Reducing geological uncertainty by conditioning on boreholes: the coupled Markov chain approach

The CMC (coupled Markov chain) model, which is based on the extension of Markov chains in two-dimensions, is used in the reduction of uncertainty in geological structures when conditioned (i.e., honours the data and their location) on a number of boreholes. The model has been applied to an unconsolidated aquifer deposit located in the central Rhine-Meuse delta (the Gorkum study area) in the Netherlands. A comparison is also made between the CMC and the SIS (sequential indicator simulation) model, which is based on Kriging and co-Kriging theories on the same deposit. The results show the potential applicability of the CMC model in reducing the uncertainty in geological configurations when a sufficient number of boreholes is available. Reproduction of the global geological features requires relatively few boreholes (in this case study, nine boreholes with 30-m spacing over a distance of 240 m). However, reproduction of the proportion of each state requires a relatively large number of boreholes (in this case study 31 boreholes with 8-m spacing over a distance of 240 m). It has been shown that variograms can be deceptive in modeling the spatial pattern and that they reflect only part of the complete spatial structure in the field. The use of transition probabilities via the CMC model provides a better alternative approach, because it uses multiple point information. Amro M. M. Elfeki on leave from Department of Irrigation and Hydraulics, Faculty of Engineering, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt     

陆面过程对气候影响的数值模拟:SSiB与IAP/LASG L9R15 AGCM耦合及其模式性能

利用陆面过程模式 SSi B与 IAP/LASG发展的 L9R1 5AGCM的耦合 1 0 a积分试验 ,研究了全球尺度大气与地表的水分和能量交换以及陆地与大气环流和气候的相互作用。模拟表明 :SSi B模式可模拟出陆地上较为真实的表面通量及其日变化 ,较好地定量描述土壤 -植被 -大气连续体系 ( SPAC)中能量和水分的传输过程。因此 ,将其引入气候模式中能够模拟出比 CTL- AGCM更合理的气候平均状态、水汽分布以及水汽输送的气候特征 ,特别是亚洲夏季风水汽输送独特的地域性 ,再现了大气环流 ,尤其是陆面气候的基本特征。并指出 ,陆面过程参数化的引进及其陆面状况的变化显著地改善了全球陆地上的水分平衡状况。利用改进的再循环降水模式 ,进一步研究了陆面过程参数化明显改进降水模拟的物理机制。指出全球陆地 ,特别是盛夏北半球干旱、半干旱地区的再循环降水率明显减小 ,与陆面上表面潜热通量的显著减小区一致 ,从而克服了许多未耦合陆面过程的 AGCMs因对地表水过程非常简单地参数化导致的普遍存在着整个陆地降水偏高 ,改善了全球陆地上的水分平衡状况。因此 ,在充分耦合的陆气环流模式中模拟的降水分布与实况接近。     

A coupled physical-biological-chemical model for the Indian Ocean

A coupled physical-biological-chemical model has been developed at C-MMACS. for studying the time-variation of primary productivity and air-sea carbon-dioxide exchange in the Indian Ocean. The physical model is based on the Modular Ocean Model, Version 2 (MOM2) and the biological model describes the nonlinear dynamics of a 7-component marine ecosystem. The chemical model includes dynamical equation for the evolution of dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity. The interaction between the biological and chemical model is through the Redfield ratio. The partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO₂) of the surface layer is obtained from the chemical equilibrium equations of Penget al 1987. Transfer coefficients for air-sea exchange of CO₂ are computed dynamically based on the wind speeds. The coupled model reproduces the high productivity observed in the Arabian Sea off the Somali and Omani coasts during the Southwest (SW) monsoon. The entire Arabian Sea is an outgassing region for CO₂ in spite of high productivity with transfer rates as high as 80 m-mol C/m² /day during SW monsoon near the Somali Coast on account of strong winds.     

赣江流域TRMM遥感降水对地面站点观测的可替代性

多卫星遥感降水产品为无/缺资料地区的水文过程模拟提供了新的数据来源。结合地面高密度雨量站网,在中国典型暴雨区赣江流域定量评估两种TRMM降水产品(3B42V7和3B42RTV7)的精度,并通过耦合分布式水文模型CREST,探讨了水文模拟中TRMM卫星降水产品对地面观测降水的可替代性。研究表明:3B42和3B42RT与地面观测流域平均月降水相关系数达到0.9以上,偏差在5%以内,日尺度上相关性略差,偏差略有增加。同时设计2种水文模拟对比试验:情景I为静态参数,使用地面雨量站降水率定模型参数,采用卫星降雨验证模型;情景II为动态参数,采用卫星数据重新率定模型参数,再利用卫星降雨验证模型。对比结果表明:情景II中完全使用TRMM降水后模型效果明显改善,证明TRMM卫星数据在赣江流域具有替代地面站点观测的潜力,但需要重新根据卫星降雨率定模型。     

海温及海浪对台风眼墙中尺度涡的影响

本文利用包括海气耦合、气浪耦合及浪流耦合的完全耦合系统,着重研究了2006年“格美”(Kaemi)台风眼墙内的中尺度涡结构。中尺度涡作为影响台风眼墙非对称结构的内部因子,与风垂直切变密切相关,其发展过程受台风下垫面海洋状况的影响。在顺切变右侧,垂直气流逐渐增强,在顺切变左侧达到最大后逐渐减弱。当不考虑海表温度的冷涌反馈作用时,海气间的热通量输送较大,由此引起眼墙内的中尺度对流加强,但集中爆发区仍然位于顺切变方向,不受热通量输送变化的影响。当不考虑海浪对海表粗糙度的影响时,在较小的海表粗糙度条件下,眼墙非对称性减弱,使得中尺度对流涡在切向方向上的分布较为均匀。     

