新疆北部地区积雪深度变化特征及未来50a的预估

分析比较参加CMIP3计划的全球气候模式,在20C3M下各模式1961-1999年平均积雪深度和观测资料比较的基础上,检验了模式对积雪深度的模拟能力.在此基础上,选用INM-CM3.0和CGCM-T47_1模式对北疆地区未来50 a的积雪变化进行了预估.由于受GCM的空间分辨率和新疆北部地区地形、盆地沙漠下垫面、水汽来源和干旱气候环境的影响,CMIP3模式的GCM在新疆北部地区的模拟能力有限.通过相关系数和均方差误差的双重检验,选取了在新疆地区模拟能力较好的INM-CM3.0和CGCM-T47_1模式的模拟结果对新疆地区未来的积雪变化进行了预测.结果表明,在A1B、B1情景下,2002-2050年,总体上新疆北部地区的积雪深度均呈减少趋势;A2情景下,INM-CM3.0、CGCM-T47-1模式在准葛尔盆地地区积雪变化的模拟结果存在差异,但未来40 a新疆地区除天山附近外,积雪深度变化呈减少趋势.     

Thermomechanical response of a poroelastic half-space soil medium subjected to time harmonic loads

The thermomechanical responses of a porous elastic medium subjected to time harmonic loads (normal force and thermal source) are investigated analytically in the context of generalised thermoelastic theory with one relaxation time. The material of the foundation, obeying Biot’s dynamic poroelastic theory, is idealised as a uniform, fully saturated poroelastic half-space stratum. The coupled governing equations are established based on Biot’s dynamic poroelastic theory and on generalised thermoelastic theory. Assuming the disturbances to be harmonically time dependent, the general solutions of stress, displacement, temperature distribution and excess pore water pressure are deduced using the Fourier transform, and the transformed solutions are numerically inverted. The differences among the coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical dynamic model (THMD), the hydro-mechanical dynamic model (HMD) and the thermo-elastic dynamic model (TMD) are discussed. In addition, the effects of the thermal loading frequency on the displacement, stress, temperature distribution and excess pore water pressure components are analysed in the numerical results.     

景观格局与水土流失的尺度特征与耦合方法

景观格局与生态过程的耦合研究是景观生态学研究的核心科学问题,也是综合自然地理学深化和发展的关键.尺度广泛存在于生态学现象中,尺度效应与尺度转换是景观生态学研究面临的挑战,探讨格局与过程之间相互作用机理与尺度特征是为解决尺度问题提供理论依据的必然途径.水土流失作为一种生态过程,是国内外颇为关注的生态问题.依据多种研究手段,在不同尺度上开展景观格局与水土流失的相互关系与尺度特征的研究,在分析景观格局的时空异质性、水土流失的影响因子与尺度效应的基础上,揭示流域景观格局与水土流失的耦合机理,发展尺度转换方法和景观格局-水土流失过程耦合模型,是完善景观生态学的理论基础,是为水土流失区生态建设提供科学依据的重要途径.     

Vulnerability and resilience: Coalescing or paralleling approaches for sustainability science?

Vulnerability and resilience constitute different but overlapping research themes embraced by sustainability science. As practiced within this science, the two research themes appear to coalesce around one of the foundational pivots of sustainability, the coupled human–environment system. They differ in regard to their attention to two other pivots, environmental services and the tradeoffs of these services with human outcomes. In this essay I briefly review the emergence of sustainability science and the three foundational pivots relevant to vulnerability and resilience. I outline the distinctions and similarities between the two research themes foremost as practiced within sustainability science and especially in regard to the attention given to the three pivots. I conclude with the observation that improvement in the capacity of vulnerability and resilience research to inform sustainability science may hinge on their linkages in addressing tradeoffs.     

