伊犁一次区域性暴雨分析

利用伊宁新一代天气雷达资料,结合高空和地面观测资料,分析了2010年7月19日伊犁地区一次局地暴雨天气过程。结果表明：此次强对流天气过程的主要影响系统为500 hPa中亚低槽、200hpa高空急流、低层风速辐合和地面雷暴高压。较强的层结不稳定和低层垂直风切变有利于对流的产生;云图和雷达资料分析表明,此次局地暴雨是由中尺度强对流云团产生,具有典型的对流单体形成、发展成回波短带合并形成带状回波,该带状回波最后演变成一个尺度较大的弓形回波。     

The Effect of Stratification on the Aerodynamic Roughness Length and Displacement Height

The roughness length, z _0u , and displacement height, d _0u , characterise the resistance exerted by the roughness elements on turbulent flows and provide a conventional boundary condition for a wide range of turbulent-flow problems. Classical laboratory experiments and theories treat z _0u and d _0u as geometric parameters independent of the characteristics of the flow. In this paper, we demonstrate essential stability dependences—stronger for the roughness length (especially in stable stratification) and weaker but still pronounced for the displacement height. We develop a scaling-analysis model for these dependences and verify it against experimental data.     

太阳5分钟振荡的激发机制

1 引言 太阳5分钟振荡是上世纪1个重要的发现[1],它使得人们可以通过观测太阳表面的振动来探测其内部的结构,日震学已取得了巨大的进展,然而我们至今仍不了解其脉动的激发机制,它依然是1个存在争议的问题.太阳位于造父变星脉动不稳定区之外,所以大多数人都相信,由于对流的阻尼,太阳是脉动稳定的,太阳和太阳型恒星的振荡都是由所谓的湍流随机激发机制所激发[2-8].     

A Review of Radar- and Satellite-based Observational Studies and Nowcasting Techniques on Convection Initiation

Convection often produces severe weather which causes a great loss to human lives and properties. Precisely predicting the convection initiation process is crucial but challenging in operational convection nowcasting (0~2 h forecasting). Before the radar-defined CI occurring (e.g., the first occurrence of ≥35 dBZ echoes), observations at high spatial and temporal resolutions from weather radars and geostationary meteorological satellites can reveal precursor information such as the boundary-layer convergence lines and the rapid growth of newborn cumulus clouds. These radar- and satellite-observed precursor information are helpful for evaluating the pre-CI conditions and thus nowcasting the accurate CI timing and location. This paper reviewed the current status of radar- and satellite-based CI research and nowcasting techniques. The milestone works and the following studies in the last four decades were summarized to demonstrate how radar and satellite observations can be related to CI occurrence. The objectives and approaches of the CI research advance as the improvement in the capability of radars and were explained satellites. The research progress aids in the development of various CI nowcasting techniques. This paper introduced three well-established techniques that have been put into operational application, namely, ANC system, SATCAST algorithm, and UWCI algorithm. Some scientific issues with respect to radar- and satellite-based CI research and nowcasting were also presented.     

盛夏青藏高原热源与菲律宾海对流活动的联系

通过多源资料诊断分析,本文讨论了盛夏（8月）青藏高原大气热源与菲律宾海对流活动之间的联系及可能的机制。结果表明,与青藏高原热源相联系的环流形势在夏季各月明显不同,因此对夏季青藏高原热源的影响应当分月讨论。在夏季各月中,菲律宾海对流活动与青藏高原热源在8月份的联系最为紧密,二者存在显著的反相关关系。而8月青藏高原热源、菲律宾对流活动、西太平洋副热带高压（简称西太副高）、印度季风低压、南亚高压、西风带槽脊和西北太平洋季风环流存在相互耦合的过程。青藏高原热源与菲律宾海对流活动之间联系的机制为:菲律宾海对流弱（强）年,西太副高偏西（东）偏南（北）,西北太平洋季风环流减弱（加强）,印度季风低压减弱（加强）,西风带南压（北抬）,又加之副高西侧有强（弱）的水汽输入,兼以高层南亚高压加强（减弱）,使得高原南部降水显著增强（减弱）,高原热源整体加强（减弱）,高原热源的加强（减弱）又造成了高原南部到东亚区域低层西南（东北）风异常,又利于西太副高偏西（东）偏南（北）,从而造成菲律宾海对流减弱（加强）。这一机制在高原热源强弱年均有表现,但强年表现得更为显著,并在个例中也有所体现,说明盛夏青藏高原热源异常和菲律宾海对流异常存在显著的相互作用。     

