2015年北京田径世锦赛开幕式天气的精细化预报与方法

重大活动关键时段的定点预报一直是天气预报服务的难点,因此对2015年北京田径世锦赛开幕式天气的预报思路和方法进行分析总结,结果表明开幕式天气采取了时间、空间逐步递进的精细化预报思路,每个阶段的预报重点、使用的预报方法和信息资料是不同的。短期预报以天气诊断和数值预报方法为主,应用多尺度数值模式和集合预报产品,预报出开幕式当天在东北冷涡背景下北京东部的强对流天气和鸟巢出现弱降水的可能性;短时临近预报依据高时空分辨率的探测资料、快速更新的同化产品和中尺度模式,采用多资料融合技术,对稳定度、水汽和阵风锋等多要素综合分析,预判雷暴的生消变化,跟进预报了开幕式鸟巢地区无降水,保障活动顺利举行。     

中国东部地区大气水汽稳定同位素的影响因子追踪研究

大气水汽稳定同位素是现代水循环的重要示踪剂,可以有效地追踪水汽来源及其输送过程。在中低纬度季风区,局地“降水量效应”是大气水汽稳定同位素的主要特征,但是近期研究表明,水汽来源及其输送过程等非局地因素也有重要影响。因此,本文基于拉格朗日粒子扩散模式和卫星遥感观测的大气水汽稳定氘同位素数据（数值表示为千分差,δD）,针对前人研究较少的中国东部石笋氧同位素区域,进行水汽源地追踪,并在季节和年际尺度上分析水汽δD的主要影响因素。结果表明,在季节尺度上,水汽δD在夏末秋初较低,冬春季较高,这种特征与局地气象因子、水汽源地贡献的关系较弱,水汽输送路径上的累积降水是影响水汽δD季节变化的主要因素,两者为显著的负相关关系。在年际尺度上,厄尔尼诺（El Ni?o）年夏季中国东部水汽δD较高,拉尼娜（La Ni?a）年夏季水汽δD较低。水汽源地贡献在ENSO（厄尔尼诺—南方涛动）不同位相的变化较小,而水汽输送路径上的累积降水在La Ni?a年较之El Ni?o年偏多,表明La Ni?a年热带对流活动和水汽输送过程的贫化作用更强,导致目标区域的水汽δD更低。因此,代表热带对流活动的累积降水是水汽δD季节和年...     

Stochastic Excitation of Gravity Waves by Overshooting Convection in Solar-Type Stars

The excitation of gravity waves by penetrative convective plumes isinvestigated using 2D direct simulations of compressible convection.The oscillation field is measured by a new technique based on theprojection of our simulation data onto the theoretical g-modes solutionsof the associated linear eigenvalue problem. This allows us to determineboth the excited modes and their corresponding amplitudes accurately.     

基于雷达四维变分分析系统的强对流高分辨率模拟个例分析和批量检验

利用以雷达资料快速更新四维变分同化(RR4DVar)技术和三维数值云模式为核心的模拟分析系统,通过同化京津冀区域6部新一代天气雷达逐6 min的径向速度和反射率因子资料,并融合区域自动站逐5 min观测和中尺度数值模式结果,对发生在京津冀地区的18个对流风暴"事件"进行了高分辨率数值模拟,开展了个例分析和全部模拟结果的检验评估。个例分析结果表明,模拟的低层三维动力、热动力和水汽特征可以明确解释复杂地形条件下对流风暴的局地新生、组织化和线状中尺度对流系统(MCS)的形成。高分辨率模拟结果也明确指示了线状中尺度对流系统中对流风暴单体不断新生(再生)和"后向传播"的机制,以及地形强迫在风暴形成和演变中的重要作用。基于一部风廓线雷达、两部地基微波辐射计、一个秒级探空和一个边界层观测塔等局地高频非常规观测数据对18个对流风暴"事件"模拟结果的检验表明,0-3 km的风速、风向和温度的模拟误差(包括偏差和均方根误差)总体较小。其中,最低模式层(187.5 m)风速偏差和均方根误差分别在-0.5和0.9 m/s以内,最高检验层(2.8125 km)风速偏差和均方根误差分别在-0.9和1.6 m/s以内,风速误差随高度逐渐增大;风向偏差在14°-22°,风向均方根误差小于38°;温度偏差和均方根误差分别在-1和1.8℃以内。系统模拟的低层风速、风向和温度的偏差和均方根误差在对流风暴内部稍大于外部。上述研究表明,该系统模拟结果对对流风暴生消、发展及生命史特征的临近预报和预警具有重要指示意义。     

