Climate models and hydrological parameter uncertainties in climate change impacts on monthly runoff and daily flow duration curve of a Mediterranean catchment

ABSTRACT

Climate models and hydrological parameter uncertainties were quantified and compared while assessing climate change impacts on monthly runoff and daily flow duration curve (FDC) in a Mediterranean catchment. Simulations of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using an ensemble of behavioural parameter sets derived from the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method were approximated by feed-forward artificial neural networks (FF-NN). Then, outputs of climate models were used as inputs to the FF-NN models. Subsequently, projected changes in runoff and FDC were calculated and their associated uncertainty was partitioned into climate model and hydrological parameter uncertainties. Runoff and daily discharge of the Chiba catchment were expected to decrease in response to drier and warmer climatic conditions in the 2050s. For both hydrological indicators, uncertainty magnitude increased when moving from dry to wet periods. The decomposition of uncertainty demonstrated that climate model uncertainty dominated hydrological parameter uncertainty in wet periods, whereas in dry periods hydrological parametric uncertainty became more important.

Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor S. Kanae     

Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Dealing with uncertainty is key in socio-hydrological analysis. As such, thinking through what uncertainties mean for whom and when is key. This discussion contribution introduces three issues related to defining uncertainties. The first issue deals with the problem of defining uncertainty as a given external reality. The second issue deals with who decides about relevant uncertainties. The third issue deals with the issue whether coupled human-hydrological systems can be seen as existing on their own. Finally, the text provides two examples of hydrological research that try to be explicit about our dealing with multiple (interpretations of) realities.     

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.     

ARTIFICIAL RECHARGE OF THE LONDON BASIN

Abstract

The helium concentrations have been measured in the groundwaters of the Sabarmati basin. Gujarat, and the Jaisalmer district, Rajasthan. The observed helium concentrations show localized anomalies. The magnitude of the excess helium is shown to be approximately inversely proportional to the square of the thickness of the sedimentary strata between the sampled aquifer and the Basement Trap surface in the Sabarmati basin.     

A probabilistic framework to evaluate the uncertainty of design hydrograph: case study of Swannanoa River watershed

ABSTRACT

This study presents a probabilistic framework to evaluate the impact of uncertainty of design rainfall depth and temporal pattern as well as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) on design hydrograph attributes – peak, time to peak, duration and volume, as well as falling and rising limb slopes – using an event-based hydrological model in the Swannanoa River watershed in North Carolina, USA. Of the six hydrograph attributes, falling limb slope is the most sensitive to the aforementioned uncertainties, while duration is the least sensitive. In general, the uncertainty of hydrograph attributes decreases in higher recurrence intervals. Our multivariate analysis revealed that in most of the return periods, AMC is the most important driver for peak, duration and volume, while time to peak and falling limb slope are most influenced by rainfall pattern. In higher return periods, the importance of rainfall depth and pattern increases, while the importance of AMC decreases.     

Predicting salt intrusion into freshwater aquifers resulting from CO2 injection – A study on the influence of conservative assumptions

Brine migration and saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers are among the hazards which may result from injecting CO₂ into deep saline formations. Comprehensive risk assessment should include estimates of the salinization of freshwater aquifers, preferably based on numerical simulation results. A crucial task is to choose an appropriate conceptual model and relevant scenarios. Overly conservative assumptions may lead to estimation of unacceptably high risks, and thus prevent the implementation of a CO₂ storage project unnecessarily. On the other hand, risk assessment should not lead to an underestimation of hazards. This study compares two conceptual model approaches for the numerical simulation of brine-migration scenarios through a vertical fault and salt intrusion into a fresh water aquifer. The first approach calculates salt discharge into freshwater using an immiscible two-phase model with constant salinity in the brine phase. The second approach takes compositional effects into account and considers salinity as a variable parameter in the water phase. A spatial model coupling is introduced to adapt the increased model complexity to the required complexity of the physics. The immiscible two-phase model is applied in the CO₂ storage reservoir and spatially coupled to a single-phase (water) two-component (water, salt) model, where salt mass fraction is a variable. A Dirichlet–Neumann technique is used for the coupling conditions at the interface of the two models. The results show that the predicted salt discharges can vary by orders of magnitude depending on the choice of the model. The implications of the results for risk assessment are discussed.     

