江苏盐城8.17雷雨大风天气过程雷达回波特征分析

本文分析了2005年8月17日江苏盐城地区的一次雷雨大风天气过程(简作8.17雷雨大风)的雷达回波特征。分析表明:贝湖东侧有较强的冷涡,高空槽前有西南急流存在,低层有冷锋锋区南压,本地受减弱缓慢南撤的副热带高压控制,850 hPa为暖湿气流控制;K指数、SI指数和θse都表明有较强的不稳定天气产生;在雷达回波特征上,具有强冷锋带状回波特征;风场上有明显的辐合;液态含水量值和一小时累积降水量有较好的指示作用。切变线和辐合区的存在是强回波得以维持和发展的主要原因。冷空气的入侵,冷暖空气交汇,是强对流天气爆发的直接原因。及时利用新一代天气雷达信息,进行预警信号的发布工作,取得了非常好的效果,并得到社会公众的认可。     

花粉浓度等级划分探讨

随着环境气象服务的拓展,开展花粉预报的省市地区逐年增加,但花粉预报等级在国内尚无统一标准,影响服务效果。为了使花粉浓度预报客观化规范化,根据全国29个省市花粉调查数据,按华北、东北、华东等七大区域进行了花粉季节变化规律分析。利用天津市2001—2005年、武汉市1994—1995年花粉观测资料和同期花粉过敏患者病例,进行了花粉浓度与发病率的相关分析,依据不同种类植物花粉致敏性的强弱,分别按木本植物和草本植物进行了花粉浓度等级划分,共分为低、较低、中等、较高、高5个级别。结果表明花粉浓度与发病率等级有较好的一致性。虽然用花粉浓度的高低不能精确地表示发病率的高低,但基本可以表征花粉症的发病趋势。此等级标准在实际应用中既方便而且又非常有实际意义。     

一次远距离台风暴雨过程的熵流指数演变

应用耗散结构理论,结合河南省一次远距离台风暴雨过程,分析了大气排熵指数、边界层上部广义相当位温及广义相当位温平流等三个熵流指数与暴雨的发生和落区的关系,得到:大气排熵指数由高值向低值的演变有利于对流的发展,从而导致对流暴雨形成;暴雨落在大气排熵指数负值中心或负值轴线附近区域;远距离台风暴雨产生前,有高熵空气在边界层上部聚集,边界层高熵中心往往与暴雨落区对应;边界层上部高熵平流的移向往往预示了强降水的未来移向。     

1840年以来长江大洪水演变与气候变化关系初探

长江洪水灾害是我国频率高、为患严重的自然灾害之一.本文依据可靠资料,选择1840年至2000年间32次大洪水记录,探讨其演变与气候变化的关系.认知1910s前的19世纪冷期出现大洪水13次(包括1870年的极值大洪水事件)频率为1.9次／10a.1921-2000年间出现了大洪水19次,频率为2.4次／10a.20世纪暖期又分出两个变暖时段,前一变暖时段的峰值期1920s-1940s出现大洪水9次,包含1931年全流域大洪水.后一变暖时段,即1980s与1990s出现大洪水8次.实测记录到的最大洪水1954年位于前一变暖时段结束阶段.1990s是全球,也是我国近百年中最暖年代,受东南季风影响大的中下游地区夏季降水量是近百年最多的,大暴雨频率也是有较多记录的40年来最高的.以此出现了10年5次大洪水高频率现象,包含1998年全流域型大洪水,表明了全球变暖的显著影响.也指示30-40年问周期性振荡中多雨年代.如此可预期21世纪初期降水会有小幅度下降与大洪水频率在短期内降低的可能性.长江上游受西南季风影响较大,19世纪下半期与20世纪上半期为多降水期,大洪水频率较高.20世纪下半期为少降水期,大洪水频率较低.关于气候变化研究有待深入,前景不易预估.     

结合Landsat ETM与实测光谱估测太湖叶绿素及悬浮物含量

实地测试太湖水体的反射光谱,实验室分析水样,运用相关分析法探求叶绿素、悬浮物的光谱特征波段,估测叶绿素和悬浮物含量;对比LandsatETM波段,运用不同的函数曲线对相应的波段组合进行回归拟合,建立相应的估测模型,选取精度最好的两个分别对太湖的叶绿素和悬浮物含量进行估测.结果表明:(1)对多光谱遥感而言,LandsatTM/ETM是定量获取叶绿素和悬浮物的较好的数据源,但不是最适合的数据源;(2)通过ETM3与叶绿素建立一定的函数关系来估测叶绿素含量具有较高的精度,其中利用算术组合ETM3/ETM1估测叶绿素的精度最高;(3)ETM4与悬浮物具有较高的相关度,其中利用算术组合ETM4/ETM1估测悬浮物含量的精度最高;(4)LandsatETM卫星影像中,不同尺寸的像元窗口影响水质参数的估测精度;对叶绿素估测而青,7×7或者5×5窗口比较适合,对悬浮物估测而言,一般不超过3×3.     

