Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.     

Peak discharge of a Pleistocene lava-dam outburst flood in Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA

The failure of a lava dam 165,000 yr ago produced the largest known flood on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. The Hyaloclastite Dam was up to 366 m high, and geochemical evidence linked this structure to outburst-flood deposits that occurred for 32 km downstream. Using the Hyaloclastite outburst-flood deposits as paleostage indicators, we used dam-failure and unsteady flow modeling to estimate a peak discharge and flow hydrograph. Failure of the Hyaloclastite Dam released a maximum 11 × 10⁹ m³ of water in 31 h. Peak discharges, estimated from uncertainty in channel geometry, dam height, and hydraulic characteristics, ranged from 2.3 to 5.3 × 10⁵ m³ s⁻¹ for the Hyaloclastite outburst flood. This discharge is an order of magnitude greater than the largest known discharge on the Colorado River (1.4 × 10⁴ m³ s⁻¹) and the largest peak discharge resulting from failure of a constructed dam in the USA (6.5 × 10⁴ m³ s⁻¹). Moreover, the Hyaloclastite outburst flood is the oldest documented Quaternary flood and one of the largest to have occurred in the continental USA. The peak discharge for this flood ranks in the top 30 floods (>10⁵ m³ s⁻¹) known worldwide and in the top ten largest floods in North America.     

湖北省巴东县黄土坡滑坡深部变形防治方案探讨

文章根据几年来从事黄土坡滑坡区的勘查、可研及现场工程管理的认识，从滑坡分布特征、物质构成、稳定研究、变形特征等方面对滑坡进行研究。针对该滑坡厚度巨大，滑体强度高，近期深部变形较明显的实情，作者以库仑定律为基础，提出采用岩土加固治理滑坡区深部滑移的初步治理方案。     

Fuzzy neural network models for liquefaction prediction

Integrated fuzzy neural network models are developed for the assessment of liquefaction potential of a site. The models are trained with large databases of liquefaction case histories. A two-stage training algorithm is used to develop a fuzzy neural network model. In the preliminary training stage, the training case histories are used to determine initial network parameters. In the final training stage, the training case histories are processed one by one to develop membership functions for the network parameters. During the testing phase, input variables are described in linguistic terms such as ‘high’ and ‘low’. The prediction is made in terms of a liquefaction index representing the degree of liquefaction described in fuzzy terms such as ‘highly likely’, ‘likely’, or ‘unlikely’. The results from the model are compared with actual field observations and misclassified cases are identified. The models are found to have good predictive ability and are expected to be very useful for a preliminary evaluation of liquefaction potential of a site for which the input parameters are not well defined.     

含预制软弱带的岩石破裂过程的数值模拟

考虑到岩石脆性破坏过程中介质的不均匀性之特点，对岩石样品中含预制弱介质条带的岩石样品破坏过程进行二维有限元数值模拟，并对弱介质带的破坏贯通过程、新的断层的产生和有关的地震活动进行了研究．数值模型展示了岩石从变形、微观破坏到整体破坏的全过程以及微震活动的时空分布特征．应力、应变和微震活动的时空分布形象地描绘了岩石变形的局部化和时空迁移等现象，这与实际地壳中所观测到的现象是一致的．此外，模拟结果与实验观测结果也是一致或相似的．      

遥测地震仪发射机电路分析及检修

在无线遥测地震仪器中 ,发射机长期使用容易出现输出功率下降、无输出功率、发射频率不准等故障。分析了发射机典型电路——石英晶体主振电路、倍频电路、激励级电路、功率放大级电路的基本原理。排除发射机的故障时 ,先从不同单元电路逐一检查、测试 ,判断故障类型 ,最后进行发射机总调试     

