南极普里兹湾附近海域表层海流特征分析

利用第29次南极科考期间在普里兹湾海区释放的8个Argos漂流浮标所获的总计662 d的数据,对普里兹湾及其邻近海域的表层海流特征进行了分析,并和以前的研究结果进行对比,结果表明:普里兹湾西部和北部表层海流基本呈现向西的流动,说明此地区的表层海流以沿南极大陆的逆时针沿岸流为主。普里兹湾东部海流呈现先向南再向西或先向南再向北的流动,普里兹湾西北部海流呈现向南的流动。8个浮标平均流速在0.02—0.20 m·s~(-1)之间,最大流速为1.57 m·s~(-1),流速1.0 m·s~(-1)的大流速区主要集中在普里兹湾、克洛斯角外侧、达恩利角外侧海域,流速1.5 m·s~(-1)的大流速区只出现在普里兹湾、克洛斯角外侧两处海域。     

基于锚系观测的北冰洋加拿大海盆中层水变化研究

20世纪90年代以来,北极进入了以海冰快速减少为显著特征的快速变化时期。通过分析“波弗特流涡观测计划”在北冰洋加拿大海盆的4个站点上布放剖面观测系统所获得的2003—2011年的温度、盐度剖面观测数据,研究了加拿大海盆北极中层水的变化特征。在观测期间,加拿大海盆中央区中层水核心温度变化较小,楚科奇海台地区有明显下降特征,海盆中央区以北以及加拿大群岛陆坡边缘区核心温度呈持续升高趋势。北极中层水核心深度在4个站点都有不同程度的加深趋势,加深的程度和参与分析的表层淡水含量以及因海冰消失导致的风应力变化有一定的对应特征。4个站点表层(75—200 m)的热含量在无冰海域有明显的增长,在有冰海域热含量较稳定;加拿大海盆200—400 m和400—800 m深度范围内的热含量变化情况与中层水核心深度的变化情况一致,伴随着中层水核心深度加深至400 m乃至更深处,中层水的能量也逐渐下移,造成200—400 m水层能量普遍降低而400—800 m水层能量普遍增加。加拿大海盆4个观测站点因背景环境条件和所受影响的不同,造成了中层水的变化和响应趋势的差异。     

Unravelling the evolution of an Alpine to post-glacially active fault in the Swiss Alps

The Gemmi fault is a prominent NW–SE striking lineament that crosses the Gemmi Pass in the central Swiss Alps. A multidisciplinary investigation of this structure that included geological mapping, joint profiling, cathodoluminescence and scanning electron microscopy, stable isotope measurements, luminescence- and U-TH-dating, 3D ground penetrating radar (GPR) surveying and trenching reveals a history of fault movements from the Miocene to the Holocene. The main fault zone comprises a 0.5–3 m thick calcite cataclasite formed during several cycles of veining and brittle deformation. Displaced Cretaceous rock layers show an apparent dextral slip of 10 m along the fault.A detailed study of a small sediment-filled depression that crosses the fault provides evidence for a post-glacial reactivation of the fault. A trench excavated across the fault exposed a Late-Glacial-age loess layer and late Holocene colluvial-like slope-wash deposits that showed evidence for fault displacement of a few centimeters, indicating a recent strike-slip reactivation of the fault. Focal mechanisms of recent instrumentally recorded earthquakes are consistent with our findings that show that the fault at the Gemmi Pass, together with other parallel faults in this area, may be reactivated in today's stress field. Taking together all the observations of its ancient and recent activity, the Gemmi fault can be viewed as a window through geological space and time.     

The application of satellite differential SAR interferometry-derived ground displacements in hydrogeology

The application of satellite differential synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry, principally coherent (InSAR) and to a lesser extent, persistent-scatterer (PSI) techniques to hydrogeologic studies has improved capabilities to map, monitor, analyze, and simulate groundwater flow, aquifer-system compaction and land subsidence. A number of investigations over the previous decade show how the spatially detailed images of ground displacements measured with InSAR have advanced hydrogeologic understanding, especially when a time series of images is used in conjunction with histories of changes in water levels and management practices. Important advances include: (1) identifying structural or lithostratigraphic boundaries (e.g. faults or transitional facies) of groundwater flow and deformation; (2) defining the material and hydraulic heterogeneity of deforming aquifer-systems; (3) estimating system properties (e.g. storage coefficients and hydraulic conductivities); and (4) constraining numerical models of groundwater flow, aquifer-system compaction, and land subsidence. As a component of an integrated approach to hydrogeologic monitoring and characterization of unconsolidated alluvial groundwater basins differential SAR interferometry contributes unique information that can facilitate improved management of groundwater resources. Future satellite SAR missions specifically designed for differential interferometry will enhance these contributions.     

