scarps, some of them reaching 1330 m long and 30 m high. These antislope scarps stop the active screes and offset relict Dryassic rock glaciers by 16 m. We present geomorphologic observations attesting for their gravitational origin. This Sackung is primarily due to glacial debuttressing, while seismic shaking could be a triggering mechanism. To cite this article: J.-C. Hippolyte et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Site Effects Study in the Serravalle Village (NE Italy) by Means of Spectral Ratios Analyses Relatively to Multiple Reference Sites

The area of Serravalle, sited in the northern part of the town of Vittorio Veneto (TV), NE Italy, has been the target of a seismic microzonation campaign. 10 seismic stations have been deployed for a 7 months period to record in continuous mode. Three stations were installed on bedrock outcrops and seven on sedimentary sites with variable cover thickness. Spectral analyses have been performed on the collected data-set using the Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT, e.g. Andrews, 1986). In particular, spectral ratios have been calculated for each station relatively to the average of the three reference, bedrock sites. The spectral ratios provide quantitative estimates of the seismic motion amplifications which occur in each of the monitored sites. Two sites show high values of amplification, 5 times larger than signal amplitude at the reference sites, in correspondence of well discernible peak frequencies of 5 Hz. Results for the other stations show smaller amounts of site amplification spreading over a broad range of frequencies. Sites where the highest amplifications were recorded all lie on the left bank of the Meschio River and in areas farther away from its outlet into the plain correlating with the presence of thick layers of Quaternary deposits.     

Weathering characteristics of arctic islands in northern Norway

The arctic islands of the Lofoten-Vesterålen archipelago in northern Norway have a wide distribution of weathered land surfaces commonly located above 250 m with several apparent similarities. In order to investigate the characteristics of (deep) weathering in this region, northern Langøya and Hadseløya were chosen for in-depth analyses. Eight weathering profiles were excavated from various surfaces, and the stratigraphies were logged in detail. Material was collected throughout the weathering horizons, and all samples were subsequently analysed for clay mineralogy (< 63 μm fraction) and grain size distribution. The sampling strategy was complemented by samples from additional saprolites and other landforms such as moraines and rock glaciers. The XRD results indicate that the presence of secondary minerals, such as gibbsite (Al(OH)₃) and kaolinite (Al₂Si₂O₅(OH)₄), are very common throughout the profiles. Gibbsite is an extreme end product of silicate weathering and usually associated with a warmer and more humid climate, as found in Scandinavia during the Tertiary. The grain size analyses (< 63 μm) show that the finer silt fractions (< 8 μm) tend to be high in the profiles (20–40%), with significant amounts of clay (5–15%) demonstrating that the regolith itself is susceptible to frost sorting mechanisms.¹⁰Be exposure dates from in situ quartz knobs on tors and boulders of local origin suggest > 40,000 years of subaerial conditions. Considering the steady surface erosion, this figure should be viewed as an absolute minimum age estimate. Mapping of the superficial sediments and geomorphological features of the study areas has revealed several common morphological features, which indicate dominance of glacial and periglacial processes in the areas lying below the lower boundary of blockfields (c. 250 m). The weathering mantles are not a periglacial end product, but rather a relict tertiary landform that were modulated by permafrost processes as well as biological processes at later stages. The regolith cover constrain the vertical extension of warm-based Quaternary ice sheets challenging the notion of a parabolic ice mass consuming every mountain top of Lofoten and Vesterålen.     

The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.     

The Earthquake Readiness Scale: The Development of a Valid and Reliable Unifactorial Measure

Preparedness is a key dependent variable in many studies examining people’s response to disasters such as earthquakes. A feature of many studies on this issue, however, is the lack of attention given to psychometric issues when constructing measures of preparedness. With regard to earthquake preparation, for example, many studies could be greatly improved by the use of a valid and reliable measure of preparedness. This research developed such a measure that assessed both low-level preparedness, such as having an emergency kit, and high-level preparedness, such as altering home structures to mitigate damage. Studies of Wellington (New Zealand) residents using two samples totalling n=652 showed that 23 items measuring these different aspects of earthquake preparation could be combined into a reliable, valid, unifactorial scale. This brief scale should have utility in multivariate studies of earthquake preparation, either as a dependent variable, where preparation is the outcome variable of primary interest, or as one of several independent variables, where preparation and other measures predict another outcome variable.