SENSITIVITY OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOIL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH CHINA

The impacts of soil moisture(SM) on heavy rainfall and the development of Mesoscale Convection Systems(MCSs) are investigated through 24-h numerical simulations of two heavy rainfall events that occurred respectively on28 March 2009(Case 1) and 6 May 2010(Case 2) over southern China. The numerical simulations were carried out with WRF and its coupled Noah LSM(Land Surface Model). First, comparative experiments were driven by two different SM data sources from NCEP-FNL and NASA-GLDAS. Secondary, with the run driven by NASA-GLDAS data as a control one, a series of sensitivity tests with different degree of(20%, 60%) increase or decrease in the initial SM were performed to examine the impact of SM on the simulations. Comparative experiment results show that the 24-h simulated cumulative rainfall distributions are not substantially affected by the application of the two different SM data,while the precipitation intensity is changed to some extent. Forecast skill scores show that simulation with NASA-GLDAS SM data can lead to some improvement, especially in the heavy rain(芏50 mm) forecast, where there is up to 5% increase in the TS score. Sensitivity test analysis found that a predominantly positive feedback of SM on precipitation existed in these two heavy rain events but not with completely the same features. Organization of the heavy rainfall-producing MCS seems to have an impact on the feedback process between SM and precipitation. For Case 1, the MCS was poorly organized and occurred locally in late afternoon, and the increase of SM only caused a slight enhancement of precipitation. Drier soil was found to result in an apparent decrease of rainfall intensity,indicating that precipitation is more sensitive to SM reduction. For Case 2, as the heavy rain was caused by a well-organized MCS with sustained precipitation, the rainfall is more sensitive to SM increase, which brings more rainfall. Additionally, distinctive feedback effects were identified from different stages and different organization of MCS, with strong feedback between SM and precipitation mainly appearing in the early stages of the poorly organized MCS and during the late period of the well-organized MCS.     

Unstable steam-water convection as possible trigger to earthquakes

Convection occurs when two water reservoirs, the overlying and the underlying, are connected by a narrow channel and the fluid in the lower reservoir is heated to the stage of phase transition into steam. The laboratory study of the properties of unstable steam-water convection showed that under favourabieP-T conditions the convection can be the triggering mechanism of seismicity. This type of convection causes a sudden fall of pressure in the lower reservoir and in the connecting channel, the impulsive mechanical disturbances, and cyclicity. The point of initiation of this phenomenon can be located at a depth of 5–7 km from the earth's surface with subsequent propagation of the process of instability to larger and smaller depths. This model of the natural terrestrial conditions can account for the earthquake cyclicity in the same focal zones, the rise of temperature and of the level of ground waters during earthquakes, the enhancement of seismicity while filling the water storage basins, the effect of floating up of hypocenters of aftershocks and the greater intervals between them.     

Asymmetric distribution of the ionospheric electric potential in the opposite hemispheres as inferred from the SuperDARN observations and FAC-based convection model

We compare the SuperDARN convection patterns with the predictions of a new numerical model of the global distribution of ionospheric electric potentials. The model utilizes high-precision statistical maps of field-aligned currents (FAC) derived from measurements made by polar-orbiting low-altitude satellites. Both the solar and auroral precipitation contributions are included in order to derive the ionospheric conductance. Taking into account the electrodynamic coupling of the opposite hemispheres, the model allows one to obtain the convection patterns developed simultaneously in both hemispheres for given input parameters. SuperDARN, with its database containing global northern and southern convection maps, provides the unique opportunity to compare the model predictions of electric fields with observations. In the present study we focus on the effect of significant interhemispheric asymmetry governed by the IMF clock angle and solar zenith angle. We calculate the convection patterns for specific cases caused by the sign of B_Y and season and demonstrate the capability of the FAC-based model reproduce the radar observations. The simulation confirms that the solar zenith angle should be linked to the IMF clock angle to fully characterize the convection patterns. The model predicts that the cross-polar cap potential drop is regularly larger in the winter hemisphere than in the summer hemisphere.     

Transition to two-dimensional turbulent convection in a rapidly-rotating annulus

Abstract

We study a semi-analytical model of convection in a rapidly-rotating, differentially-heated annulus with sloping top and bottom lids. Rapid rotation leads to a preservation of relatively simple, two-dimensional (2-D) structure in the experimentally-observed flow, while temporal complexity increases with the Rayleigh number. The model is, therefore, two-dimensional; it exhibits a sequence of bifurcations from steadily-drifting, azimuthally-periodic convection columns, also called thermal Rossby waves, through vacillation and a period-doubling cascade, to aperiodic, weakly-turbulent solutions.

Our semi-analytical results match to within a few percent previous numerical results with a limited-resolution 2-D model, and extend these results, due to the greater flexibility of the model presented here. Two types of vacillation are obtained, which we call, by analogy with classical nomenclature of the baroclinic annulus with moderate rotation rates, amplitude vacillation and tilted-trough vacillation. Their properties and dependence on the problem's nondimensional parameters are investigated. The period-doubling cascade for each type of vacillation is studied in some detail.     

河套地区典型干线的形成及其在对流触发中的作用

利用高空、加密地面、EC-ERA5(0.25o×0.25o)再分析和FY-2系列静止气象卫星云图(可见光星下点分辨率1.25 km,红外5 km)等资料,对黄河河套地区3次典型干线的形成及其在对流触发中的作用进行了详细分析.结果表明:(1)3次干线触发对流出现在中高纬度高空槽东移诱发蒙古气旋发展的背景下,高低空系统配置...     

