岷县漳县6.6级地震及余震强震动记录特征分析

对2013年7月22日甘肃岷县—漳县地震获取的273条主余震加速度记录进行格式转换、基线校正和滤波等常规处理,分析该地震主震(M_S6.6)和余震(M_S5.6)两次地震记录的幅值、持时以及反应谱特征,发现M_S6.6主震记录的PGA范围在0.728～177.5 gal间,M_S5.6余震记录的PGA范围在0.732～69.3 gal间;将观测数据与霍俊荣和第五代《中国地震动参数区划图》地震动衰减关系进行对比,发现霍俊荣衰减关系更吻合于此次地震的主余震加速度衰减;绘制主余震5%～95%重要持时分布图,并针对主震62MXT反应谱和本地设计谱以及近些年国内主要强震震中反应谱开展比较分析;最后研究土层台、基岩台、相同台站各个震级反应谱的特征。     

考虑地震动持时效应的输电塔-线体系响应研究

研究了地震动持时效应对输电塔-线体系动力响应的影响。基于能量持时的定义方法,选取了一组包括20条长持时和20条短持时的地震动作为输入。地震动调幅至0.2g和1.2g来分别研究地震动持时效应对结构弹性和塑性响应的影响,并选取输电塔的塔顶峰值加速度、位移、主材应力以及节间位移角作为评价指标。结果表明:地震动持时效应对所选取的评价指标具有不同的影响规律,在输电塔-线体系动力响应研究中持时效应不容忽视。可以为输电塔的抗震设计提供有益的参考。     

Evaluating the performance of a deterministic daily rainfall–runoff model in a low-flow context

The characterization of a stream's low-flow regime is required for ecological purposes, water quality studies and various other water projects. If observed stream flow records are insufficient, low-flow characteristics may need to be estimated from simulated daily stream flow time-series. The model employed should conceptualize low-flow generation mechanisms and surface–subsurface interactions adequately. The ability of the model to simulate low-flow regimes may be assessed by means of various low-flow analysis techniques. This paper illustrates the approach using the example of the physically based, semi-distributed VTI daily rainfall–runoff model. The model has been applied to five perennial headwater catchments in South Africa, which are located in different parts of the country, represent different physiographical environments and are characterized by different baseflow responses. The model simulations are evaluated in terms of both conventional goodness-of-fit criteria and several low-flow measures such as recession characteristics, baseflow volumes, flow duration curves and continuous low-flow events below specified threshold discharges. For all the catchments considered the model has been found to perform successfully in terms of conventional fit statistics and flow duration curves. However, its ability to reproduce recession characteristics and continuous low-flow spells appears to be less satisfactory. This suggests that daily model simulations should be evaluated by low-flow criteria, which are frequently ignored in water resource assessment practices. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of the pressurized duration on improving dredged slurry with air booster vacuum preloading

Abstract

Compared with traditional vacuum preloading, air booster vacuum preloading is more effective at strengthening dredged slurry and improving the consolidation process. Although many engineering practices have shown that the pressurized duration has a significant effect on the reinforcement effect, there is no standard available for determining the pressurized duration. In this study, five dredged slurry samples were tested to examine the effect of different pressurized durations on the consolidation. An extensive monitoring system was used to measure the vacuum pressure, pore water pressure, settlement, and water discharge during the test, while the water content and shear strength were measured after the test. The collected monitoring data were comprehensively analyzed to evaluate the reinforcement effect. The results revealed that the pressurization system can be used to reinforce deep dredged slurry and make the whole soil layer more homogeneous. If the pressurized duration is too short, the dissipation of pore water pressure is too little to achieve the pressurization effect. If the pressurized duration is too long, too much gas will be in the soil and enter the vacuum system, which will significantly reduce the vacuum pressure and thus the reinforcement effect. Based on these findings, the optimal pressurized duration was obtained.     

极值波高与历时联合分布的重现水平分析

使用美国北卡罗来纳州的 FRF 1985—2016 年的极值波高及其持续时间数据,采用最优的 Gumbel-Hougaard copula函数和 Kendall 分布函数构建极值波高和相应历时不同组合的联合概率分布模式,分析各个组合的遭遇概率、“或”重现期、“且”重现期和 Kendall 重现期,以出现最大可能概率的方法推算各组合联合设计值。结果表明：Kendall 重现期所对应的累积频率更准确地代表了特定设计频率下的风险率;重现期分别为 5 年、10 年、20 年、50 年、100 年、200 年推算的 Kendall重现期设计值介于“或”重现期和“且”重现期设计值之间,小于相应的边缘分布设计值;基于 Kendall 重现期的极值波高及其持续时间不同重现期组合推算的结果可为海洋工程构筑物设计与风险管理提供新的选择与参考。     