Investigating Landslides Caused by Earthquakes – A Historical Review

Post-earthquake field investigations of landslide occurrence have provided a basis for understanding, evaluating, and mapping the hazard and risk associated withearthquake-induced landslides. This paper traces thehistorical development of knowledge derived from these investigations. Before 1783, historical accounts of the occurrence of landslides in earthquakes are typically so incomplete and vague that conclusions based on these accounts are of limited usefulness. For example, the number of landslides triggered by a given event is almost always greatly underestimated. The first formal, scientific post-earthquake investigation that included systematic documentation of the landslides was undertaken in the Calabria region of Italy after the 1783 earthquake swarm. From then until the mid-twentieth century, the best information on earthquake-induced landslides came from a succession ofpost-earthquake investigations largely carried out by formal commissions that undertook extensive ground-based field studies. Beginning in the mid-twentieth century, when the use of aerial photography became widespread, comprehensive inventories of landslide occurrence have been made for several earthquakes in the United States, Peru, Guatemala, Italy, El Salvador, Japan, and Taiwan. Techniques have also been developed for performing ``retrospective' analyses years or decades after an earthquake that attempt to reconstruct the distribution of landslides triggered by the event. The additional use of Geographic Information System (GIS) processing and digital mapping since about 1989 has greatly facilitated the level of analysis that can applied to mapped distributions of landslides. Beginning in 1984, syntheses of worldwide and national data on earthquake-induced landslides have defined their general characteristics and relations between their occurrence and various geologic and seismic parameters. However, the number of comprehensive post-earthquake studies of landslides is still relatively small, and one of the most pressing needs in this area of research is for the complete documentation of landslides triggered by many more earthquakes in a wider variety of environments.     

广州白云堡豪苑观光塔滑坡的形成与防治研究

以往常有两种误区：(1)认为单斜岩层边坡只要坡脚处岩层不被切断，就不会破坏；(2)植树绿化和排水设施的设置总是对边坡的稳定性有利的。文章通过野外调查和力学模型分析了坡脚处岩层未被切断的白云堡豪苑观光塔处单斜岩层滑坡的形成机制，认为该滑坡属于顺层边坡溃屈型的板裂破坏——溃屈破坏，分析了滑坡的稳定性及剩余滑动力。分析表明，人工开挖后边坡的防治方法和措施不当对该滑坡的产生起了非常关键性的作用，其中盲目的植树绿化和排水沟设置成了边坡不稳定的主要诱导因素。由此可见，边坡(滑坡)防治措施的选择对其稳定性具有非常重要的意义。最后，提出切中要害的滑坡防治方案。     

Mechanisms of riverbank failure along the Arno River,central Italy

Riverbanks along the Arno River have been investigated with the aims of de?ning the main mechanisms of failure and retreat, their spatial distribution, and their causes. Geomorphological aspects were investigated by a reconnaissance of riverbank processes, for a number (26) of representative sites. Laboratory and in situ tests were then performed on a selected number of riverbanks (15). Based on the material characteristics, six main typologies of riverbanks have been de?ned, with homogeneous ?ne‐grained and composite banks representing the most frequent types. Slab‐type failures are the most frequent mechanism observed on ?ne‐grained banks, while cantilever failures prevail on composite banks. The role of river stage and related pore water pressure distributions in triggering the main observed mechanisms of failure has been investigated using two different types of stability analysis. The ?rst was conducted for 15 riverbanks, using the limit equilibrium method and considering simpli?ed hypotheses for pore water pressure distribution (annulment of negative pore pressures in the portion of the bank between low water stage and peak stage). Stability conditions and predicted mechanisms of failure are shown to be in reasonably good agreement with ?eld observations. Three riverbanks, representative of the main alluvial reaches of the river, were then selected for a more detailed bank stability analysis, consisting of: (a) de?nition of characteristic hydrographs of the reach with different return periods; (b) modelling of saturated and unsaturated ?ow using ?nite element seepage analysis; and (c) stability analysis with the limit equilibrium method, by adopting pore water pressure values derived from the seepage analysis. The results are compared to those obtained from the previous simpli?ed analysis, and are used to investigate the different responses, in terms of stability, to different hydrological and riverbank conditions. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

三峡库区云阳新城水平层状岩体高边坡变形破坏主要控制因素

本文对三峡库区云阳新城一些高边坡的勘察成果进行了总结,目的在于了解云阳新城区近水平岩层条件下边坡变形破坏的型式、主要控制因素及支护要点。结果表明,云阳新城高边坡普遍存在表层剥落现象,含膨胀性矿物(主要是伊利石和绿泥石)的泥质岩较快速风化作用是造成边坡表层剥落式渐进性破坏的主要原因;沿卸荷裂隙与泥化夹层的崩滑是边坡失稳的主要型式,但边坡之间崩滑失稳的程度存在较大差异,一些边坡存在相对较为强烈的卸荷及边坡失稳问题,主要归因于其存在与边坡近于平行的构造裂隙。认为及时进行护坡并在工程设计中考虑结构面的存在型式是边坡防护的重点。