一次冰雹过程的对流单体识别与防雹效果分析

利用2018年6月12—13日山东鲁西北地区一次冰雹过程的常规气象资料,分析了冰雹形成的天气形势和物理量指标条件以及防雹效果。结果表明：人工防雹作业前后雷达回波指标呈明显的下降趋势,其中VIL值、回波顶高指标变化分别平均下降49.9%、37.4%,冰雹概率由作业前99.3%下降到作业后的28.7%,回波强度、回波顶高、VIL值下降最大值分别为10 dBz、7 km、48 kg·m^-2。通过对比分析两个相似对流单体的发展演变,实施防雹作业的对流单体回波强度下降7 dBz、回波顶高下降3 km、VIL值下降11 kg·m^-2、冰雹概率出现剧烈波动,防雹作业后较作业前回波强度、回波顶高、冰雹概率下降速度明显加快,而没有实施防雹作业的对流单体雷达回波综合指标在编号期间变化幅度小,进一步证实了人工防雹作业有效。     

Possibility of Convection for Diffusion (Newtonian) Viscosity in the Ice Shell of Europa?

Recent investigations into convection in Europa’s ice shell have been based on non-Newtonian (stress-dependent) or Newtonian (stress-independent) viscosity for water ice. However, despite the wide use of Newtonian convection, experimentally observed water ice flow is non-Newtonian, and analysis of stability against convection of the ice shell using updated flow laws has been only performed for non-Newtonian rheologies. Here we use the flow law proposed for diffusion creep to analyze the possibility of the onset of convection for Newtonian viscosity in relation to the thermal state of Europa. Our findings indicate that for diffusion creep convection might have started, but that significantly lower heat flows (and equivalently higher shell thicknesses) and/or grain sizes are required than for superplastic flow, which is the most probable flow mechanism if the ice shell is convective.     

对流参数化与微物理过程的耦合及其对台风预报的影响研究

在SAS（Relaxed Arakawa-schubert Scheme）对流参数化方案中引入对流云和层状云的相互耦合机制,并通过一个台风个例对改进前后两种方案的预报效果进行了比较。试验结果表明：对于台风这种对流云和层状云相互作用非常强烈的天气系统,在对流参数化方案中引入对流云和层状云的耦合机制可以有效地提高模式对台风路径的预报水平,但是对于台风强度的预报效果不明显。考虑对流参数化和微物理过程耦合后模式的参数化降水变弱而格点降水增强,与NCEP再分析资料的对比发现,改进方案对于台风外围的大尺度温度场和湿度场的预报会有所改进,但仍然存在偏干偏冷的现象。对雨和雪的不同处理方式、不同云底条件以及是否考虑雨雪的卷入抬升三个方面进行了敏感性试验,发现72 h内模式预报结果对这些因素的差异不是很敏感。从多个个例的统计结果来看,新方案对台风路径预报的改进效果是比较稳定的。     

Nonlinear Convection in a Rotating Annulus with a Finite Gap

Thermal convection in a fluid-filled gap between the two corotating, concentric cylindrical sidewalls with sloping curved ends driven by radial buoyancy was first studied by Busse (Busse, F.H., "Thermal instabilities in rapidly rotating systems", J. Fluid Mech . 44 , 441-460 (1970)). The annulus model captures the key features of rotating convection in full spherical geometry and has been widely employed to study convection, magnetoconvection and dynamos in planetary systems, usually in connection with the small-gap approximation neglecting the effect of azimuthal curvature of the annulus. This article investigates nonlinear thermal convection in a rotating annulus with a finite gap through numerical simulations of the full set of nonlinear convection equations. Three representative cases are investigated in detail: a large-gap annulus with the ratio of the radii ( s i and s o ) of the sidewalls ξ = s i / o s = 0.1, a medium-gap annulus with ξ = 0.35 and a small-gap annulus with ξ = 0.8. Near the onset of convection, the effect of rapid rotation through the sloping ends forces the first (Hopf) bifurcation in the form of small-scale, steadily drifting rolls (thermal Rossby waves). At moderately large Rayleigh numbers, a variety of different convection patterns are found, including mixed-mode steadily drifting, quasi-periodic (vacillating) and temporally chaotic convection in association with various temporal and spatial symmetry-breaking bifurcations. Our extensive simulations suggest that competition between nonlinear and rotational effects with increasing Rayleigh number leads to an unusual sequence of bifurcation characterized by enlarging the spatial scale of convection.     

Linear Stability of Thermal Convection in Rotating Systems with Fixed Heat Flux Boundaries

Linear stability of rotating thermal convection in a horizontal layer of Boussinesq fluid under the fixed heat flux boundary condition is examined by the use of a vertically truncated system up to wavenumber one. When the rotation axis is in the vertical direction, the asymptotic behavior of the critical convection for large rotation rates is almost the same as that under the fixed temperature boundary condition. However, when the rotation axis is horizontal and the lateral boundaries are inclined, the mode with zero horizontal wavenumber remains as the critical mode regardless of the rotation rate. The neutral curve has another local minimum at a nonzero horizontal wavenumber, whose asymptotic behavior coincides with the critical mode under the fixed temperature condition. The difference of the critical horizontal wavenumber between those two geometries is qualitatively understood by the difference of wave characteristics; inertial waves and Rossby waves, respectively.