PARTITION OF SEASON BASED ON MULTIELEMENTS AND THE DECADAL CHANGE OF SEASON DURATION IN CHINA

Using the multielements similarity measurement method and 1950–2017 NCEP/NCAR gridded daily reanalysis datasets, we analyzed season duration in China during 1950–2016, and we defined the element with maximum absolute sensitivity as the key impact element at each point using the sensitivity analysis method. The decadal change of season duration and its key impact element before and after 1980 were studied. The results indicated obvious meridional and zonal differences in the distribution of season duration for the 67-year average, and that the key impact element has the same distribution characteristics as season duration. In addition, complementary relationships were found between the durations of spring and summer, autumn and winter, and the cold and warm seasons. Of those, the complementary relationship between the durations of spring and summer was strongest and the regions of complementarity were numerous. The complementary regions of autumn and winter durations were found mainly in western China. In the cold and warm seasons, the complementary regions were widespread and the complementary relationship was generally weak. Comparison of the periods before and after 1980 revealed an east–west difference in the interdecadal variation of season duration. Interdecadal variation in spring and summer was found concentrated in northern and western regions, while that in autumn and winter was concentrated in the western region. Areas of significant interdecadal variation of the key elements were found concentrated in northern and western regions, corresponding well with the areas of significant interdecadal variation of season duration.     

落石冲击下预应力加筋土路堤变形及荷载传递机制

针对偏远山区素填土公路在落石冲击下易产生大面积凹陷破坏的问题,提出运用预应力加筋土路堤解决的方法。为了探究预应力加筋土路堤在落石冲击下的变形性能、力学响应规律和荷载传递机制,设计并实施了落石冲击作用下预应力加筋土路堤和素填土路堤对比模型试验。试验发现：预应力加筋土路堤中形成的凹坑尺寸明显小于素填土路堤,体现了预应力加筋土路堤良好的抗冲击变形性能;随着冲击次数的增加,路堤刚度逐渐增加,导致路堤内部冲击附加应力时程曲线逐渐由“抛物线型单峰”转变为“双峰”分布,且预应力加筋土路堤工况中“双峰”的出现早于素填土路堤;落石在预应力加筋土路堤中的冲击力持续作用时间小于其在素填土路堤中的持续作用时间,且分布更趋均匀,更有利于冲击荷载的扩散;随着冲击次数的增加,预应力加筋土路堤内部冲击力传递率呈先增加后减小的变化趋势,与筋材变形规律一致。结合Levenberg-Marquardt优化算法得到了关于凹坑尺寸和冲击次数的预测方法,可为预应力加筋土路堤在崩塌灾害多发地区的工程应用提供借鉴,为工程预警提供参考。     

Significant duration predictive models developed from strong-motion data of thrust-faulting earthquakes recorded in Mexico City

Predictive models for estimating strong-motion duration in sites characterized by soft-soil profiles are presented in this paper. The models were developed using a strong-motion database that includes observations from subduction interface earthquakes that occurred from 1989 to 2020 and recorded in Mexico City, which is located at source-to-site distances up to 600 km. A linear mixed-effects regression model, which is a statistical fitting procedure that allows to consider the correlation structure of grouped data, was used to develop the predictive models. Relative significant duration was selected to measure strong-motion duration. This measure can be directly associated with the accumulation of energy of the ground movement. The proposed predictive models relate relative significant duration with moment magnitude, either hypocentral distance or closest distance to the rupture plane, and dominant period of the soil. Regression analyses were performed grouping the ground-motion data by both seismic event and site class. Model assumptions, such as homoscedasticity, normality, and linearity of effects, were verified from residual analyses. From the results, the expected value of the natural logarithm of relative significant duration was found to be ～1.2 times greater for an earthquake with a moment magnitude equal to 8.0 than for one of 6.0. An insightful discussion about the sources and character of the uncertainties detected in the proposed predictive models is also presented in this study. The predictive models proposed in this paper are of valuable application in seismic and structural engineering because they allow to circumscribe properly the dimension and randomness of strong-motion duration.     

辽宁朝阳地区季节冻土最大冻土深度和持续冻结时间与气候变化的响应研究

利用辽宁省朝阳市气象站1960-2015年的最大季节冻土深度、最长连续冻结时间的起始日和终止日数据,采用小波分析方法对朝阳地区季节性冻土的年际变化特征进行分析,并探讨影响季节性冻土发育的影响因素。结果表明：朝阳地区最大冻土冻结深度存在4种尺度上的周期震荡,其周期分别为23~32 a、16~22 a、10~15 a和4~9 a。冻土年际变化的转折期发生在20世纪90年代初,表明朝阳市冬季气候转暖的时间段也发生在90年代初。通过对气温与季节性冻土冻结深度以及冻结时间的相关性分析,得出气候变暖对朝阳市季节冻土影响显著,冬季平均气温和冬季最低气温是影响朝阳市季节冻土发育的重要因素,其中冬季气温日较差对其影响尤为明显。冬季最低气温与冻土主冻期时间关系最为密切,而影响主冻期结束时间的热力因子为冬季平均最高气温。     

考虑强地面运动持时影响的概率地震需求模型

选择合理的持时衰减关系,利用Monte-Carlo方法,抽取持时样本,根据震级M、震中距R和局部场地土壤条件S以及持时样本,选择符合条件的实际地震波记录,并进行合理的调值,对一座钢筋混凝土桥墩进行了非线性动力时程分析.对比强地面运动持时与能量需求参数和累积破坏参数的相关性,发现:幅值、频谱和持时对能量需求参数和累积破坏参数的影响是强烈耦合的,且强地面运动持时对两者的影响比较显著;在选择结构第一模态周期谱加速度和合理的能量需求参数,并分别作为地面运动强度参数IM和EDP建立概率地震需求模型时,要考虑持时的影响.     