基于自适应时序剖分与KNN的短时交通流量预测

在智能交通系统中,准确和高效的短时交通流量预测是交通诱导、管理和控制的前提。由于交通流量动态变化中表现出的时变性和非平稳性特征,其预测难度较大,是交通领域中亟待解决的难题。为提高短时交通流量的预测精度,本文设计与实现了基于自适应时序剖分与KNN（A-TS-KNN）的短时交通流量预测算法。① 基于动态时间规整（Dynamic Time Warping,DTW）动态剖分单日时序为不同的交通模式;② 在不同交通模式,采用互信息法求解每个预测时刻时间延迟的最大阈值,构造不同时间延迟的状态向量,生成交通流量历史数据库;③ 采用十次十折交叉验证的方法求解每个时刻不同时间延迟与不同K值的正交误差结果分布,提取误差最小的正交结果,得到自适应时间延迟与K值的参数组合;④ 采用K个最相似的近邻的距离倒数加权值作为预测结果。对比K近邻（K-nearest neighbors, KNN）、支持向量回归（Support vector regression,SVR）、长短期记忆神经网络（Long-short term memory neural network,LSTM）以及门控递归单元神经网络（Gate recurrent unit neural network,GRU）共4种主流预测模型,A-TS-KNN算法预测精度显著提升;将A-TS-KNN算法用于福州市城市路网中其他交叉路口的短时交通流量预测,结果表现出良好的泛化能力。     

泥石流源地松散体起动人工降雨模拟及放水冲刷实验

以神府－东胜矿区人为泥石流及云南东川蒋家沟自然泥石流为研究对象,采用人工降雨及放水冲刷模拟实验方法,分析了不同类型,不同地区泥石流源地松散体起动条件及泥石流过程,得出一些有意义的结论。     

海岸沙丘沙运动特征若干问题的研究——以闽江口南岸为例

在海岸带,沙粒粒径和水分含量是决定沙粒起动风速的最主要因素。闽江口南岸海滩沙的平均粒径为2.0Φ,水分含量多在0.3%~1.0%之间。运用Johnson的经验公式,可计算出海滩沙的起动风速为6~7m/s。这一结果与实际观测值十分吻合。由于海岸环境因素的影响,使得同等条件下海岸带沙粒的起动风速明显大于内陆沙漠沙,而风沙流的输沙率明显小于内陆沙漠沙。海岸带是风速剧变带,在引用陆地气象台站的风速记录分析海岸风况和研究风沙运动规律时,必须对风速进行订正。     

台风移动规律的研究 Ⅰ.非绝热加热与水平温度分布的影响

根据大气运动原始方程组导出一个支配台风中心移动的基本方程。方程中包括了非绝热加热、温度场分布、地形与摩擦等各种可能影响台风移动的强迫因子。对非绝热加热与水平温度分布的作用所作分析表明,非轴对称的非绝热引导作用可使台风加速、减速或转向运动;温度场上的冷区对台风有吸引作用。      

煤层瓦斯流动方程补正

瓦斯流动方程是煤层瓦斯流动理论的基石,它反映了煤层内瓦斯流动的机理。本文在达西定律基础上,修正了一类煤层瓦斯流动方程。      

虾池生态系能流结构分析

阐述虾池生态系的能流结构,将虾池生态系分为两个亚系统：浮游亚系统与底栖亚系统,在浮游亚系统中有３个功能群,底栖亚系统中有５个功能群。系统的能量来源为人工投饵和太阳光。研究分析两个亚系统中各个生物状态变量的公式表达及其在系统中的功能,阐明了能量在系统中的流动方向和公式表达。浮游亚系统与底栖亚系统通过ＰＯＣ的沉降过程以及营养盐在沉积物中的生物地化循环再生后,经由水／底界面进入水体而耦合。