埕岛油田潮流、风海流预报系统的研制与应用

在埕岛油田潮流、风海流预报系统中应用了整体潮流预报法,结合对本海域潮流实测资料,研究编制成操作简便、功能强大的潮流预报应用软件,实现了对埕岛海域潮流和风海流的即时预报,用于指导油田生产管理,并取得了较好的效果。     

S_q发电机电流的逐日变化和S_q指数

用中国地磁台站的资料,研究了S_q逐日变化的形态学特征,用理论模型计算了磁层环电流、部分环电流、场向电流、磁尾电流、Chapman-Ferraro电流的地磁效应.在消除了这些磁层电流体系的影响之后,得到了电离层潮汐风发电机电流产生的磁场S_q变化.对1973年的资料研究表明,S_q发电机电流的逐日变化主要表现在强度上,即使在磁扰期间,也可以分离出形态稳定的S_q变化.由此提出了一种新的地磁指数——S_q指数,用来描述S_q发电机电流强度的逐日变化.     

集安市净水厂滑坡灾害防治措施

集安市净水厂滑坡灾害位于丘陵区前缘,形成原因为大气降水入渗、风化裂隙水及净水厂渗漏水,改变了上覆松散岩层稳定性。滑坡为土质滑塌、滑动面为基岩面。防治工程措施为排水孔、排水沟、挡土墙。     

太阳爆发过程中的大尺度磁重联电流片:理论和观测

从理论和观测两个方面来介绍和讨论出现在太阳爆发过程中的磁重联电流片及其物理本质和动力学特征。首先介绍在理论研究和理论模型中,磁重联电流片是如何在爆发磁结构当中形成并发展的,对观测研究有什么指导意义。然后介绍观测工作是从哪几个方面对理论模型预测的电流片进行证认和研究的。第三,将介绍观测研究给出了哪些过去所没有能够预期的结果,这些结果对深入研究耀斑一CME电流片以及其中的磁重联过程的理论工作有什么重要的、挑战性的意义。第四,讨论最新的与此有关的理论研究和数值实验。最后,对未来的研究方向和重要课题进行综述和展望。     

基于稀疏AR模型的潮流信号建模与预报

潮流信号处理与预报在很多方面具有非常重要的意义和价值。本文引入信号稀疏表示理论,构建一种稀疏AR模型,寻找各潮流数据间的历史关联性,并进行预报分析。首先由实测潮流信号进行常规AR建模,获得一组过完备稀疏基;其次随机从该过完备稀疏基抽取部分建立欠定方程组,利用稀疏优化算法获得最稀疏的AR系数;多次重复上一步,获得稀疏AR系数的平均以增强稀疏AR模型的稳定性;最后利用这些稀疏AR系数来重构或预测潮流信号。文章针对实测潮流信号,特别是存在多峰值有回流现象的潮流信号,进行了稀疏AR建模与预测的多次实验。实验结果与传统的潮流信号调和预报方法相对比,发现基于稀疏AR模型的潮流预报对于潮流存在多变的现象时,具有明显优越性,从回报结果来看,稀疏AR模型的潮流预报均方差明显小于传统潮流调和分析预报方法。     

渤海夏季环流的高分辨率海浪-潮汐-环流耦合模式研究

The Bohai Sea is a shallow semi-enclosed inner sea with an average depth of 18 m and is located at the west of the northern Yellow Sea. The climatological circulation pattern in summer of the Bohai Sea is studied by using a wave-tide-circulation coupled model. The simulated temperature and the circulation agree with the observation well. The result shows that the circulation pattern of the Bohai Sea is jointly influenced by the tidal residual current, wind and baroclinic current. There exists an obvious density current along the temperature front from the west part of the Liaodong Bay to the offshore area of the Huanghe Estuary. In the Liaodong Bay there exists a clockwise gyre in the area north to the 40°N. While in the area south to the 40°N the circulation shows a two-gyre structure, the flow from the offshore area of the Huanghe Estuary to the Liaodong Bay splits into two branches in the area between 39°N and 40°N. The west branch turns into north-west and forms an anti-clockwise gyre with the south-westward density current off the west of the Liaodong Bay. The east branch turns to the east and forms a clockwise gyre with the flow along the east coast of the Liaodong Bay. The forming mechanism of the circulation is also discussed in this paper.     

