降雨条件下边坡体积含水率变化规律研究

持续降雨是边坡发生失稳破坏的主要诱因之一,基于饱和—非饱和渗流理论,对梅州市大埔县某边坡的渗流场进行模拟,研究在不同降雨工况下该边坡土体体积含水率的时空变化规律。研究结果表明:相同条件下,降雨强度越大(降雨历时越长),边坡表层土体体积含水率变化越大;降雨强度60 mm/d历时1 d的暴雨对边坡表层土体体积含水率的增幅作用存在着一定的滞后性,其余工况未表现出滞后现象;降雨强度为120mm/d和300 mm/d的两种工况各研究点任意时段体积含水率较为接近;当降雨强度达到60 mm/d以上时,边坡内部体积含水率空间变化主要受降雨历时影响,降雨历时越长,降雨入渗深度和体积含水率变化越大。     

The effects of simulated inundation duration and frequency on litter decomposition: A one-year experiment

There is major uncertainty in the responses of litter decomposition to the inundation regimes in field studies, mainly because of the difficulties in identification of the individual effect of duration and frequency using field studies alone. The interactive role of inundation regime and litter quality also remains unclear. The responses of mass loss to simulated inundation regime (duration and frequency) and litter quality were investigated in leaves of Carex brevicuspis and leaves and stems of Miscanthus sacchariflorus from Dongting Lake, China. Three litter types differing in litter quality were incubated under seven different inundations over 360 days (three single inundations of 90, 180, and 360 days; three repeated 180-day inundations of 2, 3, and 6 times; and no inundations) in a pond near Dongting Lake. Initial N and P contents were highest in C. brevicuspis leaves, intermediate in M. sacchariflorus leaves, and lowest in M. sacchariflorus stems, whereas the organic C, cellulose, and lignin contents were ranked in the opposite order among the three litter types. Decomposition rate was highest in M. sacchariflorus leaves (0.00222–0.00900 day⁻¹), intermediate in C. brevicuspis leaves (0.00135–0.00500 day⁻¹), and lowest in M. sacchariflorus stems (0.00080–0.00100 day⁻¹). The decomposition rate of both C. brevicuspis and M. sacchariflorus leaves increased with increasing inundation duration or decreasing frequency. However, both duration and frequency of inundation had no effect on decomposition of M. sacchariflorus stems. At the end of the incubation, N mineralization was complete in leaf litters with increasing rates with increasing inundation duration or decreasing inundation frequency, but accumulation was found in M. sacchariflorus stems. Organic C decayed quickly in both leaf litters compared with the stem litter. These data indicate that inundation regime has no effect on the decomposition of refractory stem litter while prolonged and stable inundation stimulates the degradation of labile leaf litter.     

Variations in snowmelt energy and energy balance characteristics with larch forest density on Mt Iwate,Japan: observations and energy balance analyses

The variation in snowmelt energy and energy components were evaluated with respect to forest density. Surface snowmelt rates, surface evaporation from snow cover and meteorological elements were measured in the open and under sparse (411 trees/ha) and dense (1433 trees/ha) larch canopies. The surface snowmelt rate decreased as the forest density increased. Based on the observations and energy balance analyses, we concluded the following. (1) Albedo decreased while the bulk coefficient for latent heat increased with forest density. (2) The duration of snowmelt increased with forest density because the energy for nocturnal cooling of the snow cover decreased. (3) When comparing the open and forested sites, the changes in snowmelt energy with forest density were caused by sensible heat flux. However, the contribution of net radiation was highest in the forested sites. Therefore, the effects of forest cover on the snowmelt energy were different when comparing both the open and forested sites and the sparse and densely forested sites. (4) The ratio of net radiation to snowmelt energy increased with forest density; although both snowmelt energy and net radiation decreased with increased forest density, the snowmelt energy decreased more rapidly. Sensible heat also decreased as forest density increased. Both albedo and downward long‐wave radiation influenced net radiation. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

