非线性管土耦合作用下钢悬链式立管触地区敏感性分析

浮体运动和海床土刚度是引起钢悬链式立管(steel catenary riser,简称SCR)管土相互作用的关键因素,将导致SCR触地区的疲劳损伤。以工作水深为1500 m的浮式平台上生产立管SCR为研究对象,基于法向抗力模型和侧向阻力模型建立管土作用模型,在环境载荷和浮体运动作用下,开展SCR与浮式平台的整体分析,研究海床土参数对SCR触地区动态响应和疲劳寿命的敏感性。通过改变海床土的不排水抗剪强度Su0、强度梯度ρ、吸力因子f_suc、吸力衰减参数λ_suc以及再贯入系数λ_rep等,得到不同参数对触地区动力响应、疲劳寿命的影响规律。研究结果表明:①基于软黏土海床,随着不排水抗剪强度Su0的增加,触地区立管疲劳寿命减幅达到33.23%,敏感性最高;②吸力因子f_suc越大,立管疲劳寿命越小且减幅达23.77%,其敏感性较高;③随着再贯入系数λ_rep增大,触地区立管疲劳寿命增幅达到15.48%;④海床抗剪强度梯度ρ和吸力衰减参数λ_suc对立管疲劳寿命影响较小。研究结论能为SCR设计分析及安全服役提供重要参考。     

Study on the assessment of the comprehensive benefits of the utilization of sediment resources in reservoir areas

The utilization of sediment in reservoirs as resources is an efficient way to reduce reservoir sedi-mentation and turn disadvantage into benefit. Based on economic, social and ecological functions of sediment resources, this paper puts forward a two-layer, three-dimensional evaluation index system. It also establishes six direct and indirect indicators with their formulas to calculate the comprehensive benefits of sediment utilization in the Xixiayuan reservoir of the Yellow River with a volume of 2000 m3. The results show that social benefits would be more prominent, with the ecological benefits coming second. This demonstrates that the indirect public value of utilizing the sediment resources in the Yellow River Basin can be far greater than its direct economic value.     

Assessment of spatial transferability of process‐based hydrological model parameters in two neighbouring catchments in the Himalayan Region

Estimating the hydrological regime of ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region is challenging due to a lack of sufficient monitoring stations. In this paper, the spatial transferability of the model parameters of the process‐oriented J2000 hydrological model was investigated in 2 glaciated subcatchments of the Koshi river basin in eastern Nepal. The catchments have a high degree of similarity with respect to their static landscape features. The model was first calibrated (1986–1991) and validated (1992–1997) in the Dudh Koshi subcatchment. The calibrated and validated model parameters were then transferred to the nearby Tamor catchment (2001–2009). Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were carried out for both subcatchments to discover the sensitivity range of the parameters in the two catchments. The model represented the overall hydrograph well in both subcatchments, including baseflow, rising and falling limbs; however, the peak flows were underestimated. The efficiency results according to both Nash–Sutcliffe (ENS) and the coefficient of determination (r²) were above 0.84 in both catchments (1986–1997 in Dudh Koshi and 2001–2009 in Tamor). The ranking of the parameters in respect to their sensitivity matched well for both catchments while taking ENS and log Nash–Sutcliffe (LNS) efficiencies into account. However, there were some differences in sensitivity to ENS and LNS for moderately and less‐sensitive parameters, although the majority (13 out of 16 for ENS and 16 out of 16 for LNS) had a sensitivity response in a similar range. The generalized uncertainty likelihood estimation results suggest that the parameter uncertainty are most of the time within the range and the ensemble mean matches very good (ENS: 0.84) with observed discharge. The results indicate that transfer of the J2000 parameters to a neighbouring catchment in the Himalayan region with similar physiographic landscape characteristics is viable. This indicates the possibility of applying a calibrated process‐based J2000 model to other ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region, which could provide important insights into the hydrological system dynamics and provide much needed information to support water resources planning and management.     

Bioturbation and erosion rates along the soil-hillslope conveyor belt,part 2: Quantification using an analytical solution of the diffusion–advection equation

Particles on soil-mantled hillslopes are subject to downslope transport by erosion processes and vertical mixing by bioturbation. Both are key processes for understanding landscape evolution and soil formation, and affect the functioning of the critical zone. We show here how the depth–age information, derived from feldspar-based single grain post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence (pIRIR), can be used to simultaneously quantify erosion and bioturbation processes along a hillslope. In this study, we propose, for the first time, an analytical solution for the diffusion–advection equation to calculate the diffusivity constant and erosion–deposition rates. We have fitted this model to age–depth data derived from 15 soil samples from four soil profiles along a catena located under natural grassland in the Santa Clotilde Critical Zone Observatory, in the south of Spain. A global sensitivity analysis was used to assess the relative importance of each model parameter in the output. Finally, the posterior probability density functions were calculated to evaluate the uncertainty in the model parameter estimates. The results show that the diffusivity constant at the surface varies from 11.4 to 81.9 mm² a^-1 for the hilltop and hill-base profile, respectively, and between 7.4 and 64.8 mm² a^-1 at 50 cm depth. The uncertainty in the estimation of the erosion–deposition rates was found to be too high to make a reliable estimate, probably because erosion–deposition processes are much slower than bioturbation processes in this environment. This is confirmed by a global sensitivity analysis that shows how the most important parameters controlling the age–depth structure in this environment are the diffusivity constant and regolith depth. Finally, we have found a good agreement between the soil reworking rates proposed by earlier studies, considering only particle age and depth, and the estimated diffusivity constants. The soil reworking rates are effective rates, corrected for the proportion of particles actually participating in the process. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under a high-emissions scenario

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Changes in regional moisture patterns under the impact of climate change are an important focus for science. Based on the five global climate models (GCMs)...     

