A modified exponential model for reported death toll during earthquakes

Reliable earthquake death toll estimate can provide valuable references for disaster relief headquarters and civil administration departments to make arrangement and deployment plan during post-earthquake relief work, thus increasing the efficiency of the relief work to a certain extent.In this study, we acquired the death toll data of Wenchuan earth-quake, fitted the data using modified exponential curve and compared the result with that of the exponential function.Experimental verification with Chi-Chi ea...     

变形:一个既沉重又轻松的话题——再议卡夫卡作品的“变形”主题

卡夫卡作品中的"变形"主题一直被认为是作者的人生悲观绝望情绪的体现,是消极、沉重的变形。其实,结合家庭伦理学、精神分析学和老庄哲学来分析,卡夫卡作品中的"变形"是矛盾统一的,它看似痛苦却已经超越痛苦,看似"异化"其实已经逃脱了异化,是一个既沉重又轻松的话题。     

石英粉尘激活TLR4信号通路诱导气道炎症反应的机制研究

为了探索大气颗粒物中石英粉尘诱导气道炎症反应的分子机制,采用XRD对石英粉尘进行了物相分析,并以支气管上皮细胞作为染毒对象,将石英粉尘作用于细胞24 h后,CCK-8检测细胞存活率,ELISA检测培养上清液中的白细胞介素-6(IL-6)和白细胞介素-8(IL-8)的浓度,Western Blot检测TLR4的表达,使用Toll样受体4特异性抑制剂TAK 242预处理后检测IL-6、IL-8、TLR4水平。实验结果显示,石英粉尘的主要物相是石英,并含部分方解石;随着石英粉尘染毒浓度的增加,细胞相对存活率下降;与对照组相比,100μg/mL组上清液中IL-6与IL-8浓度显著增加(P<0.01);50、75和100μg/mL组的高水平IL-6和IL-8可被TAK 242拮抗,使用TAK 242预处理后,100μg/mL组IL-6、IL-8浓度显著降低(P<0.01);TLR4的表达量随石英粉尘浓度增加而升高,且TAK 242的干预可以有效阻止TLR4通路的活化。研究结果表明,石英粉尘可以刺激支气管上皮细胞分泌高浓度的炎症因子,其机制可能是TLR4信号通路的活化。     

重庆市区县货流关联网络的时空格局及其影响因素——基于2012-2016年高速公路货车数据的分析

利用2012-2016年每年10月份高速公路货车流数据,动态展示了重庆区县货流网络的结构演化,并利用空间回归方法探讨了其影响因素.研究发现:①主城与万州是重庆市区县高速货流联系网络的核心部分.主城环带的地位最为突出,而以万州为中心,开州、云阳、梁平组成的“三角地带”的地位相对下降.②重庆区县货流关联网络的社团结构呈现主...     

Using fossil spring deposits in the Death Valley region,USA to evaluate palaeoflowpaths

Spring deposits reveal the timing and environment of past groundwater discharge. Herein, however, the potential for fossil spring deposits to infer water sources and palaeoflowpaths through trace elements and stable and radiogenic isotopes is examined. Past discharge (70 to 285 ka) in the Tecopa Basin in the Death Valley region of southeastern California is represented by tufa deposits, including mounds, pools, cemented ledges and rare calcite feeder veins. δ¹⁸O values indicate that spring discharge was a mixture of far‐travelled (regional) water with a significant, and perhaps dominant contribution of local recharge on a nearby range front and alluvial pediment, rather than simply representing an elevated regional water table. δ¹³C values indicate regional water had a high TDS, whereas solute data imply low overall solute contents, consistent with dilution by a large component of local recharge. Radiogenic isotope data (U‐series, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) for tufa indicate that siliciclastic rocks (a regional aquitard) interacted with discharging water. To access this aquitard, regional flow was probably partitioned into a permeable north–south damage zone of a north–south range‐bounding fault along the foot of the Resting Spring Range, which ultimately controlled the location of groundwater discharge. Existing models for modern discharge in the Tecopa Basin, by contrast, call upon westward interbasin flow in carbonate rocks from the Spring Mountains through the intervening (and nearly perpendicular) Nopah and Resting Spring Ranges. Understanding the controls on regional groundwater flow is critical in this and other arid regions where water is, by definition, a scarce resource. Thus, although it is a case study, this report highlights a fruitful approach to palaeohydrology that can be widely applied. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

