The impact of hydrological changes on travertine deposits related to thermal springs in the Pamukkale area (SW Turkey)

Pamukkale thermal waters (35 °C), exhibiting calcium-bicarbonate-sulfate composition and high carbon dioxide concentration, are of a predominantly meteoric origin. The meteoric fluid, circulating through faults and fractures, is heated by magmatic intrusions at great depth, and ascends from deep reservoirs to the surface. Mixing with relatively cold groundwater in the near surface zone promotes different saturation conditions with respect to calcium carbonate that later precipitates at depth and/or the surface. Dissolution-deposition processes of calcium carbonate both at surface and depth environments may help to reconstruct past climate direction in the field. During wet climate conditions a high-rate of calcium carbonate accumulation would be expected to occur at the surface because thermal fluid would be under-saturated with respect to calcium carbonate at depth because of a relatively higher mixing ratio with cold groundwater. During dry climate conditions the thermal fluid would be super-saturated at depth because of the highly acidic environment. Hydrometeorological studies reveal that the annual precipitation at the Pamukkale hydrothermal field tends to decrease with time. This climatic change in the area was also detected from geological records. While humid climate conditions prevailed during the late Quaternary, the area has recently been affected by arid/semi-arid climate conditions, followed by some episodic transitions. This study has shown how the system has possibly reacted to different climate conditions since antiquity.     

土地利用动态管理系统研发中的若干问题研究

土地利用管理是土地管理的核心内容之一。土地利用动态变化加剧了土地管理的压力，建设具有辅助决策功能的土地利用动态信息系统是大势所趋。本文在阐述建设此系统的重要意义基础上，讨论了系统研发中几个关键问题，即“动态”管理的实现、空间数据和属性数据集成管理和决策的初步实现等。本文提出的解决方法，对于类似土地信息系统的建设具有普遍的指导意义。     

Discrimination between climate and human-induced dryland degradation

In this study we present a technique to discriminate between climate or human-induced dryland degradation, based on evaluations of AVHRR NDVI data and rainfall data. Since dryland areas typically have high inter-annual rainfall variations and rainfall has a dominant role in determining vegetation growth, minor biomass trends imposed by human influences are difficult to verify. By performing many linear regression calculations between different periods of accumulated precipitation and the annual NDVI_max, we identify the rainfall period that is best related to the NDVI_max and by this the proportion of biomass triggered by rainfall. Positive or negative deviations in biomass from this relationship, expressed in the residuals, are interpreted as human-induced. We discuss several approaches that use either a temporally fixed NDVI peaking time or an absolute one, a best mean rainfall period for the entire drylands or the best rainfall period for each individual pixel. Advantages and disadvantages of either approach or one of its combinations for discriminating between climate and human-induced degradation are discussed. Depending on the particular land-use either method has advantages. To locate areas with a high likelihood of human-induced degradation we therefore recommend combining results from each approach.     

Karst database development in Minnesota: design and data assembly

The Karst Feature Database (KFD) of Minnesota is a relational GIS-based Database Management System (DBMS). Previous karst feature datasets used inconsistent attributes to describe karst features in different areas of Minnesota. Existing metadata were modified and standardized to represent a comprehensive metadata for all the karst features in Minnesota. Microsoft Access 2000 and ArcView 3.2 were used to develop this working database. Existing county and sub-county karst feature datasets have been assembled into the KFD, which is capable of visualizing and analyzing the entire data set. By November 17 2002, 11,682 karst features were stored in the KFD of Minnesota. Data tables are stored in a Microsoft Access 2000 DBMS and linked to corresponding ArcView applications. The current KFD of Minnesota has been moved from a Windows NT server to a Windows 2000 Citrix server accessible to researchers and planners through networked interfaces.     

Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

几种再分析地表气温资料在中国区域的适用性评估

应用台站观测资料对ERA-40、NCEP/NCAR、NCEP/DOE和JRA-25等几种再分析地表(2m)气温资料在中国不同区域、不同年代和季节的气候均值、年际变化和变率特征及其气候趋势等所反映出来的适用性问题进行了系统评估.结果表明,几种再分析产品在全国大多数地区的气候变化研究中都具有一定的合理性,特别是1979年以后的资料可靠性更高一些.但相比而言,它们在冬季的可信度一般要高于夏季,东部地区的可信度一般要高于西部地区;ERA-40和JRA-25再分析产品的适用性要高于NCEP/NCAR和NCEP/DOE再分析产品;其中,JRA-25在均值、年际变化和变率特征的描述上具有更高的可靠性,而ERA-40在长期气候变化趋势(44年)的描述上则要明显优于NCEP/NCAR再分析产品.     

两种不同减排情景下21世纪气候变化的数值模拟

利用国家气候中心最新发展的气候系统模式BCC-CSM1.0模拟了相对于B1排放情景,两种不同减排情景(De90和De07,表示按照B1情景排放到2012年,之后线性递减,至2050年时CO_2排放水平分别达到1990和2007年排放水平一半的情景)对全球和中国区域气候变化的影响.结果表明:两种减排情景下模式模拟的全球平均地表气温在21世纪40年代以后明显低于Bl情景,比减排情景浓度低于B1的时间延迟了20年左右;尽管De90减排情景在2050年所达到的稳定排放水平低于De07情景,但De90情景下的全球增温在2070年以后才一致低于De07情景,这种滞后町能与耦合系统(主要足海洋)的惯性有关;至21世纪末,De90和De07情景下的全球增温幅度分别比B1情景降低了0.4和0.2℃;从全球分布来看,B1情景下21世纪后30年的增温幅度在北半球高纬度和极地地区最大,减排情景能够显著减少这些地区的增温幅度,减排程度越大,则减少越多;在中国区域,B1情景下21世纪末平均增温比全球平均高约1.2℃,减排情景De90和De07分别比B1情景降低了0.4和0.3℃,中国北方地区增温幅度高于南方及沿海地区,减排情景能够显著减小中国西部地区的增温幅度;B1情景下21世纪后30年伞球增温在冬季最高,De90和De07情景分别能够降低各个季节全球升温幅度的17%和10%左右.     

地磁场与气候变化关系的新探索

对地磁场与气候变化的统计研究早已表明，二者有很好的相关关系。本文的目的是对它们的关系给出一种可能的物理解释。利用近600年的地磁场模型资料和全球平均温度序列分析了两者变化的关系，发现它们有很好的对应，且地磁场变化超前于全球气温变化。从地磁场的变化来看，21世纪初全球变暖的趋势应该减缓。文中对地表浅层热场（地热带、火山和地温场）的分布特征与地球内部软流圈－岩石圈边界上焦耳热场的分布特征进行了对比分析。结果表明，地表浅层热场与地球深层焦耳热的分布有很好的对应关系，这可能暗示地表浅层热场是地球深层焦耳热的反映，地磁场通过焦耳热的不断释旋影响气候变化。