Travelling wave convection in a rotating layer

Abstract

Small amplitude two-dimensional Boussinesq convection in a plane layer with stress-free boundaries rotating uniformly about the vertical is studied. A horizontally unbounded layer is modelled by periodic boundary conditions. When the centrifugal force is balanced by an appropriate pressure gradient the resulting equations are translation invariant, and overstable convection can take the form of travelling waves. In the Prandtl number regime 0.53 < [sgrave] < 0.68 such solutions are preferred over the more usual standing waves. For [sgrave] < 0.53, travelling waves are stable provided the Taylor number is sufficiently large.     

Steady-state convection in a rotating long cavity

Abstract

Convection experiments in a rotating long cavity were conducted to investigate the changes introduced by Coriolis-force to the well understood convection in the (nonrotating) long cavity. In the far convective regime, the results indicated that large-scale features of the convection were dominated by geostrophically balanced confined primary currents. Close to the transition regime, where the intruding currents gain a thickness close to the vertical dimension of the tank, secondary features became predominant. In the transition regime, these secondary features were not present and the simple picture of two cavity filling counter currents with laterally tilted isotherms could be confirmed.     

对流和加热对重力惯性波的激发

用线性模型讨论了对流和加热对重力惯性波的激发，分别讨论了初始垂直速度扰动和初始位温扰动及大气内部加热在静态层结大气中激发的重力惯性波，及重力惯性波过程引起的大气温压场的变化。得到的结果可以帮助理解中小尺度系统的发生发展，对流过程与环境大气的相互作用。     

One-dimensional modelling of convective CO2 exchange in the Tropical Atlantic

Diurnal changes in seawater temperature affect the amount of air–sea gas exchange taking place through changes in solubility and buoyancy-driven nocturnal convection, which enhances the gas transfer velocity. We use a combination of in situ and satellite derived radiometric measurements and a modified version of the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM), which includes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coupled-Ocean Atmospheric Response Experiment (NOAA-COARE) air–sea gas transfer parameterization, to investigate heat and carbon dioxide exchange over the diurnal cycle in the Tropical Atlantic. A new term based on a water-side convective velocity scale (w_*w) is included, to improve parameterization of convectively driven gas transfer. Meteorological data from the PIRATA mooring located at 10°S10°W in the Tropical Atlantic are used, in conjunction with cloud cover estimates from Meteosat-7, to calculate fluxes of longwave, latent and sensible heat along with a heat budget and temperature profiles during February 2002. Twin model experiments, representing idealistic and realistic conditions, reveal that over daily time scales the additional contribution to gas exchange from convective overturning is important. Increases in transfer velocity of up to 20% are observed during times of strong insolation and low wind speeds (<6 m s⁻¹); the greatest enhancement from w_*w to the CO₂ flux occurs when diurnal warming is large. Hence, air–sea fluxes of CO₂ calculated using simple parameterizations underestimate the contribution from convective processes. The results support the need for parameterizations of gas transfer that are based on more than wind speed alone and include information about the heat budget.     

Modelling Mean and Turbulence Fields in the Dry Convective Boundary Layer with the Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux Approach

The treatment of turbulence closure in atmospheric models is examined in the context of the dry convective boundary layer (CBL) and the eddy-diffusivity/mass-flux (EDMF) approach. The EDMF approach is implemented into a model called TAPM to use a coupled two-equation prognostic turbulence closure and the mass-flux approach to represent turbulence in the CBL. This work also extends the range of turbulence variables that can be derived from the mass-flux component of the model and uses these along with their values from the prognostic scheme to provide total turbulence fields that can be used to compare to data and/or to feed into other components of TAPM, including those needed to drive Eulerian and Lagrangian air pollution dispersion modules. Model results are presented for the afternoon of a simulated summer day and are compared to both laboratory and field observations in a mixed-layer scaled framework. The results show that the EDMF approach works well within TAPM and can provide good predictions of mean and turbulence fields, including in the upper levels of the CBL. The EDMF approach has several attractive features, including the potential to be one approach to unify the treatment of turbulence and dry and moist convection in atmospheric models.