长江三角洲高新区可持续发展研究

长江三角洲是我国经济最发达、智力资源最密集的地区之一,高新区已经成为当地高新技术产业发展的主导力量。1990年以来,长江三角洲高新区凭借其良好的区位条件和政策的支持,软硬环境进一步优化,迅速集聚起各类要素资源,增长极作用明显,但也存在自主创新机制不完善,研究开发能力较弱,产品技术含量较低,国际竞争力不强等问题。本文从经济实力、经营绩效、科技创新能力、对外开放能力以及生态效率等5个方面选取29项指标,运用主成分分析法,对长江三角洲8个国家级高新区可持续发展能力进行评价。结果显示,上海张江高新区可持续发展能力最强,南京高新区和无锡高新区次之,杭州高新区和苏州高新区居中,宁波高新区和常州高新区较弱,泰州高新区最弱。并基于此提出了促进长江三角洲高新区可持续发展的对策措施。     

帕隆藏布流域然乌-培龙段冰湖溃决危险性评估

西藏帕隆藏布流域内发育了我国境内最大的海洋性冰川群,冰湖星罗棋布,是遭受冰湖溃决危害的典型区域。以帕隆藏布流域然乌-培龙段的冰湖为研究对象,在分析其环境背景的原则上,通过遥感解译,分析研究区冰湖的分布现状;在基于指标容易获取的基础上,从冰川特征、冰湖特征和下游沟道特征3个类别选取了8个冰湖溃决危险性评估指标,并利用模糊物元可拓性理论对研究区的冰湖溃决危险性进行综合评估。通过评估,研究区130个冰湖中,高度危险的有18个,占总数的13.85%;中度危险的有36个,占总数的27.69%;低度危险的有76个,占总数的58.46%;高度危险的冰湖主要集中分布在然乌-松宗区段内。     

澜沧江流域农业灌溉需水的时空变化(英文)

Based on the data of eight meteorological stations from the 1950s to 2007, current cropping patterns, field water moisture management, we use the Mann-Kendall and the Re-scaled Range Analysis methods to research the changes of humidity and crop irrigation water requirements in the Lancang River Basin. The results show that the annual and dry season average temperatures significantly increased, and the dry season rainfall increased while wet season rainfall decreased. Evaportranspiration (ET0) increased during both dry and wet seasons at all stations except Dali, Jianchuan and Gengma, and the aridity-humidity index decreased at most of the stations. The turning points of weather factors, ET0, the arid-ity-humidity index, paddy irrigation requirements and total agricultural water requirements occurred from the 1960s to the 1990s. The spatial changing tendency of paddy irrigation quota increased with the increase of altitude and latitude, and the correlation coefficients are 0.513 and 0.610, respectively. The maximum value is observed in Weixi, while the minimum in Mengla.     

基于方志资料重建1644-1949年长江三角洲地区台风频次序列(英文)

The proxy records on typhoons in the Yangtze River Delta from 1644 to 1949AD were extracted from historical chorographies in the Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China Period.In reference to the basic principles for identifying historical typhoons,time series on the Yangtze River Delta over a period of 306 years were developed.The conclusions are as follows.(1) There were a total of 241 typhoons from 1644 to 1949AD.Using the historical chorographies from 1884 to 1949AD,the number of typhoons was 65,equal to 87.8% recorded by meteorological observation.The number of years with differences in typhoon activities reconstructed using two ways no more than once is 55,reaching 83.3% in the period from 1884 to 1949AD.This result means the series of historical typhoons reconstructed using historical chorographies can represent the change of typhoon activities over years.(2) The average number of typhoon activities is 0.79 times per year from 1644 to 1949AD,and they show an increasing trend.These 306 years can be divided into three periods by the average number of typhoon activities:it is low from 1644 to 1784AD,and more typhoon activities are found from 1785 to 1904AD.It is worth noting that the number of typhoon activities reaches the summit in the last period,which is 1.2 times per year from 1905 to 1949AD.(3) Before the 20th century,the number of typhoon activities in warm periods is less than the number of cold periods.However,the number of typhoon activities increased dramatically in the early 20th century.Comparing the typhoon activities with El Ni o events,the data show that the number of typhoon activities did not increase when El Ni o occurred.     

近半个世纪来气候变暖背景下黄河流域潜在蒸散量的变化(英文)

According to the meteorological observation data of 72 stations from 1960 to 2010 in the Huanghe (Yellow) River Watershed, China, the long-term variations of potential evapotranspiration, calculated in the modified Penman-Monteith model of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, were presented, as well as the meteorological causes for the decrease of potential evapotranspiration were discussed. Since 1960, temperature has risen significantly and potential evapotranspiration a decreasing trend, which indicated the existence of "Evaporation paradox" in the Huanghe River Watershed. This phenomenon was not consistent spatially or temporally with the increase of temperature, potential evapotranspiration decreased in spring, summer and winter, mainly over most parts of Shanxi and Henan, and some parts of Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi. During the recent half century, the trends of temperature and potential evapotranspiration were negatively correlated at most of the stations, while precipitation and potential evapotranspiration exhibited a contrary trend. Calculated in multiple regressions, the contribution to potential evapotranspiration change of related meteorological factors was discussed, including mean pressure, maximum and minimum temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity and average wind speed. The decrease of wind speed in the Huanghe River Watershed may be the dominating factor causing potential evapotranspiration decreasing.     

