新疆近50a来降水量时空变化及其突变分析

基于新疆53个气象台站1960—2005年逐月降水资料,通过Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检验方法,对新疆近50 a来年降水量和12个月降水量的趋势进行了分析,并计算12个月对年降水量的贡献率,同时通过SequentialMann-Kendall方法分析了27个台站年降水量显著增加趋势发生的时间突变点。结果表明,新疆近50 a来年降水量显著增加,北疆和南疆趋势最为明显;其中冬半年(1、2、11月和12月)这4个月的降水量增加趋势显著,对新疆年降水量的贡献较大;新疆大部分台站年降水量趋势发生突变的时间点在20世纪80年代以后。     

西南极菲尔德斯GPS形变网监测数据的误差特性分析与处理

本文对西南极菲尔德斯形变网ＧＰＳ监测数据的误差特性进行分析，利用数理统计原理检验了数据中的系统误差，提出了削弱这类系统误差的方法。该方法有３个特点：１．以监测网中两个稳定点为基准；２．对监测网数据进行尺度因子改正与坐标变换迭代计算；３．归算后监测网点位结构不变。经改化处理后的数据，基本上消除了系统误差的影响。     

土质边坡中部与顶部抗滑桩动力响应和边坡变形比较

地震作用及其诱发的变形或滑坡常会使抗滑桩受力发生显著变化,为此,研究了地震作用下不同加固位置的抗滑桩的动力响应和边坡变形情况.试验分析表明:中桩位边坡坡顶变形比高桩位边坡坡顶变形大,但中桩位边坡坡脚堆积变形比高桩位边坡坡脚变形较小;在同样条件下中桩位抗滑桩的静力、动力弯矩小于高桩位抗滑桩相应位置的弯矩;地震结束后由于坡体震动残余变形较大,抗滑桩最终承担着震后残余弯矩,但高桩位抗滑桩的承载能力在震后仍然发挥较大.研究结果表明:高桩位加固位置可以有效发挥抗滑桩的抗弯承载能力,但中桩位可以有效抑制坡底坡脚变形.     

基于EBA模型的中国碳排放稳健性影响因素研究

依据环境经济学理论,运用极值边界分析（the extreme bounds analysis, EBA）模型,拓展了Kaya恒等式,利用中国30个省际区域2001~2010年的面板数据,实证研究中国省际区域人均碳排放量“稳健性”的影响因素。结果表明,地方财政决算支出、产业结构、能源效率、能源消费结构、能源价格、客运量等6个因素对中国人均碳排放量具有抗干扰的“稳健性”显著影响,并根据实证结论提出了一些政策建议,如调整产业结构,控制高碳产业发展;优化能源消费结构,积极发展新能源和可再生能源;发展循环经济开发清洁技术,提高能源利用效率;提倡低碳生活,提倡低碳生活方式。这些建议为政府制定环境保护与经济发展政策提供经验证据和决策参考。     

中国东北地区及不同典型下垫面的气温异常变化分析

利用6个代表站1905-2001年较长时期的月平均气温,对缺测年代的数据进行了插补,建立了东北地区近百年平均季、年气温序列。对所建温度序列与同一区域内26个代表站平均温度序列的近46年同期资料做了相关分析,检验了序列的代表性。在所建序列基础上,分析了东北百年气温的年代、年和季节等不同时间尺度变化特点和地域分布特征,采用谱分析方法探讨了序列的周期性变化特征,并采用Mann-Kendall和Yamamoto方法对经过滑动平均的气温序列进行了突变分析。结果表明,东北近百年年平均温度表现为明显的增暖趋势,但为起伏式增暖;冬季增温非常强烈,夏季在1995年以前不仅没有升温,反而有明显降温趋势,但1995年以后夏季气温明显升高,春秋季的升温趋势与冬季类似,但幅度小得多;在区域内,增温强度似乎并不随纬度增大,纬度较低的沈阳增温最强;三种典型下垫面中以山地的增温幅度最强;功率谱分析表明了百年气温变化的2.3年和4.2年的主周期,其中2.3年周期比较显著。     