Towards hydrological model calibration and validation: simulation of stable water isotopes using the isoWATFLOOD model

Calibration and validation of hydrological models is a challenge, particularly in remote regions that are minimally gauged. This paper develops a novel methodology for large‐scale (>1000 km²) hydrological model calibration and validation using stable water isotopes founded on the rigorous constraints imposed by the need to conserve both water mass and stable isotopes simultaneously. The isoWATFLOOD model is applied to five basins within the Fort Simpson, Northwest Territories region of northern Canada to simulate stream discharge and oxygen‐18 signals over a 3‐year period. The isotopic variation of river discharge, runoff components, and evaporative fractionation are successfully simulated on both a seasonal and continual basis over the watershed domain to demonstrate the application of isotope tracers to regional hydrologic calibration. The intended application of this research is to remote, large‐scale basins, showing promise for improving predictions in minimally gauged basins and climate change research where traditional, rigorous approaches to constraining parameter uncertainty may be impractical. This coupled isotope‐hydrological (i.e. iso‐hydrological) approach to modelling reduces the number of possible parameterizations, resulting in potentially more physically‐based hydrological predictions. isoWATFLOOD provides a tool for water resource managers and utilities to use operationally for water use, allocation, and runoff generation estimations. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cloud computing for integrated stochastic groundwater uncertainty analysis

Abstract

One of the major scientific challenges and societal concerns is to make informed decisions to ensure sustainable groundwater availability when facing deep uncertainties. A major computational requirement associated with this is on-demand computing for risk analysis to support timely decision. This paper presents a scientific modeling service called ‘ModflowOnAzure’ which enables large-scale ensemble runs of groundwater flow models to be easily executed in parallel in the Windows Azure cloud. Several technical issues were addressed, including the conjunctive use of desktop tools in MATLAB to avoid license issues in the cloud, integration of Dropbox with Azure for improved usability and ‘Drop-and-Compute,’ and automated file exchanges between desktop and the cloud. Two scientific use cases are presented in this paper using this service with significant computational speedup. One case is from Arizona, where six plausible alternative conceptual models and a streamflow stochastic model are used to evaluate the impacts of different groundwater pumping scenarios. Another case is from Texas, where a global sensitivity analysis is performed on a regional groundwater availability model. Results of both cases show informed uncertainty analysis results that can be used to assist the groundwater planning and sustainability study.     

Flood-plain mapping: a critical discussion of deterministic and probabilistic approaches

Abstract

Different methodologies for flood-plain mapping are analysed and discussed by comparing deterministic and probabilistic approaches using hydrodynamic numerical solutions. In order to facilitate the critical discussion, state-of-art techniques in the field of flood inundation modelling are applied to a specific test site (River Dee, UK). Specifically, different flood-plain maps are derived for this test site. A first map is built by applying an advanced deterministic approach: use of a fully two-dimensional finite element model (TELEMAC-2D), calibrated against a historical flood extent, to derive a 1-in-100 year flood inundation map. A second map is derived by using a probabilistic approach: use of a simple raster-based inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) to derive an uncertain flood extent map predicting the 1-in-100 year event conditioned on the extent of the 2006 flood. The flood-plain maps are then compared and the advantages and disadvantages of the two different approaches are critically discussed.

Citation Di Baldassarre, G., Schumann, G., Bates, P. D., Freer, J. E. & Beven, K. J. (2010) Flood-plain mapping: a critical discussion of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(3), 364–376.     

One decade of multi-objective calibration approaches in hydrological modelling: a review

Abstract

One decade after the first publications on multi-objective calibration of hydrological models, we summarize the experience gained so far by underlining the key perspectives offered by such approaches to improve parameter identification. After reviewing the fundamentals of vector optimization theory and the algorithmic issues, we link the multi-criteria calibration approach with the concepts of uncertainty and equifinality. Specifically, the multi-criteria framework enables recognition and handling of errors and uncertainties, and detection of prominent behavioural solutions with acceptable trade-offs. Particularly in models of complex parameterization, a multi-objective approach becomes essential for improving the identifiability of parameters and augmenting the information contained in calibration by means of both multi-response measurements and empirical metrics (“soft” data), which account for the hydrological expertise. Based on the literature review, we also provide alternative techniques for dealing with conflicting and non-commeasurable criteria, and hybrid strategies to utilize the information gained towards identifying promising compromise solutions that ensure consistent and reliable calibrations.

Citation Efstratiadis, A. & Koutsoyiannis, D. (2010) One decade of multi-objective calibration approaches in hydrological modelling: a review. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(1), 58–78.