江西强雷电天气形势场及雷达回波特征分析

利用常规天气资料、地面观测资料、江西WebGIS雷达拼图和雷电监测资料,对2014—2016年江西出现的22次强雷电天气过程进行统计和对比分析。结果表明:江西强雷电天气易出现在赣北北部、南昌附近、上饶地区和吉安西部等区域;强雷电天气出现的环境背景场可分为副热带高压边缘型、副热带高压控制型、低涡切变型和台风外围型,最显著的特征是中高空经常伴有干冷舌侵入低层暖湿区;多项对流指数可以预测出现强雷电天气的可能性;雷达回波和雷电强度关系密切,回波类型以带状和块状为主;雷电强度和雷达回波强度有很好的对应关系,但产生强雷电的回波要具备强度大于50 dBz、强回波中心密实、强回波边缘梯度大等条件。     

EnSRF雷达资料同化对一次强对流天气模拟的影响研究

利用ARPS(Advanced Regional Prediction System)模式和具有流依赖背景误差协方差的集合均方根滤波(Ensemble Square Root Filter,简称En SRF)方法,通过同化多部多普勒雷达资料,对2013年6月23日的强对流天气过程进行了研究。首先对比同化试验和观测的组合反射率因子,检验了同化效果。通过计算均方根误差和离散度,进一步定量评估了同化结果。再对比模式变量,综合分析了En SRF雷达资料同化对模式热力、动力、湿度和微物理量等变量的影响。最后对集合平均场进行1 km的高分辨率数值模拟。结果表明:En SRF能够同化出与观测类似的对流系统,且减弱了南北部的虚假回波。径向风和反射率因子的均方根误差明显减少。En SRF雷达同化能够明显优化模式的初始场,同化试验的回波在垂直方向上范围增加,强度偏弱。在强对流区域,低层的冷池温度最多降低6 K,相对湿度最多增加30%。对流区域的雨水、冰晶和雪的混合比均有明显增加。模拟发现同化试验能够较好地模拟出对流系统的结构和位置。     

Nighttime convection in the interior of a dense Douglas fir forest

Infrared radiative surface temperatures as observed over a dense Douglas fir forest during stable atmospheric conditions are analyzed. It is shown that the concept of a single surface temperature to describe both the thermal coupling and the radiative coupling between atmosphere and forest fails when longwave cooling is large and wind speeds are low. In such cases a decoupling of the radiative surface temperature from the air temperature aloft is observed. Conditions for decoupling are formulated in terms of an appropriate Richardson number. It is shown that a convective surface temperature comes into play that is coupled to the forest interior air temperature. Observed radiative surface temperature is then composed of this convective surface temperature and the aerodynamic surface temperature. Forest interior air temperature during nighttime is, in general, lower than air temperature above the canopy. A simple two-layer canopy model is used to explain this phenomenon in terms of the distribution of atmospheric sensible heat flux and storage heat flux over the two canopy layers.     

On the propagation of topographically trapped waves

Abstract

In the context of ageostrophic theory in a homogeneous ocean, a nondimensional number is determined which corresponds to the Ursell number for long gravity waves. It is defined as Q = NL ²/h ³, where N is the amplitude of the wave travelling along the long length-scale direction, L is its length and h (which for gravity waves is the water depth) is given by h=(l ⁴ f ²/g)^1/3. where l is the short length-scale, f the Coriolis parameter and g the acceleration due to gravity. The physical meaning of Q is as follows: if Q? O(1) the free evolution of the wave is linear and weakly dispersive, if Q = O(1) nonlinear and dispersive effects balance out and finally if Q ?O(1) the evolution is nonlinear and non-dispersive. Expressions for the time scales for the development of dispersive and nonlinear effects are also determined. These results apply to topographically trapped waves, namely barotropic continental shelf and double Kelvin waves travelling along a rectilinear topographic variation.