BIBLIOGRAPHIE

Abstract

Time series modelling approaches are useful tools for simulating and forecasting hydrological variables and their change through time. Although linear time series models are common in hydrology, the nonlinear time series model, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, has rarely been used in hydrology and water resources engineering. The GARCH model considers the conditional variance remaining in the residuals of the linear time series models, such as an ARMA or an ARIMA model. In the present study, the advantages of a GARCH model against a linear ARIMA model are investigated using three classes of the GARCH approach, namely Power GARCH, Threshold GARCH and Exponential GARCH models. A daily streamflow time series of the Matapedia River, Quebec, Canada, is selected for this study. It is shown that the ARIMA (13,1,4) model is adequate for modelling streamflow time series of Matapedia River, but the Engle test shows the existence of heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the ARIMA model. Therefore, an ARIMA (13,1,4)-GARCH (3,1) error model is fitted to the data. The residuals of this model are examined for the existence of heteroscedasticity. The Engle test indicates that the GARCH model has considerably reduced the heteroscedasticity of the residuals. However, the Exponential GARCH model seems to completely remove the heteroscedasticity from the residuals. The multi-criteria evaluation for model performance also proves that the Exponential GARCH model is the best model among ARIMA and GARCH models. Therefore, the application of a GARCH model is strongly suggested for hydrological time series modelling as the conditional variance of the residuals of the linear models can be removed and the efficiency of the model will be improved.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Modarres, R. and Ouarda, T.B.M.J., 2013. Modelling heteroscedasticty of streamflow times series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–11.     

乞盖淖湖湖床垂向渗透系数试验研究

地下水与湖水的转化必须要通过湖床沉积物,因此湖床渗透系数是评价湖水与地下水定量转化关系的基础。以内蒙古伊金霍洛旗乞盖淖湖为例,首先分析了湖床沉积物的颗粒组成,然后利用现场渗透试验方法进行了野外试验,计算了湖床的垂向渗透系数。湖床沉积物粒径分析结果表明,湖床沉积物以粉细沙为主。湖床垂向渗透系数计算结果表明,各测点的平均垂向渗透系数介于0．83～13．59cm／d,表明乞盖淖湖床垂向渗透性能在空间上具有非均质性。该研究为定量计算地下水与湖水的转化关系提供了基础参数。     

A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

绵阳市度日数特征及其变化趋势分析

从20世纪50年代以来,度日数一直作为气候变化与供暖关系的一个综合评价指标。基于全球变暖可能对我国供暖天数和温度产生深刻的影响,本文采用绵阳市1946~2005年共49年的日最低、最高气温资料,分析了绵阳市度日数年变化特征,并对其进行了趋势分析。结果表明:绵阳市历年供暖度日数最小值处于1998年,比1976年最大值低93.5%,10a年均供暖度日数变化趋势为二次曲线;制冷度日数波动性很大,1960~1979年在1500℃·d左右波动,1979~1990年在1400℃·d左右波动,1990年以后基本处于1500℃·d以上,10a年均制冷度日数拟合趋势曲线为三次曲线。基于Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验法,在α=0.05水平下,对绵阳市供暖和制冷度日数进行检验,研究发现:供暖度日数明显减少,1992年为突变起始年份;制冷度日数波动增长,且自1997年起突变。     

测试压裂分析技术在渤海B油田的应用

测试压裂分析技术是水力压裂施工前获取储层物性参数和分析压裂液性质的手段,是压裂施工顺利进行的技术保证。结合渤海某油田沙河街油藏压裂工程,介绍了测试压裂应用过程和理论基础,并简单介绍几种求取地层闭合压力的数学方法。闭合压力是压裂施工关键参数之一,不同数学计算方法推导出的闭合压力不尽相同,现场压裂工程师要根据实际测试结果选取可靠的数值。压降曲线拟合是在模型中反推出地层关键参数的方法,拟合完毕即得到针对施工地层的压裂模型,在此基础上进行主压裂设计和裂缝预测是较为准确的,以此进行施工也是安全的。