Verhulst滑坡预测预报模型的改进及其应用

Verhulst生物生长模型是一种统计型的滑坡预测预报模型,针对原始Verhulst模型中把第一个数据点作为已知条件的理论依据不存在,可能导致预报精度较低问题,将前人改进Verhulst模型的方法应用到滑坡预测预报中,推导出用改进模型和速度最大值判据预报滑坡发生时间的计算公式。通过分析表明,原始Verhulst模型中以速度最大值作为预报滑坡发生时间的判据缺乏合理性,以加速度和加加速度最大值作为预报判据应更合理,并推导出用加速度和加加速度最大值判据预报的计算公式。基于推导的公式,编写Matlab程序进行计算,将原始和改进的Verhulst模型以及3种判据应用于一些滑坡实例的预报中。结果表明,（1）与原始Verhulst模型相比,改进模型的预报效果较好,其预报滑坡发生的时间更早,且更准确;（2）与速度最大值判据相比,加速度和加加速度最大值判据的预报效果较好,其预报时间较早,且较准确;（3）可把原始模型中单一的时间预报值拓展为一段预报的时间范围,该预报时间范围的上限是加速度最大值时刻,下限是加加速度最大值时刻;（4）用改进模型和该时间段范围判据进行预报能起到提前预报的作用,且预报结果较准确。此外,经讨论认为临近破坏时,裂缝的增多以及动摩擦系数小于静摩擦系数导致抗滑力降低,剩余下滑力增大,是使滑体产生加速度逐渐增大运动的原因。     

Flow competence: A criticism of a classic concept

The largest grains found in samples of transported sediment are commonly used to estimate flow competence. With samples from a range of flows, a relationship between the flow and the largest mobile grain can be derived and used to estimate the critical shear stress for incipient motion of the different grain sizes in the bed sediment or, inversely, to estimate the magnitude of the flow from the largest grain found in a transport sample. Because these estimates are based on an extreme value of the transport grain-size distribution, however, they are subject to large errors and are sensitive to the effect of sample size, which tends to vary widely in sediment transport samples from natural flows. Furthermore, estimates of the critical shear stress based on the largest sampled moving grain cannot be scaled in a manner that permits reasonable comparison between fractions. The degree to which sample size and scaling problems make largest-grain estimates of fractional critical shear stress deviate from a true relationship cannot be predicted exactly, although the direction of such a deviation can be demonstrated. The large errors and unknown bias suggest that the largest sampled mobile grain is not a reliable predictor of either critical shear stress or flow magnitude. It is possible to define a single flow competence for the entire mixture, based on a central value of the transport grain-size distribution. Such a measure is relatively stable, does not require between-fraction scaling, and appears to be well supported by observation.     

抗震设计中多遇地震的问题和讨论

指出作为截面抗震验算标准的“小震”混淆了两种明显不同的概念:其一是对应于50年超越概率63％的地震动参数(以下简称“多遇小震”);其二是50年超越概率10％的地震动参数经过折算得到的参数(以下简称“折算小震”).上述混淆导致抗震设计中实际上执行着不同的标准.文中讨论了中、小地震动参数之间关系的复杂性,包括从地震危险性分...     

iShocks: X-ray binary jets with an internal shocks model

In the following paper, we present an internal shocks model, iShocks, for simulating a variety of relativistic jet scenarios; these scenarios can range from a single ejection event to an almost continuous jet, and are highly user configurable. Although the primary focus in the following paper is black hole X-ray binary jets, the model is scale and source independent and could be used for supermassive black holes in active galactic nuclei or other flows such as jets from neutron stars. Discrete packets of plasma (or 'shells') are used to simulate the jet volume. A two-shell collision gives rise to an internal shock, which acts as an electron re-energization mechanism. Using a pseudo-random distribution of the shell properties, the results show how for the first time it is possible to reproduce a flat/inverted spectrum (associated with compact radio jets) in a conical jet whilst taking the adiabatic energy losses into account. Previous models have shown that electron re-acceleration is essential in order to obtain a flat spectrum from an adiabatic conical jet: multiple internal shocks prove to be efficient in providing this re-energization. We also show how the high-frequency turnover/break in the spectrum is correlated with the jet power,  ν _b ∝ L ^∼0.6_W  , and the flat-spectrum synchrotron flux is correlated with the total jet power,   F _ν∝ L ^∼1.4_W  . Both the correlations are in agreement with previous analytical predictions.     

