利用波形持续时间估算新疆地区中小地震震级

持续时间震级是常规震级类型之一,主要适用于区域地震台网。目前,国内多个地区已有持续时间震级经验公式,但中小地震频繁的新疆地区却没有较适用的经验公式。为了更好地把握新疆地区中小地震的震级,使用新疆测震台网数据,利用地震波形振动持续时间估算震级,对新疆地区2019年8月—2020年12月发生的225个M 2.0—4.0中小地震事件进行统计分析,将各事件持续时间与震级进行散点分析及对数拟合,得到新疆地区持续时间—震级规律与经验公式以及震级与持续时间的对照表。     

绿洲—沙漠过渡带风况资料统计中的若干问题研究——以策勒绿洲为例

时距和距地面高度一直是风况资料统计中的普遍问题,不同时距和不同高度的风况资料反映真实情况的准确度不同。利用中国科学院策勒荒漠草地生态系统国家野外观测研究站自动气象站及野外地面梯度风实际观测资料,对策勒绿洲-沙漠过渡带10 m高不同时距风速、10 min时距不同高度风速、平均风向及起沙风频率四个方面的问题进行分析。结果表明:不同时距的平均风速之间、最大风速之间、平均风速与最大风速之间均有比较稳定的关系,不随时间发生较大变化;不同高度的风速关系存在随距离接近拟合程度越好的总体规律,但在60 cm处有一定的偏离,主要与地表植被的平均高度有关;利用矢量合成法计算10 min风向,发现2 m高风向比10 m高风向沿逆时针方向偏转约45°;以气象站整时风资料与地面2 m高观测1 min风资料分别统计起沙风频率,发现在系统性天气中二者变化趋势一致,但在偶发性起沙风天气中会有较大差异。     

汶川Mw7.9地震余震序列触发机制研究

余震触发机制的Dieterich解析模型被广泛应用于区域地震活动性的定量分析以及依赖时间的概率地震预测模型的建立等方面.基于滑移速率和状态相依赖的摩擦定律和弹簧-滑块模型,从Dieterich断层滑移速率方程出发,给出了静态应力扰动下触发地震的时钟提前或推后的近似解,从而明确地阐明了触发地震的产生机制与断层的演化过程密切相关,并与传统位错模型下库仑应力扰动时间提前或推后量作了比较.采用对数线性拟合方法求得了汶川Mw7.9主震后余震序列持续时间,符合Dieterich理论结果.以汶川余震序列为例,给出了两种不同的应力扰动模式在该余震序列中的应用.结果表明,经典Dieterich扰动解无法给出主震发生后即时余震数量的异常增加,而考虑主震前后剪应力速率变化的Dieterich分段解则可反映出余震发生率及个数随时间的演化特征.     

Author index 2000

Abstract

Both the conventional and the Carlson trophic state index (TSI) classification methods were employed to assess the eutrophication state of 26 lakes in the Norfolk Broads, UK. The parameters employed were: Secchi depth, chlorophyll a and total phosphorous which had been obtained previously by using Landsat TM imagery, ground reference data and empirical algorithms for the Norfolk Broads (Baban, 1993). The conventional method did not provide sufficient differentiation between the Broads. The Carlson TSI provided sufficient information to differentiate between all 26 Broads. Consequently, using the Carlson TSI information, these Broads were classified into three groups. The classification was based on the relationship between the calculated Carlson TSI of the external phosphorous loading and its influence on the eutrophication process as deduced from the calculated TSI values for the other two parameters. The results were consistent with all the available knowledge and experience concerning these Broads and demonstrated the potential of combining remote sensing techniques and Carlson TSI in eutrophication assessment, ecosystem checking and watershed analysis.     

Tropical cyclones and floods in Fiji

Abstract

Daily flow records, rainfall data and tropical cyclone maps during 1970–1998 are used to document the impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) on floods in the Rewa River system, Viti Levu, Fiji. Floods are large, brief, isolated events caused by TCs and non-TC tropical rainstorms. More floods are caused by tropical rainstorms than by TCs, but TC floods are larger. The log Pearson Type III distribution consistently provided the best fit to partial duration flood series and the widely-recommended generalized Pareto distribution performed very poorly, underscoring the need to test a variety of distributions for a particular geographic location. Tropical cyclones occur more often in Fiji during negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and all TCs that occurred during El Niño conditions caused floods. Peak flood discharges caused by TCs are inversely correlated with the SOI, reflecting possible links with tropical cyclone frequency and precipitation intensity.     