近50年来淮河流域极端降水的时空变化及统计特征(英文)

Based on the daily precipitation data of 27 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2009 in the Huaihe River Basin, spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in this area are analyzed. Annual maximum series (AM) and peak over threshold series (POT) are selected to simulate the probability distribution of extreme precipitation. The results show that positive trend of annual maximum precipitation is detected at most of used stations, only a small number of stations are found to depict a negative trend during the past five decades, and none of the positive or negative trend is significant. The maximum precipitation event almost occurred in the flooding period during the 1960s and 1970s. By the L-moments method, the parameters of three extreme distributions, i.e., Generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), Generalized Pareto distribution (GP) and Gamma distribution are estimated. From the results of goodness of fit test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, AM series can be better fitted by GEV model and POT series can be better fitted by GP model. By the comparison of the precipitation amounts under different return levels, it can be found that the values obtained from POT series are a little larger than the values from AM series, and they can better simulate the observed values in the Huaihe River Basin.     

黄河三角洲湿地柽柳林生长动态密度结构的响应特征

为了阐明滨海湿地不同密度柽柳(Tamarix chinensis)林的生长动态,探索滨海湿地柽柳林的密度合理性,在黄河三角洲莱州湾南岸的山东昌邑海洋生态特别保护区内,利用标准木树干解析法,对10a生的3种密度(2400株/hm2、3 600株/hm2和4400株/hm2)的柽柳林地上生物量、林木生长动态和基径分布特征进行研究.结果表明,3种密度林分的地上生物量、树高生长量和林木基径生长过程差别较大.随着林分密度增大,林木单株生物量和基径减小,但单位面积林分生物量增加;树高、基径的速生期都出现滞后现象.3种密度林分基径分布的偏度系数(SK)差别较大;密度为3 600株/hm2林分的SK值为0.085,接近正态分布,林分密度结构和基径分布较为合理;密度为2 400株/hm2和4 400株/hm2林分的SK值分别为-0.842和0.303,偏离正态分布,林分密度结构不合理.密度为2 400株/hm2林分的峰度系数(K)为0.017,林木生长相对整齐;密度为3 600株/hm2和4 400株/hm2林分的K值相差不大;密度因素对林木分化作用较小.若不考虑10a间的林木间伐利用,该区柽柳人工造林合理的初植密度建议为3 600株/hm2(株行距约2.0 m×2.0 m).     

辽河三角洲湿地生态服务功能价值评估研究

采用国际通用的市场价值法、成本法、影子工程法和替代法,对辽河三角洲湿地服务功能价值进行评估研究,诠释了保护湿地资源的重大意义。     

CHANGES OF RIVER BED PATTERN OF A LOWLAND RIVER: EFFECT OF NATURAL PROCESSES OR ANTHROPOGENIC INTERVENTION?

GPR and aerial surveys were conducted to study changes of channel pattern in the lower course of the Obra River (western Poland). The river is an example of an intensive anthropogenic transformation, however, the origin of the river pattern changes in its lower course is not obvious. The GPR measurements were done using a georadar MALÅ ProEx equipped with a shielded 250 MHz antenna. A 3D analysis of the GPR data supported with lithologic information indicated traces of a multi‐channel pattern. A variable orientation of sediment layering within channel bars and differences in channels depth and width pointed to changes of direction of the river bed migration. Analysis of aerial photographs and a satellite image indicated that only a few of the channels inferred from GPR could be discerned. The reason could be the more than 1 m thick fine sands layer covering all the alluvial structures. Analysis of historical maps from the eighteenth and the nineteenth centuries showed that 250 years ago the Obra was a meandering river. The maps illustrate also several meander cutoffs and decreased wetlands surface. The following transformations of the river bed pattern were discerned: 1. From braided to meandering channel pattern which could be a natural process caused by climatic and sediment transport rate changes that was also observed in case of other lowland rivers. 2. From meandering to sinuous pattern with channel islands and then to sinuous with oxbow lakes. However, further research is needed to study reasons and timing of the observed changes.     

基于小波分析的汾河河津站径流与输沙的多时间尺度特征

基于汾河流域19个气象台站1959~2005年的月均降水量、河津站的径流量和输沙量资料,借助小波分析方法研究了降水、径流与输沙序列的多时间尺度特征及它们的耦合关系。结果表明:降水、径流与输沙量具有2~4a、14~18 a左右2个不同尺度的周期变化,且三者的主周期基本一致,即3 a和16 a;3 a尺度上,3个要素曲线的正、负位相交替频繁,突变点较多,且曲线变化除个别时段发生紊乱外基本上保持同步性;16 a尺度上,突变点较少,3条曲线的正、负位相交替相应减少且出现不同步现象。降水、径流与输沙量曲线发生趋势变化及出现不同步现象的原因包括自然因素和人类活动,而后者是其主要影响因素。