1957~2016年中国农业界限温度时空变化研究

利用中国830个气象站点1957~2016年地面气象观测资料,采用五日滑动平均法和GIS方法确定了近60 a农业界限温度（0℃、5℃、10℃）的初终日期和持续日数,并比较分析1957~1986年和1987~2016年2个时段的≥0℃、≥5℃和≥10℃农业界限温度的初终日期和持续日数的变化情况。结果表明：与1957~1986年相比,1987~2016年中国农业界限温度（0℃、5℃、10℃）的总体变化规律基本一致,即初日提前、终日推迟、持续日数增加,各地区变化幅度不同,东北、华北和青藏高原地区变化幅度最大。中国各界限温度的终日变化幅度均较小,初日和持续日数变化较大。≥0℃初日在东北北部和青藏高原地区分别提前3~9 d和3~15 d,持续日数在东北和华北部分地区分别增加3~15 d和2~18 d,青藏高原部分地区增加4~16 d;≥5℃初日在东北和华中地区分别提前4~9 d和6~13 d,持续日数在东北、华北部分地区分别增加4~13 d和2~14 d,青藏高原地区增加2~23 d;≥10℃初日在东北和青藏高原地区分别提前2~9 d和2~13 d,持续日数在东北和青藏高原地区变化最为显著,分别增加3~15 d和5~25 d。农业界限温度的初终日期和持续日数变化,使作物生育期延长和种植界线北移。     

Study of indices for drought characterization in KBK districts in Orissa (India)

Drought is a temporary, random and regional climatic phenomenon, originating due to lack of precipitation leading to water deficit and causing economic loss. Success in drought alleviation depends on how well droughts are defined and their severity quantified. A quantitative definition identifies the beginning, end, spatial extent and the severity of drought. Among the available indices, no single index is capable of fully describing all the physical characteristics of drought. Therefore, in most cases it is useful and necessary to consider several indices, examine their sensitivity and accuracy, and investigate for correlation among them. In this study, the geographical information system‐based Spatial and Time Series Information Modeling (SPATSIM) and Daily Water Resources Assessment Modeling (DWRAM) software were used for drought analysis on monthly and daily bases respectively and its spatial distribution in both dry and wet years. SPATSIM utilizes standardized precipitation index (SPI), effective drought index (EDI), deciles index and departure from long‐term mean and median; and DWRAM employs only EDI. The analysis of data from the Kalahandi and Nuapada districts of Orissa (India) revealed that (a) droughts in this region occurred with a frequency of once in every 3 to 4 years, (b) droughts occurred in the year when the ratio of annual rainfall to potential evapotranspiration (Pae/PET) was less than 0·6, (c) EDI better represented the droughts in the area than any other index; (d) all SPI, EDI and annual deviation from the mean showed a similar trend of drought severity. The comparison of all indices and results of analysis led to several useful and pragmatic inferences in understanding the drought attributes of the study area. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

区域供水系统干旱历时特性综合分析

根据区域供水系统中供水水库(群)的蓄水状态及其运行调度策略在满足区域供水目标方面的重要作用,提出了以水库(群)的时段初始蓄水量与时段内来水量之和,以及时段内供水系统的目标需水量作为主要控制参数,以两者的差值正、负来表达供水系统处于非干旱状态和干旱状态的区域干旱鉴别方法。为了多角度地分析干旱和非干旱历时分布、转移概率以及干旱重现期等干旱历时特性以较全面地掌握区域干旱事件特征,针对一具体区域供水系统,运用模拟统计法和概率解析法两种技术手段来研究区域干旱历时特性,同时针对两种方法的计算结果差异,指出了各种方法的特征以及产生差异的原因。     

Earthquake ground motion in Mexico City: An analysis of data recorded at Roma array

We analysed in detail three earthquakes recorded in a small-aperture accelerometric array in Mexico City, using the correlation of the records as a function of time along the accelerogram and frequency. Ground response is strongly conditioned by the fundamental period of the soft soils at the site of the array (T₀). Energy at periods longer than 2T₀ is guided by the crustal structure (with a thickness of 45 km). The wave field at periods between T₀ and 2T₀ also consists of surface waves but guided by the upper 2–3 km of volcanic sediments in central Mexico. For periods smaller than T₀, ground motion is uncorrelated among the stations. Our results indicate that seismic response of Mexico City, including its very long duration, results from deeply guided surface waves (between 2 and 45 km depth) interacting with the very local response of the soft surficial clay layer.