基于SODA资料的南海表层风能输入的空间分布与长期趋势研究

海面风不仅是驱动上层海洋运动的主要动力, 其能量也是维持海洋表层流动的主要机械能来源。为了分析南海表层流风能输入的变化, 用SODA(Simple Ocean Data Assimilation)(1901—2010)资料估算了风向南海表层流(表层地转流+表层非地转流)的能量输入。结果表明, 风向南海表层流、表层地转流和表层非地转流输入的能量总体均呈减少趋势, 110年间分别减小了约56%、65%和49%。导致风能输入减小的最主要因素是风应力的减弱(减小了35%)。由于南海受季风系统的控制, 风向表层流及其各成分输入的能量呈现出显著的季节性变化。冬季风能输入最强, 高值区位于南海西部及北部区域, 呈一个显著的“回力镖”状结构。这些结果对深入认识南海环流具有理论意义。     

Water exchange between Tokyo Bay and the Pacific Ocean during winter

Variability in water-exchange time between Tokyo Bay and the Pacific Ocean during winter is investigated based on the results of intensive field observation from November 2000 to March 2001. Water-exchange time between Tokyo Bay and the Pacific Ocean during winter mainly depends on the strength of northerly monsoon, being about 16 days under the weak monsoon and about 12 days under the strong monsoon. Moreover, it becomes longer by about 1 day in spring tide and shorter in neap tide due to the coupling effect of estuarine circulation and vertical mixing. Water-exchange time also varies depending on the open-ocean condition. When the warm water mass approaches from the Pacific Ocean to the mouth of Tokyo Bay through the eastern channel of Sagami Bay, which connects Tokyo Bay and the Pacific Ocean, water-exchange time becomes longer by about 2 days because the warm water mass is blocked in the surface layer at the bay mouth. On the other hand, when the warm water mass approaches to the mouth of Tokyo Bay through the western channel of Sagami Bay, water-exchange time becomes shorter by about 1 day because the warm water mass intrudes into the middle or lower layers of Tokyo Bay. Such different behavior of warm water mass at the mouth of Tokyo Bay is due to the difference in density of approaching warm water masses, that is, the density of the warm water mass through the eastern channel is smaller than that of the warm water mass through the western channel of Sagami Bay.Responsible Editors: Yens Kappenberg     

Impact of the sampling duration on the uncertainty of averaged velocity measurements with acoustic instruments

Average velocity in streams is a key variable for the analysis and modelling of hydrological and hydraulic processes underpinning water resources science and practice. The present study evaluates the impact of the sampling duration on the quality of average velocity measurements acquired with contemporary instruments such as Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters (ADV) an Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP). The evaluation combines considerations on turbulent flows and principles and configurations of acoustic instruments with practical experience in conducting customized analysis for uncertainty analysis purposes. The study sheds new insights on the spatial and temporal variability of the uncertainty in the measurement of average velocities due to variable sampling durations acting in isolation from other sources of uncertainties. Sampling durations of 90 and 150 s are found sufficient for ADV and ADCP, respectively, to obtain reliable average velocities in a flow affected only by natural turbulence and instrument noise. Larger sampling durations are needed for measurements in most of the natural streams exposed to additional sources of data variability.     

基于地闪数据的雷电流幅值累积频率公式探讨

利用2007年和2008年浙江省气象部门闪电定位系统的地闪监测数据,应用Matlab数学软件中的曲线拟合工具箱,以最小二乘法原理对IEEE推荐公式和我国规程推荐公式进行最优化拟合,得出前者拟合效果优于后者的结论。通过分析IEEE推荐公式计算结果与实际值之间的相对误差,发现正闪雷电流幅值累积频率在(1kA,270kA)范围内相对误差绝对值较小,最大不超过10%;而负闪雷电流幅值累积频率在(-1kA,-300kA)范围内相对误差绝对值较大,最大值约为38%。针对上述情况,利用数学软件拟合出负闪(-1kA,-300kA)相对误差曲线的近似函数,修正了原累积频率公式,大幅度减小了其相对误差。其适用范围也从原来的(2kA,200kA)放宽至正闪(1kA,270kA)、负闪(-1kA,-300kA)。