诱发地震与诱发性前兆

本文以１９６９年以来中国大陆９对ＭＳ≥５．９级地震为例，引出诱发性前兆的概念。诱发性前兆是指远区强震（Ａ）发生后３个月内产生于未来后续地震（Ｂ）附近（△≤２００ｋｍ）的，并与该地震有某种成因联系的继发性异常和新异常。诱发地震与诱发性前兆是反映强震间耦合作用的同因异象。１９８８年以来南北带强震组（１９８８年耿马、澜沧７．６级地震──１９９０年天祝、景泰６．２级地震）诱发地震和诱发性前兆显著，并呈连锁式分布，表明该地震组各强震之间具有较强的耦合作用。     

Antarctic circumpolar modes in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model

Eastward-propagating patterns in anomalous potential temperature and salinity of the Southern Ocean are analyzed in the output of a 1000-year simulation of the global coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM ECHO-G. Such features can be associated with the so-called Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW). It is found that time–longitude diagrams that have traditionally been used to aid the visualization of the ACW are strongly influenced by the width of the bandpass time filtering. This is due to the masking of considerable low-frequency variability that occurs over a broad range of time scales. Frequency–wavenumber analysis of the ACW shows that the eastward-propagating waves do have preferred spectral peaks, but that both the period and wavenumber change erratically when comparing different centuries throughout the simulation. The variability of the ACW on a variety of time scales from interannual to centennial suggests that the waiting time for a sufficient observational record to determine the time scale of variability of the real world ACW (and the associated decadal time scale predictability of climate for southern landmasses) will be a very long one.Responsible Editor: Dirk Olbers     

Dynamic process analyses of saline intrusion with over-exploitation by coupled flow and dispersive modelling

Understanding of saline intrusion into coastal aquifer is an important issue in management and protection of groundwater resource, which can be well achieved by groundwater modelling. To explain some phenomena of correlation between groundwater level and salinity in observation wells in coastal area, the authors compare the migration velocity of saline particles and transmission velocity of water pressure and derive analytical equations of these two velocities for plane and radial flows. The driving force and resistance of saline intrusion were analysed based on the analytical modelling. The destruction and reconstruction of the equilibrium between fresh water seepage towards sea and saline dispersion to inland were considered as an essence of whole intrusion process. The dynamic process of seepage and dispersion at different stages of saline intrusion were analysed under groundwater over-exploitation. The basic equations of saline intrusion were derived and the mechanism of transitional zone movement was discussed. These constitute coupled seepage–dispersion theory of saline intrusion, which becomes an important supplement to existing theory of saline intrusion. As a case study on saline intrusion in Guangrao County in Eastern China, this theory was applied to predict the development of saline intrusion in the study area.     

A new laboratory set-up for measurements of electrical, hydraulic, and osmotic fluxes in clays

If clays are subjected to flows of fluid, electrical charge, chemicals, or heat, in most cases, flows of different types occur simultaneously, even if only one driving force is acting. These are so-called coupled flows. Examples of coupling phenomena are streaming potential and electroosmosis, induced by the flows of fluid and electrical charge, respectively.

Since the 1960s, laboratory devices have been constructed to measure streaming potentials and/or electroosmosis in clays or clayey soils. Due to their mechanical and hydraulic properties, clays are not easy to work with. Consequently, laboratory devices have to deal with various complications. A new design for an experimental set-up is proposed. Contrary to earlier devices, the clay sample is mounted in a flexible wall permeameter, which avoids sidewall leakage caused by the possible swell or shrink of the clay. Gold-coated gauze electrodes completely cover the surfaces of the sample, which are in contact with the solution reservoirs that ensure one-dimensional flow. In addition, the thickness of the sample is monitored during the experiment. The chemical composition of the reservoir fluids is controlled during the experiment. The device is flexible with respect to changing the solutions of both reservoirs independently, applying different hydraulic gradients, and measuring or applying electrical potentials. Finally, it is possible to mount undisturbed clay samples in the set-up, keeping them in situ during the whole experiment.

With this set-up, an extensive program of measurements of coupling phenomena like streaming potentials, electroosmosis, and membrane potentials in a sodium montmorillonite is started. Preliminary results of streaming potential measurements are presented and demonstrate that the build-up of a streaming potential due to a hydraulic gradient is a reproducible process that influences the water flow through the clay, and that the extent of the streaming potential depends on the salt concentration of the permeating solution.     

干旱区绿洲与荒漠相互作用下陆面特征的数值模拟

用新发展的二维中尺度土壤－植被－大气连续体数值模式,系统地模拟了绿洲与荒漠相互作用下的陆面特征和地表面能量输送特征。这一模拟结果不仅部分地验证了陆面过程野外实验的观测结果。     

组合逻辑自动综合的超前试探法

自动逻辑综合是复杂组合电路设计中必须面对的问题之一。本文采用超前试探策略，在改进的Ｑ－Ｍ法基础上，提出了一个新的组合自动综合的新算法，该算法提高了运算速度，有较强的实用价值