A comparative analysis of accessibility measures by the two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method

The recent decade has witnessed a new wave of development in the place-based accessibility theory, revolving around the two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method. The 2SFCA method, initially serving to evaluate the spatial inequity of health care services, has been further applied to other urban planning and facility access issues. Among these applications, different distance decay functions have been incorporated in the thread of model development, but their applicability and limitations have not been thoroughly examined. To this end, the paper has employed a place-based accessibility framework to compare the performance of twenty-four 2SFCA models in a comprehensive manner. Two important conclusions are drawn from this analysis: on a small analysis scale (e.g., community level), the catchment size is the most critical model component; on a large analysis scale (e.g., statewide), the distance decay function is of elevated importance. In sum, this comparative analysis provides the theoretical support necessary to the choice of the catchment size and the distance decay function in the 2SFCA method. Justification of model parameters through empirical evidence (e.g., field surveys about local travel activities) and model validation through sensitivity analysis are needed in future 2SFCA applications for various urban planning, service delivery, and spatial equity scenarios.     

中国西北干旱区土地沙漠化敏感性时空格局

土地沙漠化敏感性评估是沙漠化监测的重要内容之一,也是研究如何防止和治理沙漠化的重要课题。本文以中国西北干旱区作为研究区,利用遥感技术和GIS空间分析技术为支撑,通过构建“土壤—地形—水文—气候—植被”沙漠化敏感性综合评价指标体系,并借助空间距离模型计算了沙漠化敏感性指数,进而定量评估2000年、2005年、2010年和2017年西北干旱区土地沙漠化敏感性的时空演变特征,在此基础上引入地理探测器等方法对其主要驱动因素进行了深入分析。研究结果表明：① 地形、土壤、气候、植被和水文等5个方面相互影响,彼此制约,共同构成中国西北干旱区沙漠化敏感性分布和变化的本底条件;② 西北干旱区沙漠化敏感性总体上呈现周边低、内部高的分布特征,低敏感区主要分布在阿尔泰山、天山、昆仑山、阿尔金山和祁连山等地,而高敏感区则主要分布在准噶尔盆地、塔里木盆地和内蒙古高原等大部分地区,包括塔克拉玛干沙漠、巴丹吉林沙漠和腾格里沙漠腹地。沙漠化敏感性的空间分布具有显著的区域性,高敏感区和低敏感区界限分明、分布集中;③ 从时空演变看,2000年以来沙漠化敏感性变化以稳定型占据主导,而整体上敏感性表现为缓慢降低趋势,说明潜在沙漠化区域逐年减少,区域沙漠化治理工作取得了一定成效;④ 西北干旱区的各驱动因素中,土壤及气候起直接作用,是最主要的影响因素,而植被是改变沙漠化敏感性最活跃、最基本的因素。除此之外,地形的分布和水文的变化对沙漠化敏感性起到一定的限制作用,而社会经济因素是影响区域沙漠化敏感性最为快速的因素,且经济发展对促进区域沙漠化敏感性的增长作用有逐渐加强的趋势。从整体来看,中国西北干旱区土地沙漠化得到了有效遏制,沙漠化治理工作取得了积极成效,但在全球气候变化加强和社会经济发展进入新常态的大背景下,中国沙漠化监测评估和治理工作仍然任重而道远。     

两型半潜式平台波浪作用下载荷敏感性研究

为探究半潜式平台在波浪作用下的载荷敏感特性,根据频域计算得到的水动力衍射/辐射结果,将动水压力作为输入项,利用ANSYS软件进行两型半潜式平台对波浪载荷的敏感性分析。以此对比两型平台响应特性,确定危险工况,并为平台整体结构设计提供参考。其中A型平台为柱稳式半潜平台,B型平台以A型平台为母型进行了水动力性能优化,以适用于北海海域作业环境。研究发现:两型平台的应变均在弹性形变范围内;两型平台会在相似位置处出现较大的等效弹性应力和应变分布,但相比于母型平台A,B型平台在立柱与浮体连接处也存在明显的高应力区;各波浪入射角度下,两型平台的入射波浪最危险周期不同,且存在B型平台响应大于A型平台响应的工况,因此基于水动力性能改进的B型平台,结构上可能存在不足。     

海上风电单桩式支撑结构冰激振动及参数敏感性分析

针对渤海湾某风电场的海上固定式风机支撑结构,采用适用于大直径单桩结构的PSI曲线模拟桩土相互作用,并采用SACS软件建立支撑结构的动力分析模型。首先对支撑结构进行模态分析;其次考虑海冰结构的随机振动作用模式,根据适用于渤海湾的随机冰力谱构造随机冰载荷时程曲线,基于半耦合的时域方法,采用SACS软件对支撑结构进行冰激振动分析,输出塔筒顶部加速度、单桩基底剪力及倾覆力矩等响应参数的时程曲线和响应功率谱;最后针对冰厚、冰速和海冰强度等海冰参数对支撑结构的冰激振动进行敏感性分析。研究结果表明,在随机振动模式下,冰载荷及结构动力响应对冰厚和海冰强度较为敏感,在进行冰激振动分析时应合理确定冰厚和海冰强度等参数。     

海洋灾害监控防控系统建设研究——以连江海洋减灾综合示范区为例

文章结合连江海洋减灾综合示范区的总体建设情况,重点分析海洋灾害监控防控系统的构建思路和成果应用,主要包括海洋在线监测系统、海洋灾害信息发布系统、海洋减灾综合应急标志系统和海洋减灾综合视频监控系统,为其他地区开展以沿海重点养殖区为重点保障目标的海洋减灾综合示范区建设提供借鉴和参考。