下击暴流的数值模拟研究

下击暴流是危害飞行安全的一种重要天气现象，特别是尺度为１—４ｋｍ的微下击暴流。为了了解下击暴流的发展过程，以及大气环境条件和云－降水微物理结构对下击暴流发生演变的影响，利用我们设计发展的非静力全弹性中尺度－γ模式，以一次发生了下击暴流的大气的温、湿、风实测资料为算例进行了数值模拟研究。计算结果给出了下击暴流发生发展的过程，以及在发展过程中各种物理量的变化，得出一些大气环境条件及水凝物粒子微结构对下击暴流发展的影响机理，有助于台站预报员掌握这种天气现象的出现和演变。     

水环境数学模拟的应用现状及存在问题

水环境中污染物的迁移转化过程模拟和预测是水生态环境健康诊断、预测、预警及控制管理的重要基础。水环境数学模拟已经在国内外有了非常广泛的应用,并且成为国内外学者研究的热点。本文介绍了水环境数学模型的基础研究和应用现状,并提出其发展趋势和国内水质数学模型存在的主要问题。     

Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.     

粒度分布的端元建模分析及检验:以“吉兰泰—河套”盆地西部DK-12钻孔晚第四纪沉积物为例*

端元建模分析能够从复杂的多峰分布特征的沉积物中提取出具有不同沉积动力过程的端元,但是,由于沉积物的粒度分布还受到沉积环境等多种因素的影响,该方法的有效性及获得的端元组分的地质意义有待其他环境代用指标的进一步检验。以位于“吉兰泰—河套”盆地西部磴口次级隆起区的DK-12钻孔晚第四纪沉积物为例,采用BEMMA算法对该钻孔沉积物的粒度资料进行了端元建模分析,并以黏土矿物组合和前人的孢粉组合数据作为检验指标,结合该地区的区域地质背景,对获得的4个端元进行了综合检验分析,认为获得的沉积物粒度端元具有明确的地质意义,其中EM 1为远源粉尘、EM 2为近源的风成沙、EM 3和EM 4为河流冲积沙。     

小区域景观的三维可视化

现实世界的复杂性决定了其在计算机中表达的复杂性,三维模型的构建成为3DGIS中亟待解决的一个核心问题。探讨了三维建模思想以及建模方法,并以ArcGIS和SketchUp交互建模方法为例,论述了三维建模流程以及注意事项,通过模型库的构建,提高了该方法在小区域内景观的三维快速构建效率,所得的模型为3DGIS提供了数据源。实践表明,在有限的经济、技术等条件下,该方法具有较强的可行性和实用性。     

Major and trace element geochemistry of neutral and acidic thermal springs at El Chichón volcano,Mexico: Implications for monitoring of the volcanic activity

Four groups of thermal springs with temperatures from 50 to 80 °C are located on the S–SW–W slopes of El Chichón volcano, a composite dome-tephra edifice, which exploded in 1982 with a 1 km wide, 160 m deep crater left. Very dynamic thermal activity inside the crater (variations in chemistry and migration of pools and fumaroles, drastic changes in the crater lake volume and chemistry) contrasts with the stable behavior of the flank hot springs during the time of observations (1974–2005). All known groups of hot springs are located on the contact of the basement and volcanic edifice, and only on the W–SW–S slopes of the volcano at almost same elevations 600–650 m asl and less than 3 km of direct distance from the crater. Three groups of near-neutral (pH ≈ 6) springs at SW–S slopes have the total thermal water outflow rate higher than 300 l/s and are similar in composition. The fourth and farthest group on the western slope discharges acidic (pH ≈ 2) saline (10 g/kg of Cl) water with a much lower outflow rate (< 10 l/s).     

湖北省铜山口铜(钼)矿床成矿流体水岩反应数值模拟

湖北省铜山口铜(钼)矿床是一典型的夕卡岩 斑岩复合型矿床。通过对其流体包裹体的系统研究,确定了成矿流体的成分及温压条件;结合矿床学的研究,将成矿过程分解为两个平行的成矿阶段,即夕卡岩型矿化阶段和斑岩型矿化阶段。根据Johnson和Reed等人建立的水 岩反应模型,对该矿床的成矿流体与围岩的反应并析出金属沉淀的过程进行了数值模拟计算。结果表明:在斑岩型矿化阶段,成矿流体系统出现等焓减压沸腾过程并沉淀出大量的金属矿物,成矿流体分异为低盐度流体和高盐度流体;在夕卡岩型成矿阶段,沉淀出典型的夕卡岩矿物;在整个成矿过程中,成矿流体的pH值逐渐升高。模拟计算结果与实际地质现象非常吻合,说明所建立的水 岩反应模型可以为理解这一类复合型金属热液矿床的形成机制提供一个新的思路。     

基于GMS鄱阳湖拟建枢纽对地下水影响探讨

针对拟建鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程对地下水影响问题,选择赣江三角洲为代表区,采用资料收集、野外调查、统计分析和数值模拟等方法进行研究。依据地质钻探资料、地下水与河流动态关系、区域数字高程模型,结合鄱阳湖历史形成与演化过程确定研究区边界条件,运用GMS模拟软件建立了研究区地下水三维运动模型。依据推荐的枢纽调度方案,利用数值模型计算枢纽运行后对地下水运动影响的时空变化规律。结果表明:枯水年份影响大,距离河流、坝址近的地方影响大,反之亦然。影响幅度范围0~2m,地下水径流交替因此减弱,丰水年份土壤潜育化面积增加9.3%。     

A sensitivity of squall-line intensity to environmental static stability under various shear and moisture conditions

Squall lines develop in various climate regions having diverse environmental profiles of wind shear, moisture, and temperature. In order to explore the sensitivity of squall lines to these environmental profiles, we have performed an extensive set of numerical simulations under various shear and moisture conditions in midlatitude-continental and tropical–oceanic temperature environments. From the results of the sensitivity simulations and the analyses of the environmental parameters, it is found that the static stability in a convectively unstable layer is of primary importance in determining the strength of squall lines. Under temperature environments having the same static stability, convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitable water content (PWC) well describe the squall-line intensity. Vertical shear also plays an important role in determining the squall-line structure as well as the intensity through the interaction with surface cold pool. The combination of the static stability in a convectively unstable layer, CAPE, and PWC should be examined in diagnosing the intensity of squall lines that develop with an optimal shear for their environment.     

起伏地形下河南省太阳散射辐射的分布式模拟

利用河南省及周边145个气象站1961－2000年常规气象观测资料和河南省1:25万DEM数据,充分考虑起伏地形下太阳散射辐射的天空因素与地面因素后,基于分布式开阔度模型和天文辐射模型,实现了起伏地形下河南省太阳散射辐射的分布式模拟.计算了100m×100 m分辨率下河南省1－12月气候平均太阳散射辐射及多年平均年散射辐射总量的空间分布.结果表明:在充分考虑经验系数的时空分布特征后,模拟精度有了进一步提高.与郑州站的观测资料对比验证表明,模拟精度较高,年平均绝对误差为3.06 MJ·m-2,年平均相对误差为1.67％;局地地形对太阳散射辐射的影响比较明显;通过个例年验证对模型性能和模拟结果进行考察,年平均相对误差不足11％.综上表明模型的时空模拟性能良好.