基于岩石力学特性和机械比能理论的钻头评价和优选

针对川西某构造的地质构造和地层特征,本文以井史资料和测井数据为基础,建立了地层强度参数和岩石力学参数剖面,得出了分布规律,即岩石强度和可钻性级值普遍较高,且变化趋势同弹性模量、粘聚力、内摩擦角等力学参数一致,在2500～2700 m地层达到峰值,而泊松比则相反,达到最低值。提出了基于岩石力学特性和机械比能理论的钻头评价和优选方法,得出了每段地层钻头的机械比能值,对已使用钻头的使用效果进行系统评价,发现采用的PDC钻头效果不理想,形成了牙轮钻头、孕镶钻头为主的钻头推荐方案,为工区钻井提速设计提供指导。     

沈阳地区农作物生长季热量资源变化特征

利用1958-2009年沈阳地区7个气象站逐日平均气温资料,采用常规统计方法分析了农作物生长季界限温度的热量资源变化趋势。以此为地方在气候变暖的环境下,调解农业种植结构,掌握因升温所带来的利弊关系,促进农业经济稳步发展。结果表明：沈阳地区农作物生长季各界限温度普遍存在始日提前、终日推后,持续时间延长,积温明显增多的变化趋势。≥0℃持续日数趋势延长11 d,活动积温趋势增加340 ℃?d;≥5℃持续日数趋势延长13 d,积温趋势增加359℃?d;≥10℃持续日数趋势延长12 d,积温趋势增加305 ℃?d;≥20 ℃持续日数趋势延长8 d,积温趋势增加326 ℃?d。初（终）日的地域分布特点为城市早（晚）于乡村、南部早（晚）于北部;不同界限温度下的积温变化特征为城市多于乡村、南部多于北部。     

Seismic analysis of laterally loaded pile under influence of vertical loading using finite element method

An efficient analytical approach using the finite element (FE) method, is proposed to calculate the bending moment and deflection response of a single pile under the combined influence of lateral and axial compressive loading during an earthquake, in both saturated and dry homogenous soil, and in a typical layered soil. Applying a pseudo-static method, seismic loads are calculated using the maximum horizontal acceleration (MHA) obtained from a seismic ground response analysis and a lateral load coefficient (a) for both liquefying and non-liquefying soils. It is observed that for a pile having l/d ratio 40 and embedded in dry dense sand, the normalized moment and displacement increase when the input motion becomes more severe, as expected. Further increasing of a from 0.1 to 0.3 leads to increase in the normalized moment and displacement from 0.033 to 0.042, and 0.009 to 0.035, respectively. The validity of the proposed FE based solution for estimating seismic response of pile is also assessed through dynamic centrifuge test results.     

G7公路甘肃段爆破施工对土遗址震动影响的检测与分析

近年来土遗址受城市建设和交通施工损害的现象时有发生,对于这些人为因素对遗址的影响缺乏有效的检测与评估手段。本文基于G7高速公路的爆破振动观测,进行质点峰值加速度和峰值速度的衰减分析,开展爆破震动对附近明水军事要塞土遗址震动影响的研究。通过对竖向、水平向的振动加速度和速度的观测和数据分析,得出不同药量条件下,对应相同质点的震动峰值加速度衰减规律。提出了公路爆破附近土遗址震动控制范围和最大药量的施工建议,为爆破附近有土遗址的施工提供了数据支持,相应的结论和建议可以在同类土遗址保护中参考使用。     

2012年7月20日江苏宝应M4.9地震加速度场的计算

运用 ShakeMap 中的计算方法,计算2012年7月20日江苏宝应 M 4．9地震的加速度场,结果发现,水平向峰值加速度的分布与真实的烈度分布基本一致,说明利用江苏省强震动台网43个固定台站的观测资料,可为快速评定此次地震的烈度提供科学、准确的参考信息。     

基于GRACE的格陵兰冰盖质量变化分析

基于GRACE RL05数据反演2003-01~2012-12格陵兰岛的冰盖质量变化,构建去相关滤波和高斯滤波的组合滤波方式,采用线性及二次多项式拟合分析格陵兰岛冰盖质量变化速度及加速度。结果表明,格陵兰岛冰盖呈现加速融化趋势,冰盖融化主要在南部及西北地区。扣除泄漏误差及冰川均衡调整改正,冰盖质量融化速度及加速度分别为-157.8±11.3 Gt/a,-17.7±4.5 Gt/a2,其融化速度在2010年后明显加快,由2003~2009年的-132.2 Gt/a增加到2010~2012年的-252.5 Gt/a。东北部冰盖趋于稳定。中东部地区冰盖质量变化加速度呈现正增长,显示该地区冰盖融化逐年减缓,但2010年后加速融化。