A nonlinear HHT-α method with elastic–plastic soil–structure interaction in a coupled SBFEM/FEM approach

This article presents a new method for the calculation of elastic–plastic building ground deformations and elastic–plastic building ground failure including wave propagation in the ground. The presented procedure is a hybrid method, based on several common calculation methods. Included is a nonlinear calculation with the finite element method (FEM), a nonlinear HHT-alpha method with full Newton–Raphson iteration and the scaled boundary finite element method (SBFEM). The presented method can be used as a tool for the accurate calculation of building ground deformations and the stability of the subsoil with included dynamic loading.     

海洋科学和技术协同发展的回顾

简单回顾百余年来现代海洋科学的发展历程,并用一系列的实例,如深海取样和深海钻探,遥测遥感和水下观测,锚碇长期连续测量和智能水下活动平台,深潜技术和海底观测网等,说明科学的想像能促进技术的创新,而工具的重大改进能导致科学理解的跃进.文章的目的是向我国学术界和管理部门说明:科学和技术必须协同、而不是分头发展,只有两者的结合...     

A coupled-mode model for water wave scattering by horizontal, non-homogeneous current in general bottom topography

A coupled-mode model is developed for treating the wave–current–seabed interaction problem, with application to wave scattering by non-homogeneous, steady current over general bottom topography. The vertical distribution of the scattered wave potential is represented by a series of local vertical modes containing the propagating mode and all evanescent modes, plus additional terms accounting for the satisfaction of the free-surface and bottom boundary conditions. Using the above representation, in conjunction with unconstrained variational principle, an improved coupled system of differential equations on the horizontal plane, with respect to the modal amplitudes, is derived. In the case of small-amplitude waves, a linearised version of the above coupled-mode system is obtained, generalizing previous results by Athanassoulis and Belibassakis [J Fluid Mech 1999;389:275–301] for the propagation of small-amplitude water waves over variable bathymetry regions. Keeping only the propagating mode in the vertical expansion of the wave potential, the present system reduces to an one-equation model, that is shown to be compatible with mild-slope model concerning wave–current interaction over slowly varying topography, and in the case of no current it exactly reduces to the modified mild-slope equation. The present coupled-mode system is discretized on the horizontal plane by using second-order finite differences and numerically solved by iterations. Results are presented for various representative test cases demonstrating the usefulness of the model, as well as the importance of the first evanescent modes and the additional sloping-bottom mode when the bottom slope is not negligible. The analytical structure of the present model facilitates its extension to fully non-linear waves, and to wave scattering by currents with more general structure.     

A coupled-mode system with application to nonlinear water waves propagating in finite water depth and in variable bathymetry regions

A non-linear coupled-mode system of horizontal equations is presented, modelling the evolution of nonlinear water waves in finite depth over a general bottom topography. The vertical structure of the wave field is represented by means of a local-mode series expansion of the wave potential. This series contains the usual propagating and evanescent modes, plus two additional terms, the free-surface mode and the sloping-bottom mode, enabling to consistently treat the non-vertical end-conditions at the free-surface and the bottom boundaries. The present coupled-mode system fully accounts for the effects of non-linearity and dispersion, and the local-mode series exhibits fast convergence. Thus, a small number of modes (up to 5–6) are usually enough for precise numerical solution. In the present work, the coupled-mode system is applied to the numerical investigation of families of steady travelling wave solutions in constant depth, corresponding to a wide range of water depths, ranging from intermediate depth to shallow-water wave conditions, and its results are compared vs. Stokes and cnoidal wave theories, as well as with fully nonlinear Fourier methods. Furthermore, numerical results are presented for waves propagating over variable bathymetry regions and compared with nonlinear methods based on boundary integral formulation and experimental data, showing good agreement.     

常压酸溶-电感耦合等离子体质谱法测定地球化学勘查样品中的铌钽

常压酸溶法因溶矿效率高、成本低、检出限低,在地质实验室被广泛应用,但采用常用的氢氟酸-硝酸-盐酸-高氯酸四酸法处理样品,铌钽溶出率低,铌钽在容器壁发生水解和聚合反应导致其部分吸附或沉降,从而使测试结果偏低。因此,应用常压酸溶-电感耦合等离子体质谱(ICP-MS)分析地球化学勘查样品中的铌钽,需要解决的两个关键问题是铌钽的溶出率和试液中铌钽的水解。针对溶出率的不足,本方法在酸体系中引入硫酸,即氢氟酸-硝酸-盐酸-高氯酸-硫酸可以完全将铌钽溶出;针对水解,采用5%氢氟酸-5%硫酸-5%过氧化氢为提取剂,并采取与样品前处理相同分析流程的标准物质制作曲线,这两个方法相结合能有效抑制样品溶液中铌钽的水解,同时标准物质制作曲线法降低了ICP-MS分析中的样品溶液与标准溶液基体不一致引起的误差。本方法经国家标准物质验证,相对误差小于±7%,相对标准偏差在3.11%~6.27%之间(n=11),铌钽的检出限分别为0.04μg/g和0.03μg/g,相比于碱熔法检出限0.33μg/g具有明显优势,可以准确测定地球化学勘查样品中的铌钽。