高层混合结构滞回耗能比的研究

基于结构层间弯曲屈服强度的概念,提出了高层混合结构滞回耗能比的简化计算公式,该公式综合体现了结构以及地震动特征参数对结构滞同耗能比的影响。研究表明,结构滞回耗能比随地震动的峰值速度与峰值加速度的比值的增大而增大;随着地震动幅值的增大,滞回耗能比也线性增加;对于短持时地震动,滞回耗能比与强震持时之间没有一定的规律性,但对于长持时地震动,结构滞回耗能比会随强震持时的增大而线性增加。随着结构弯曲屈服强度系数的增大,结构滞回耗能比呈凹函数下降,结构的自振周期越大,同一弯曲屈服强度系数对应的滞回耗能比越小;钢框架与混凝土剪力墙承载力比值的增加能够降低结构的滞回耗能比。     

石羊河流域主汛期降水日变化特征

利用石羊河流域2009-2013年主汛期(6-8月)有完整资料的32个区域气象站和5个自动气象站共37个站点逐时降水资料,运用常规的气候统计方法,采用逐时降水量、逐时降水频次、逐时降水强度和不同持续时间降水4个指标对石羊河流域主汛期降水日变化特征进行了研究。结果表明:石羊河流域主汛期降水总量及日数的空间分布总体上与其地理位置、海拔、纬度以及影响系统密切相关,表现为自上游向下游呈递减趋势,降水强度空间分布较复杂。石羊河流域主汛期小时降水量、降水频次及降水强度呈三峰型分布,主要集中出现在20:00-23:00、01:00-09:00、14:00-20:00,其中强降水呈现双峰分布,基本都出现在20:00-23:00、14:00-20:00;石羊河流域主汛期持续1～3 h短时降水的降水量和降水次数大于持续10 h以上降水过程的降水量和降水次数,且持续1～6 h的短时降水多发于午后到傍晚,持续时间超过6 h的长持续性降水的最大降水量通常出现在夜晚-凌晨和午后-傍晚。     

近50年新疆日照时数时空变化分析

利用新疆101 个气象站1961-2010 年的逐月日照时数、总云量和低云量资料,使用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall 检测以及基于ArcGIS 的混合插值法对春、夏、秋、冬四季和年日照时数的变化趋势、突变特征以及日照时数多年平均值和突变前后变化量的空间分布及其与云量的关系进行了分析,结果表明：（1）新疆春季日照时数总体呈现“从东北向西南递减”的空间分布特点;夏季为“北疆多,南疆少,东部多、西部少,平原和盆地多,山区少”的格局;秋季呈现“由东南向西北递减”的分布格局;冬季具有“东部多,西部少”的特点。新疆各地年日照时数2450~3450 h,其空间分布总体呈现“东部多,西部少;平原和盆地多,山区少”的格局。（2）1961-2010 年,除春季日照时数呈不显著的略增趋势外,新疆夏季、秋季、冬季和年日照时数分别以-4.27 h·（10a）^-1、-4.30 h·（10a）^-1、-14.36 h·（10a）^-1和-19.42 h·（10a）^-1的倾向率呈显著的减少趋势。并且,夏季、秋季、冬季和年日照时数分别于1988 年、1986 年、1987 年和1982 年发生了突变。突变年前后,全疆各地日照时数的变化具有明显的区域性差异,以年日照时数为例,1982 年后较其之前,除吐鲁番、哈密盆地,塔里木盆地南缘等少部分区域年日照时数有所增多外,全疆大部为减少的态势。（3）云量是影响新疆日照时数的主要因素,总体来说,新疆总云量和低云量较少的区域日照时数相对较多;反之,亦然。近50a,新疆总云量变化不明显,但低云量明显增多,这是导致日照时数减少的主要成因。     

Evaluation of the WEPP model and digital elevation grid size,for simulation of streamflow and sediment yield in a heterogeneous catchment

The paper presents the result of an application of the GeoWEPP model in a heterogeneous semi‐agricultural catchment located in the northern Italian Apennines mountain range. The objectives were: (a) to evaluate the GeoWEPP model in a heterogeneous catchment in a Mediterranean climate and (b) to examine the effect of digital elevation model grid size on hydrological and sediment yield simulations. The catchment is characterized by large heterogeneity in geology, soil type, vegetation cover and topography. In addition, 10% of its area is occupied by calanchi (badlands), characterized by steep, bare soil and accentuated erosion. Experimental streamflow data were compared with those simulated by GeoWEPP for a period of eight years and the results were evaluated by means of statistical indices, with the analysis of the flow duration curve. Simulated sediment yields were compared with experimental data for one year. The streamflow cumulative annual results were satisfactory with NSE oscillating between 0.40 and 0.83 and RMSE between 1.1 and 2.9 mm. Also, the performance of the model with daily streamflow data was positive (NSE = 0.68 and RMSE = 1.9 mm). The flow duration curve indicated that GeoWEPP could represent the experimental streamflow for fluxes over 1 mm d^?1. The model performance for simulation of sediment yield was satisfactory with both digital elevation models of different grid sizes (NSE = 0.84 and 0.87). Indeed, the sensitivity analysis tests of the model showed that there was no statistically significant improvement in the accuracy of the digital elevation model between 10 and 2 m resolution. These results were confirmed for both streamflow as well as sediment yield. Additional sensitivity analysis of other model parameters performed on the entire catchment and badlands hillslopes showed that bedrock hydraulic conductivity primarily affected the model in both settings. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.