华东地区具有短期预测意义的特殊显著性地震事件识别

依据华东地区中强地震前的地震活动特点,初步提出“特殊显著性地震事件”SPE的概念及其可能的识别方法.具有前兆指示意义的SPE可划分为三类,三类SPE分别表达了主震前中小地震与主震之间的时空位置关系.I类SPE距主震时、空距离均较近,在一定程度上与“直接前震”具有相似之处;II类SPE距主震时间较近、而空间距离可能较远,但与主震之间有一定的构造联系,具有时间上的“信号地震”的意义.Ⅲ类必须首先通过地震活动性方法对可能的SPE进行筛选,之后通过比较其与之前在同一位置发生的一系列中小地震的地震波参数之间的差异,在一定程度上进一步确认其短期预测意义.华东6次中强地震震例的研究结果表明,当可能的SPE的单台波速比小于此前该区域长时期的均值、归一化尾波持续时间大于此前该区域长时期的均值以及振幅衰减系数与此前该区域长时期均值之差大于长时期均值的30％时,可进一步认定其短期前兆意义.     

城市化对北京地区日照时数和云量变化趋势的影响

利用1961～2008年北京城区和郊区12个台站的气候观测资料,采用趋势分析和累积距平的方法,研究了北京城区和郊区近48年的日照时数、总云量及低云量的年际和四季变化趋势,并探讨了城市化进程对日照和云量变化的影响。结果表明：近48年来,城区的总云量和日照时数呈减少趋势,但低云量呈增加趋势;郊区的总云量和低云量呈增加趋势,而日照时数呈减少趋势;具体到年代变化,1980年代初以后,城区总云量呈减少趋势,且1990年代减少的趋势最为明显,2000年后,城区总云量变化发生逆转,呈显著增加趋势。对于低云量,1960年代到1980年代,城区郊区低云量呈波动减少趋势,而1990年代到2000年代后呈波动增加趋势。对于日照时数,1960年代到1980年代城区郊区日照时数均呈增加趋势,1990年代至2000年代则呈明显减少的趋势。低云量与日照时数表现出明显负相关特征,这与北京城市化发展对区域气候的影响有密切的关系。     

近震信号检测参数设置研究

地震信号检测是进行各种地震数据分析和处理的首要任务,STA/LTA方法具有算法简单、便于实时处理等特点,被广泛应用于地震信号检测.结合实际震例数据研究STA/LTA方法进行地震信号检测的各种影响因素,得到该方法进行检测时最合理的参数设置范围.     

Source parameters determination for earthquakes in Kushiro,Japan considering source time function

This paper applies a new formulation to do moment tensor inversion for earthquakes in the Kushiro area of Japan. Comparing with conventional moment tensor inversion method, the new one takes the effect of source time function into consideration. For the inversion, best solution is obtained by minimizing the difference between the observed seismograms and the synthetic ones. And the best-fitting focal depth is determined from the variance reduction. The results indicate that half duration of source time function is proportional to the magnitude of earthquakes. Large earthquakes have long half duration, whereas that of moderate-small earthquakes is comparatively shorter. The focal mechanisms of all three earthquakes are of thrust fault type, which is mainly ascribed to the collision of the North American plate with the Eurasia plate in the late Cretaceous or Paleogene.     

Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California

Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings.Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10 min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3 h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1 h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D^− 0.7 and I = 9.5D^− 0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours).Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16 h, of low-intensity (2–10 mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33 h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D^−0.4, and I = 7.2D^−0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D^−0.5 is approximately 25 mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires.The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes.     

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty.     

从构造热事件探讨湖南志留纪沉积时限兼论盆地演化特征

湖南地区志留纪的沉积时限一直以来争议颇多,笔者通过对该区沉积特征及层序地层、构造运动分析发现:小溪峪组属于一套有障壁海岸浅海细碎屑沉积,是海水由南东向北西退却期的沉积响应,属于早期高水位体系域;泥盆系云台观组属一套海侵型的海相陆源碎屑岩沉积,从野外的界面特征分析云台观组为一套开阔海岸受波浪作用明显的以石英砂为主体的沉积物,属于广西运动之后由东南向北西形成的海侵过程的沉积响应。小溪峪组与云台观组二者所属沉积盆地环境和演化不同,其界面属于Ⅰ型层序界面,不整合接触。广西运动导致的江南造山带的隆起在430Ma左右结束,志留纪沉积盆地应大部分消亡,由此认为志留纪沉积盆地接受的沉积物时间也应在相对应时段中,小溪峪组在湖南地区不存在晚志留纪沉积物。