江苏省高影响性大雾天气演变特征及综合影响评估

利用江苏省分布较为均匀的59个台站1961—2006年的大雾日数资料,分析了大雾日数的年际变化特征;利用1961—2006年南京、淮安、徐州、赣榆、射阳、东台、吕泗、溧阳8站的资料重点研究了大雾的生成、消散及大雾持续时间变化特征。结果表明,年雾日数呈先升后降的分布形势,80年代前中期为大雾的鼎盛期,之后呈较快的下降趋势。大雾持续时间呈显著增长趋势,主要表现为雾消时间的推迟。考虑大雾日数和大雾持续时间2个因子的综合作用,设计了大雾综合影响指数,该指数的年际变化表征了江苏区域大雾天气的高影响性趋强。     

Factors in the resilience of electrical power distribution infrastructures

One measure of the resilience of any dynamical system is the speed of return to equilibrium following perturbation. In electrical power distribution systems this may be approximated by the duration of unscheduled outages due to failure of the distribution system (i.e., excluding outages due to failure of the generation or transmission systems). We hypothesize that the resilience of power distribution systems depends on two main factors. One is the power distribution infrastructure, the biophysical environment within which it operates, and interactions between the two. The other is the priority given to restoration by the power company, and the effectiveness of the power company’s response. To test this we modeled outage duration in the residential electrical power distribution system in part of the City of Phoenix, Arizona between 2002 and 2005. We found that while the type of infrastructure did not have a significant effect on outage duration, the interaction between infrastructure (overhead lines) and the biophysical environment (vegetation) did. We also found strong evidence that proximity to particular high priority emergency assets (i.e., hospitals) confers resilience on residential distribution systems. More generally, residential outage duration was found to be most spatially dependent up to around 1000 feet from an outage location. Overall, a spatial outage duration model provided a better fit to the data than a non-spatial model.     

登陆中国热带气旋台风季参数的气候特征分析

 利用1949-2006年登陆中国的热带气旋（TC）资料,分析登陆TC台风季参数的气候特征,结论如下：1) 登陆中国的初旋①以南海生成为主（占5成半）,终旋以西太平洋为主（高达8成）,近50多年来初、终旋源地分别呈现向东北、西北移动的趋势;2) 广东（浙江）初旋最早（晚）,广西、浙江（广东、海南）终旋较早（晚）,广东（浙江）台风季最长（短）。近50多年来除浙江台风季呈延长的线性趋势外,其余各省台风季变短或变化不明显。     

兴海6．6级地震前后地震波的变化

2000年9月12日在青海省海南州兴海县西南发生了6．6级地震。震后发现，青海省6个专业台站的地震波速比在震前出现了下降－低值－发震的过程。波速比空间分布在兴海地震前形成了一个椭圆形的异常分布区，异常波速比的地震占总地震的73％。另外，在武台的尾波持续时间在兴海地震前显示出了较为完整的异常过程。     

Duration of strong ground motion during Mexican earthquakes in terms of magnitude,distance to the rupture area and dominant site period

A study of the duration of strong ground motion using accelerometric data of subduction and normal‐faulting Mexican earthquakes is presented. Duration is obtained based on the time between 2.5 and 97.5 per cent of the Arias intensity. An expression to predict this duration in terms of the magnitude, distance to the rupture area and site period is proposed and compared with predictions available in the literature. The effect of large duration for very distant sites and the contribution of soft soils to the duration of strong ground motion are widely discussed. We have found that large magnitude not only yields long duration at the source, but also proportionally longer duration with distance and with dominant site period compared to small magnitude. The duration obtained from the regression is used as a parameter to obtain input and hysteretic energy and on the use of damage models available in the literature. Finally, duration is used together with the random vibration theory to predict response spectra. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

8807号登陆台风的数值研究：内核结构及能量水汽收支

使用PSU/NCAR研制的非静力中尺度模式MM5对登陆后维持较久的典型个例8807号台风(Bill)进行了数值模拟。模拟采用了网格距分别为18和6 km的两重双向嵌套网格。通过给定初始涡旋和选择合适的物理过程,模式不仅比较好地模拟了Bill的强度变化过程,而且再现了风暴的移动轨迹,对降水量的模拟也相当成功。文中利用细网格的模拟结果,分析台风登陆前后的内核结构特征和能量水汽收支,揭示Bill登陆后维持较久的可能原因。分析表明,Bill台风登陆后出现了中低层的稳定度特别是湿稳定度显著加大、表面热通量和水汽通量明显减小、摩擦耗散的动能显著增加等不利于台风维持的特征。但是台风登陆后眼墙结构长时间维持,在登陆初欺眼墙区的上升气流乃至较登陆前更强;台风登陆后通过低层辐合获得了大量水汽,眼墙区强劲的上升运动将低层辐合的水汽向中上层输送,在眼墙附近凝结产生大量的非绝热加热;非绝热加热不仅增暖气柱、增加位能还影响位能向动能的转换,虽然台风登陆后陆面摩擦显著加大,但气压梯度力所做的正功足以补偿摩擦耗散的动能,因而Bill能在登陆后长时间维持。     