Direct relationships of discharges to the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between their exceedences

Abstract

This article paves a way for assessing flood risk by the use of two-parameter distributions, for the intervals between threshold exceedences rather than by the traditional exponential distribution. In a case study, the apparent properties of intervals between exceedences of runoff events differ from those anticipated for exponentially distributed series. A procedure is proposed to relate two statistical parameters of the intervals to threshold discharges. It considers partial duration series (PDS) with thresholds equal to all high enough observed discharges. To avoid unnecessary assumptions on the behaviour of those parameters and effects of dependence between parameters for different PDS, a non-parametric trend-free pre-whitened scheme is applied. It leads to power-law relationships between a discharge and the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between its exceedences. Predicted mean inter-exceedence intervals, for the highest observed discharges at the stations, are closer to the observational periods than those predicted by GEV distributions fitted to AMS, and by GP distributions to fitted PDS. In the present case, the latter predictions are longer than the observational periods whereas some of the predicted mean inter-exceedences are shorter than the corresponding observational periods and some others are longer.

Citation Ben-Zvi, A. & Azmon, B. (2010) Direct relationships of discharges to the mean and standard deviation of the intervals between their exceedences. Hydrol. Sci J. 55(4), 565–577.     

基于流域面积～高程关系曲线的洪峰传播历时计算方法及其在长江流域的应用

流域内洪峰传播过程与流域的一些统计特性相关。本文基于重力驱动原理和流域面积~高程关系曲线,计算长江流域内洪峰传播历时。研究结果表明:由曲线法计算得到的长江流域53个子流域的洪峰传播历时与流域特征明显相关,曲线法计算值与经验公式计算值之间呈线性关系,通过线性转化可方便、快速地得到流域洪峰转播时间值。此方法可用于研究流域地貌与水文响应的关系及洪水快速预报。     

洪水超定量模型的广义Pareto分布及其应用

为了扩大洪水信息,提高洪水模拟精度,研究超定量洪水频率分析模型。介绍了洪水超定量模型的基本理论,假设超定量洪水年发生次数服从Poisson分布,超定量洪水系列服从广义Pareto(GP)分布,给出年最大超定量洪水分布和超定量洪水重现期的计算方法,提出通过模型拟合优度检验来综合确定超定量系列阈值的方法。将超定量模型应用在海河流域小觉站洪峰频率分析中,结果表明:通过模型拟合优度检验确定超定量系列阈值的方法有效且可靠,洪水超定量系列年平均发生次数服从Poisson分布,GP分布洪峰设计值略大于P-Ⅲ分布洪峰设计值,应用在水利工程设计及风险分析中是偏安全的。     

Distribution characteristics of wave energy in the Zhe-Min coastal area

A 10-year（2003–2012） hindcast was conducted to study the wave field in the Zhe-Min coastal area（Key Area OE-W2） located off Zhejiang and Fujian provinces of China. Forced by the wind field from a weather research and forecasting model（WRF）, high-resolution wave modelling using the SWAN was carried out in the study area. The simulated wave fields show a good agreement with observations. Using the simulation results, we conducted statistical analysis of wave power density in terms of spatial distr...     

1960—2020年内蒙古荒漠草原连续无降水日变化特征分析

基于内蒙古荒漠草原9个气象站逐日降水和美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)/美国国家大气研究中心(National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCAR)再分析资料,利用统计方法分析了该地区1960—2020年连续无降水事件变化特点及异常年份环流特征。结果表明:(1)连续无降水事件最多出现在夏季,但平均持续日数和最大持续日数在夏季最短,短期连续无降水事件和较长期降水事件相间出现是夏季降水分配格局,而其他季节则相反。(2)研究区年均无降水日数为304.1 d·a^?1,年均连续无降水事件次数为39.6次·a^?1,年均连续无降水事件平均持续日数为8.0 d·a^?1,年均最大持续日数为43.7 d·a^?1。(3)近61 a连续无降水事件3个参数变化不显著,但2005—2020年连续无降水事件次数显著增加而平均持续日数则显著减小。(4)年平均持续日数和最大持续日数均与连续无降水事件次数呈显著负相关关系,而平均持续日数和最大持续日数呈显著的正相关。(5)异常连续无降水事件期间对流层中高层有明显的温度、湿度和高度异常。