阿勒泰地区死亡病例与气象要素关系初步分析

对阿勒泰地区急诊死亡人数与气象要素进行了逐步回归分析，结果表明逐月、逐季死亡人数与同期平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、平均气压、日照时数的相关关系较好。影响脑血管疾病逐月死亡人数的主要气象因子为气压，呈正相关，影响呼吸系统疾病逐月死亡人数的主要的气象因子为气温，呈负相关，所有回归方程都反映出冬季与气温呈负相关，气压呈正相关，夏季与气温呈正相关，气压呈负相关，即温度低、气压高的冬季和温度高、气压低的夏季死亡人数相对较多。     

Measuring alluvial fan sensitivity to past climate changes using a self‐similarity approach to grain‐size fining,Death Valley,California

The effects of climate change on eroding landscapes and the terrestrial sedimentary record are poorly understood. Using mountain catchment–alluvial fan systems as simple analogues for larger landscapes, a wide range of theoretical studies, numerical models and physical experiments have hypothesized that a change in precipitation rate could leave a characteristic signal in alluvial fan sediment flux, grain size and down‐system fining rate. However, this hypothesis remains largely untested in real landscapes. This study measures grain‐size fining rates from apex to toe on two alluvial fan systems in northern Death Valley, California, USA, which each have well‐exposed modern and ca 70 ka surfaces, and where the long‐term tectonic boundary conditions can be constrained. Between them, these surfaces capture a well‐constrained temporal gradient in climate. A grain‐size fining model is adapted, based on self‐similarity and selective deposition, for application to these alluvial fans. This model is then integrated with cosmogenic nuclide constraints on catchment erosion rates, and observed grain‐size fining data from two catchment‐fan systems, to estimate the change in sediment flux from canyon to alluvial fan that occurred between mid‐glacial and modern interglacial conditions. In a fan system with negligible sediment recycling, a ca 30% decrease in precipitation rate led to a 20% decrease in sediment flux and a clear increase in the down‐fan rate of fining, supporting existing landscape evolution models. Consequently, this study shows that small mountain catchments and their alluvial fan stratigraphy can be highly sensitive to orbital climate changes over <10⁵ year timescales. However, in the second fan system it is observed that this sensitivity is completely lost when sediment is remobilized and recycled over a time period longer than the duration of the climatic perturbation. These analyses offer a new approach to quantitatively reconstructing the effects of past climate changes on sedimentation, using simple grain‐size data measured in the field.     

基于双损失指标的地震灾度模型

将地震灾害等级划分为巨灾、大灾、中灾、小灾、微灾等5个等级,给出每个灾害等级的灾度下限D_i。选取地震灾害的死亡人数和直接经济损失相对值作为计算灾度的2个指标,采用“直接经济损失/年人均GDP”处理方法对直接经济损失进行无量纲化,为不同年代、不同地区的地震灾害灾度大小对比奠定基础。采用椭圆方程作为相邻灾害等级之间的分界线,给出相应参数以确定分界线方程表达式,在此基础上给出合理的地震灾度模型计算公式。利用假设值和中国部分实际地震灾例验证了本文给出的地震灾度模型的科学性、适用性和可比性,给出的地震灾害灾度计算模型可以推广到其他灾害。最后,比较唐山地震和汶川地震的计算灾度值,认为唐山地震的灾度大于汶川地震,并对这一结果的合理性进行了讨论。