Determination of bankfull discharge magnitude and frequency: comparison of methods on 16 gravel‐bed river reaches

Bankfull discharge is identified as an important parameter for studying river morphology, sediment motion, flood dynamics and their ecological impacts. In practice, the determination of this discharge and its hydrological characteristics is not easy, and a choice has to be made between several existing methods. To evaluate the impact of the choice of methods, five bankfull elevation definitions and four hydrological characterizations (determination of duration and frequency of exceedance applied to instantaneous or mean daily data) were compared on 16 gravel‐bed river reaches located in France (the catchment sizes vary from 10 km² to 1700 km²). The consistency of bankfull discharge estimated at reach scale and the hydraulic significance of the five elevation definitions were examined. The morphological definitions (Bank Inflection, Top of Bank) were found more relevant than the definitions based on a geometric criterion. The duration of exceedance was preferred to recurrence intervals (partial duration series approach) because it is not limited by the independency of flood events, especially for low discharges like those associated with the Bank Inflection definition. On average, the impacts of the choice of methods were very important for the bankfull discharge magnitude (factor of 1·6 between Bank Inflection and Top of Bank) and duration of exceedance or frequency (respectively a factor 1·8 and 1·9 between mean daily and instantaneous discharge data). The choice of one combination of methods rather than another can significantly modify the conclusions of a comparative analysis in terms of bankfull discharge magnitude and its hydrological characteristics, so that one must be cautious when comparing results from different studies that use different methods. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ground motion duration effects on nonlinear seismic response

The study presented in this paper addresses the question of which nonlinear demand measures are sensitive to ground motion duration by statistical analyses of several case studies. A number of single degree of freedom (SDOF) structures were selected considering: (1) four oscillation periods; (2) three evolutionary and non‐evolutionary hysteretic behaviours; (3) two target ductility levels. Effects of duration are investigated, by nonlinear dynamic analysis, with respect to six different demand indices ranging from displacement ductility ratio to equivalent number of cycles. Input is made of six real accelerogram sets representing three specific duration scenarios (small, moderate and large duration). For all considered demand quantities time‐history results are formally compared by statistical hypothesis test to asses the difference, if any, in the demand concerning different scenarios. Incremental dynamic analysis curves are used to evaluate duration effect as function of ground motion intensity (e.g. spectral acceleration corresponding to the SDOF's oscillation period). Duration impact on structural failure probability is evaluated by fragility curves. The results lead to the conclusion that duration content of ground motion is statistically insignificant to displacement ductility and cyclic ductility demand. The conclusions hold regardless of SDOF's period and hysteretic relationship investigated. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大港滩海区沙河街组一段下部流体包裹体特征

通过偏光显微镜、荧光显微镜和盐水包裹体测温等技术手段，结合成岩作用研究，将大港滩海区沙河街组一段下部有机包裹体划分为：液态烃包裹体、气液态烃包裹体及气态烃包裹体。根据研究区包裹体有机质成熟度的不同，又可将有机包裹体划分出4种类型。与有机包裹体同期的盐水包裹体均一测温数据表明：早期包裹体均一温度为88．1～113℃，中期包裹体均一温度为111．9～125．3℃，晚期包裹体均一温度为122．7～140℃。有机包裹体类型、丰度及其赋存在不同期次矿物中的事实表明：研究区油气运聚及深部流体作用活跃，至少发生过4个大期次的油气运移。     

Large displacement behaviour of a structural model with foundation uplift under impulsive and earthquake excitations

This paper considers the dynamical behaviour of a structural model with foundation uplift. The equations of motion of the system considered are derived for large displacements thus allowing for the eventual overturning of the system. The transition conditions between successive phases of motion, derived in terms of the specific Lagrangian co‐ordinates used in the formulation of the equations of motion, present innovative aspects which resolve some previously inexplicable behaviour in the structural response reported in the literature. The dynamical behaviour of the model is considered under impulsive and long‐duration ground motions. The minimum horizontal acceleration impulses for the uplift and the overturning of the system are evaluated in analytical form. The sensitivity of the model to uplifting and to overturning under impulsive excitations is established as a function of few significant structural parameters. Numerical applications have been performed changing either the structural parameters or the loading parameter, in order to analyse several dynamical behaviours and also to validate the analytical results. For earthquake ground motions the results, reported in the form of response spectra, show that linearized models generally underestimate, sometimes significantly, the structural response. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.