创造性开展工作与培养创造性人才——《林肯寻找格兰特》读后感

最近局领导向处级干部推荐《林肯寻找格兰特,如何创造性地完成任务》一文,读后深有启示。本文就学习这本书后得到启发性理念:如何培养个人的创造性,从而在工作中积极主动,开拓创新,进而成就自己的事业,实现自己的人生价值,同时在如何培养和造就创造性人才脱颖而出的机制和环境方面阐述了作者的观点。     

磨刀门河口沉积物粒度特征与沉积环境

磨刀门河口的发育深受地质构造和动力条件的制约，在河流和海洋的相互作用下，形成了复杂的沉积特征。根据磨刀门河口表层沉积物的粒度分析结果，运用数学地质方法对粒度参数进行多元统计对应分析，并在此基础上结合地貌和动力条件，分析河口的沉积物粒度特征及其动力沉积环境。结果表明，河口表层沉积物主要有粉砂质粘土、粘土质粉砂、极细砂、细砂等类型；沉积环境可划分为河口主槽沉积环境、涨潮流沉积环境、浅滩沉积环境、拦门沙坝沉积环境及河口前缘沉积环境。     

北京二十里长山-平谷盆地MT测量与地层含水性研究

在北京东部的顺义二十里长山-平谷盆地进行了75个测点的大地电磁测量.通过应用TE与TM联合模式下的Occam以及Rebocc二维反演方法获得的电性结构模型,揭示了该区第四系覆盖层的厚度、基岩顶部电性分布特征、断裂构造以及含水岩溶发育情况.测量结果表明,测区第四系覆盖层普遍富水,二十里长山断裂两侧为2个差异明显的水文地质单元,断裂构造控制了基岩中含水岩溶的发育;在平谷盆地,含水岩溶明显受断裂构造控制,呈现出一种上下相通的"网络状"分布格局.     

凹凸棒石黏土脱色力的测试

针对凹凸棒石黏土脱色力测试过程中实验条件难统一、影响因素多而复杂、测试结果误差大、现有测试方法规定不明确等现状，结合甘肃省某地凹凸棒石黏土脱色力的测试，通过一些条件实验，提出了较为合理的测试方法。国家标准物质测试结果与标准值相符，方法精密度（RSD，n=6）小于2％。     

THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FORCED WIND ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL

With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly (NCEPWSA) and FSU wind stress anomaly (FSUWSA) is analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model (ZC coupled model) with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows. The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA. Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 El Ni?o 6 to 8 months ahead; further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.     

小震活动增强图像与1996年新疆两次强震的中期预报

阐述了小震活动增强图像的物理基础,资料分析处理方法和地震活动水平等级划分标准、预报判据及回顾性检验结果。还介绍了１９９６年新疆阿图什６．７级和喀喇昆仑７．１级２次强震的中期预报过程。震例分析表明;多数目标地震发生前１－２年内出现区域小震活动增强异常图像,若取异常结束后１２个月作为预报时段,则异常对频率为０．３５,有震报准率为０．７０,通过Ｒ值检验,中期预报效果较好。     

预报地震的地电阻率台址电性结构特征参数的研究

以地下浅部水平层状介质模型为基础，依据电测深资料，计算研究了表征台址电性结构具有抑制干扰能力和映震能力的特征参数：干扰系数α、γ和异常系数β及其物理特性和应用。综合研究结果表明，特征参数比电测深曲线和电性参数更直观、定量地表征台址电性条件的优劣，应用更广泛。     

重力方法在地震预报中的作用

利用重力方法研究地球的潮汐和非潮汐变化。通过它们的变化规律了解地下介质的质量变化和密度分布以及地球弹性模量与地震的关系。２０多年地震预报实践表明，重力方法在地震预报中有其特殊作用。根据目前在台站或测点按波速异常所圈定的孕震区内发生的地震统计检验：台站监测能力为４４％，重力重复测量的监测能力可达５６％。     

THE UNDERSTANDING OF ENSO CYCLE MECHANISM AND ENSO POTENTIAL PREDICTION ABILITY

In recent years,the dynamic coupled models of ocean-atmosphere and statistical models havebeen used in routine operation for issuing long-lead forecasts.The dynamic coupled models consistof models with varying degrees of complexity,ranging from simplified coupled models of theshallow water to coupled general circulation models.During the period of 1980—1992,somemodels performed considerably better than the persistence forecast on predicting typical indices ofENSO for lead time of 6 to 12 months.It seems that ENSO is predictable at least one year inadvance.However.nearly all the models have lost their skill of forecasting sea surface temperature(SST)changes in the eastern equatorial Pacific since 1992.It is a challenge not only to the dynamicmodels but also to the understanding of the ENSO cycle mechanism.This paper examines multipletime-space scales of the ocean-atmosphere interactions and potential prediction ability of ENSOevent by using data analysis and model study.     

Quasi-static deformation of a layered half-space by a long strike-slip fault

Theoretical expressions for the surface displacement and shear stress caused by a long strike-slip dislocation in an elastic layer overlying an elastic half-space are derived and the correspondence principle is used to obtain the quasi-static response when the half-space is Maxwell-viscoelastic. Variation of the surface displacement and shear stress with horizontal distance is studied for various times and vertical extents of the fault. It is seen that the quasi-static response differs significantly from the corresponding elastic response.