Integrating economy, ecology and uncertainty in an oil-spill DSS: The Prestige accident in Spain, 2002

Major accidental oil spills still affect sensitive marine areas and shorelines around the world, constituting a challenge for operational as well as strategic contingency management. As a rationale basis for addressing both issues we here propose a Decision Support System (DSS) consisting of a combination of modelling and evaluation methods which in particular assesses various impacts on habitats and local economies. By integrating the state-of-the-art oil spill contingency simulation system OSCAR with wind and current forecasts, environmental GIS data and multi-criteria analysis techniques, the DSS is able to rank different response actions to a chemical or oil spill. In this study, the usefulness of the approach is tested by hindcasting the Prestige accident off the coast of Spain in 2002. In particular, the short- to mid-term economic and ecological consequences of different mitigation measures are estimated. We identified clearly one worst option matching the actual decision taken by the responsible parties and one or two almost equally well performing routes. Two procedures of including uncertainty at various stages of the DSS are tested. The first method averages ensembles of outcomes between each modelling/evaluation stage, while the second one preserves the entire degree of freedom till the final ranking procedure. Results in the Prestige case turned out to be rather insensitive against both ways to account for uncertainties. The robustness as well as clarity of the DSS has the potential to enhance the efficiency of decision making even in politically sensitive situations. Limitations as well as ongoing improvements of the system are highlighted, in particular emphasizing linkages to environmental economics.     

具有小时滞的线性系统次优控制的无滞后转换法

该文研究线性时滞定常系统的次优控制问题。根据无滞后转换法的思想 ,先引入状态向量的增量 ,将其视为附加扰动输入 ,再利用微分方程的逐次逼近法 ,将既含有时滞项又含有超前项的两点边值问题化为既不含时滞项又不含超前项的两点边值问题族。然后 ,把第 N次逼近得到的控制律近似为系统的最优控制律 ,得到次优控制律。并用实例仿真验证了该算法的有效性。该方法可使小时滞系统的迭代次数大大减少 ,因此尤其适合于小时滞系统的次优控制。     

时滞广义时变系统的渐近稳定与镇定

研究了时滞广义时变系统的渐近稳定和镇定问题。首先利用相关不等式,通过建立Lyapunov方程,给出了1个时滞广义时变系统无脉冲、渐近稳定性的充分条件。然后,基于这一工作,利用Riccati方程,进一步研究了时滞广义时变系统的镇定问题。最后,举例说明该结论的可行性。     

渤,黄海冬季强冷空气智能预报决策系统

冬季强冷空气造成的大风对海上船只影响较大，所以对于强冷空气影响的时间和强度的预报至为重要。本文借鉴了决策支持系统的研制方法，建立了渤、黄海冬季强冷空气智能预报决策系统。该系统拥有数据库及其管理系统、模型库及其管理系统、知识库和内部通讯系统；该系统采用了定量预报加定性分析的方法，把数学模型与预报员的经验有机地结合到一起。     

Quantitative estimation of petroleum prospect outcome probabilities: an overview of procedures

Estimation of prospect outcome probabilities in numerical form should be a central objective for petroleum geologists. Most numerical estimates of outcome probabilities represent subjective guesses. While the effectiveness of subjective procedures is difficult to gauge, several postmortem analyses suggest that subjective procedures are ineffective. Objective procedures for estimating outcome probabilities should yield much improved estimates. Objective procedures require that geological, geophysical and production data be organized so that geological and geophysical characteristics of prospects interpreted before they were drilled can be compared systematically with outcomes of prospects after they have been drilled. An example application that involves well data and an example application that involves seismic data demonstrate that objective procedures are simple in principle, but require organization of information in a form suitable for computation of frequencies, on which objective estimates of probabilities can be based.     

A Bayesian Network Approach for Offshore Risk Analysis Through Linguistic Variables

This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks(BNs).In this paper,linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurrence likelihood of hazardous events that may cause possible accidents in offshore operations.In order to use fuzzy information,an f-weighted valuation function is proposed to transform linguistic judgements into crisp probability distributions which can be easily put into a BN to model causal relationships among risk factors.The use of linguistic variables makes it easier for human experts to express their knowledge,and the transformation of linguistic judgements into crisp probabilities can significantly save the cost of computation,modifying and maintaining a BN model.The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships,including formally assessed expert opinion when quantitative data are lacking,or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made.The model is a modular representation of uncertain knowledge caused due to randomness,vagueness and ignorance.This makes the risk analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts.Specifically,the proposed f-weighted valuation function takes into account not only the dominating values,but also the α-level values that are ignored by conventional valuation methods.A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production,Storage and Off-loading(FPSO) unit and the authorised vessels due to human elements during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.     

Processing Multibeam Backscatter Data

A new highly precise source of data has recently become available using multibeam sonar systems in hydrography. Multibeam sonar systems can provide hydrographic quality depth data as well as high-resolution seafloor sonar images. We utilize the seafloor backscatter strength data of each beam from multibeam sonar and the automatic classification technology so that we can get the seafloor type identification maps. In this article, analyzing all kinds of error effects in backscatter strength, data are based on the relationship between backscatter strength and seafloor types. We emphasize particularly analyzing the influences of local bottom slope and near nadir reflection in backscatter strength data. We also give the correction algorithms and results of these two influent factors. After processing the raw backscatter strength data and correcting error effects, we can get processed backscatter strength data which reflect the features of seafloor types only. Applying the processed backscatter strength data and mosaicked seafloor sonar images, we engage in seafloor classification and geomorphy interpretation in future research.     

Study mobile underwater positioning system with expendable and multi-functional bathythermographs

The purpose of the current study is to introduce a set of mobile underwater positioning systems (MUPS) that will enable non-offshore vessels to execute underwater missions. Besides mobility, the system would also possess the advantage of having to use fewer acoustic instruments than conventional acoustic positioning systems. The method adopted by the system will involve the use of expendable and multi-functional bathythermographs (XBT) to measure the underwater acoustic speed and the depth of water at the same time. Then it must utilize the geometric relations formed by measuring the position of underwater targets at set intervals during navigation. In addition, since sound does not travel in a straight line when underwater, the iteration and convergence method must be used to perform corrections on the transmission speed and positional errors to obtain an accurate coordinate of the underwater target. After simulation testing, the positioning system established by the current study has proven to be fast in converging the error values along with high positioning accuracy of the system. The results of the study indicate that the MUPS built by the research institute can be utilized on a vessel, and will be very helpful in assisting the management of urgent underwater positioning missions.     

Degradation of rope properties under increasing monotonic load

This paper describes the development of a computational model to predict the response of synthetic-fiber ropes under both monotonic and cyclic loads. The model addresses the issue of damage to a rope cross-section and its effect on rope response. Isotropic damage is assumed and is therefore characterized by a scalar quantity known as the damage index. The damage index is used to quantify the amount of deterioration that takes place in a damaged rope throughout its loading history. For the current study, data obtained from static tension tests are used to determine the evolution relationship for the damage index. This relationship is based on the stiffness ratio between experimental data and simulation of rope response without any source of damage and is assumed to be described by an exponential equation. Numerical simulations of damaged rope behavior compare well with experimental results.