统筹黑龙江省土地利用分区与战略对策研究

采用文献资料法、统计分析法,基于1996年黑龙江省以地形、地貌自然条件为标准分区的土地利用现状详查结果,分析2004年末黑龙江省各地市的土地利用状况、土地资源分布的地域差异及社会经济发展情况。按照国家统筹区域发展战略决策和黑龙江省社会经济发展战略定位的要求,选取2004年末黑龙江省各地市主要用地类型面积比和地均社会经济产值、人口密度等11个指标,利用SPSS11.5的层次聚类计算并结合定性分析,将黑龙江省分为七大土地利用区,提出土地利用方向、战略对策与管制措施。     

Statistical Evidence for Asymmetry in ENSO–IOD Interactions

The interaction between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has been noted in many previous studies. However, the interaction is often presumed to exist in a robust manner. This paper questions this assumption and looks for statistical evidence for the robust existence of the ENSO–IOD interaction rather than chance co-occurrences. Consistent definitions of ENSO and IOD events were developed so that ENSO and IOD events identified are comparable in nature, strength, persistence, and time of occurrence during the year, relative to their natural variability. We applied a combinatorial probability test to the probability tables of ENSO and IOD events to test for robustness of our results and those computed from two published works. Our findings show that there is an asymmetry in the interaction between ENSO and IOD. The interaction between El Niño (EN) and the positive and negative phases of the IOD (pIOD and nIOD, respectively) is more robust, enhancing the EN–pIOD co-occurrence and suppressing the EN–nIOD co-occurrence. On the other hand, the interaction between La Niña (LN) and either phase of the IOD cannot be said to exist with the same robustness; the interaction suppresses LN–pIOD co-occurrence, but the occurrence of LN–nIOD might be coincidental. Further research is needed to determine the cause and mechanisms for the asymmetry in the interaction between LN and pIOD/nIOD.     

一次久旱转暴雨天气过程诊断分析

利用各种实测和计算的气象资料,对陕西省商洛地区2000年6月1～3日出现历史罕见的久旱转暴雨过程进行了详细的分析,结果表明：这次久旱转暴雨过程既与东亚大槽减弱,西太平洋副热带高压增强西伸北抬,西太平洋副热带高压外围的“SW”气流增强等大形势有关,也与低空急流、切变线和不稳定层结的发展等有关,天气转变时各物理量场的变化特征也较明显。暴雨产生在低层高能舌、水汽辐合中心,以及低层辐合高层辐散的上升气流区内。     

Distribution of organic carbon in sediments and its influences on adjacent sea area in the turbidity maximum of Changjiang Estuary in China

Distributions and sources of total organic carbon （TOC）in seabed sediments and their implications for hydrodynamics are analyzed, in the turbidity maximum of the Changjiang Estuary. Ecology ecoenvironmental effects of estuary water on the continuously increasing terrigenous organic carbon from the Changjiang River are also explored through variations of organic carbon content and water quality indicators. Results show that, hydrodynamics exert important influences on distributions of organic carbon in the tur- bidity maximum of Changjiang Estuary. For their redistribution effect of terrigenous organic carbon within the moving layer in the whole region, variations from land to sea are not indicated by surficial and vertical average values of TOC and total nitrogen （TN） contents in core sediment, as well as organic stable carbon isotopes in surface sediments. However, on the long-time scale, the trend of terrigenous organic carbon decreasing from land to sea is still displayed by variations of stable carbon isotopic average values becoming heavier from land to sea. Previous studies have shown that high content of Chl a cannot appear in the Changjiang Estuary in despite of adequate nourishment supply, because photosynthesis of phytoplankton is constrained by high suspended sediment concentration（SSC）. However, an area with a high content of Chl a occurs, which may be caused by resuspended benthic algae with bottom fine grain-size sediments. Tremendous pressures are imposed on the environment of Changjiang Estuary, because of uhrophication trends and special hydrodynamics. Phytoplankton bloom area tends to extend from the outer sea to the mouth of Changjiang River.     

Factors affecting marine debris deposition at French Frigate Shoals, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Marine National Monument, 1990-2006

Data on the amount and type of small debris items deposited on the beaches of the Hawaiian Islands National Wildlife Refuge Tern Island station, French Frigate Shoals were collected over 16 years. We calculated deposition rates and investigated the relationship among deposition and year, season, El Ni?o and La Ni?a events from 1990 to 2006. In total 52,442 debris items were collected with plastic comprising 71% of all items collected. Annual debris deposition varied significantly (range 1116-5195 items) but was not influenced by season. Debris deposition was significantly greater during El Ni?o events as compared to La Ni?a events. Although often deduced to influence floating marine pollution, this study provides the first quantitative evidence of the influence of El Ni?o/La Ni?a cycles on marine debris deposition.