基于相关分析和自适应遗传算法的盐渍化建模变量和参数优选

机器学习结合遥感等其他数据反演土壤盐分含量（Soil Salt Content, SSC）较少关注对模型精度影响较大的建模特征变量和模型参数的优选。本文基于自适应遗传算法（Adaptive Genetic Algorithm, AGA）同步优选建模特征变量和模型参数的支持向量回归（Support Vector Regression, SVR）算法反演三工河流域2016年SSC,并分析其在不同土地利用类型的分布特征。建模特征变量和模型参数的同步优选及实验设计如下：首先基于Landsat 8 OLI和SRTM高程数据提取7类共40个盐渍化相关因子,经相关分析初步筛选出候选特征变量,分别代入AGA、遗传算法（Genetic Algorithm, GA）和格网搜索算法（Grid Search, GS）同步优选SVR的建模特征变量和模型参数,并建立盐渍化监测模型（AGA-SVR、GA-SVR、GS-SVR）。结果表明：① AGA-SVR精度最优,GA-SVR次之,GS-SVR最差,相较于GS-SVR,AGA-SVR的R²/RMSE提高了44.65%;② 三工河流域非、轻度、中度、重度盐渍地和盐土的面积占比分别为42.83%、11.02%、15.88%、9.22%、21.05%;③ 草地和未利用地主要以非盐渍地和盐土为主,耕地和林地中非盐渍地分布比例均为最大;不同土地利用类型的SSC均值和标准差均呈现未利用地>草地>耕地>林地的规律。本研究的建模特征变量和模型参数的优选方法可在一定程度上提高盐渍化监测的精度。关键词：盐渍化;遗传算法;机器学习;特征优选;参数优化;土壤盐分含量;土地利用;相关分析     

渤海南部海域年极值波浪和设计波浪的特征研究

本文用统计计算和后报方法，获得了本海域不同海区多年年极值波高（Ｈ１／１０）资料。用Ｐ－Ⅲ型和短期测波资料频率分析方法，估算了各海区的设计波高，并依据文献［３］计算出对应的平均周期。用Ｋｏｌｍｏｇｏｒｏｆｆ适合度方法检验所得的结果表明，依Ｐ－Ⅲ型方法拟配的理论频率曲线与经验点十分吻合，从而确定了本海域不同海区最佳的设计波浪。分析本海域年极值波浪的基本特征表明，本海域除了渤海湾北部海区以外，主浪向一般为ＮＮＥ向，渤海海峡区的年极值波高和设计波高均为最大，而向莱州湾及渤海湾沿岸海区逐渐减小；在沿岸海区，由龙口至黄河口一带的极值波高较大。     

GPS变形监测动态数据处理中卡尔曼滤波的应用

介绍了卡尔曼滤波的基本原理,针对常规GPS变形监测数据处理中存在着不连续、非实时的缺点,结合卡尔曼滤波的特点,运用三峡实测数据对GPS变形监测动态数据处理中卡尔曼滤波的应用进行研究。并采用各点点位位移速度图对所建立的函数模型进行验证,同时对状态方程的建立及初始值的选取进行分析总结。     

A SPATIALLY-VARYING PARAMETER MODEL OF AFDC PARTICIPATION: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS USING THE EXPANSION METHOD*

Spatial variation in the importance of determinants of participation in the Aid to Families with Dependent Children program (AFDC) is investigated for the U.S. Casetti's Expansion Method is applied to the two-dimensional space domain by making the model's parameters a function of state x–y centroids. The spatially-varying parameter model suggests that the black population's association with participation is lowest in the Southeast and Northwest and greatest in the Southwest and Northeast.     

JONSWAP谱和N谱的几个对应特征量间的关系

研究了风浪频谱ＪＯＮＳＷＡＰ谱的峰度因子γ、尖度因子Ｐｊ和Ｎ谱尖度因子ＰＮ，参变量ｐ，ｑ间的关系；并在此关系上给出了由这两种谱计算的几个对应参量间的关系，在使用不同的谱形进行特征量的计算时，应注意不同频谱间的成长因子致性，以免引起计算结果的错误。     

汶川震区典型小流域泥石流发育特征及危险性

银洞子泥石流沟是典型的地震区小流域泥石流沟,是汶川地震和震后强降雨共同作用的结果,从2009年雨季开始到2013年雨季结束共发生14次泥石流事件。研究银洞子沟泥石流的演化过程对进一步认识震区泥石流的长期活动性、危险性具有重要意义。本文通过现场调查、采样测试、历史泥石流事件资料分析,揭示了该泥石流沟的物源特征、激发条件的变化,计算了泥石流密度、流速等相关参数;最后依据现存物源动储量评估了该泥石流沟潜在危险性,提出了相应的防灾减灾对策,能够为地震区泥石流防灾减灾工作提供参考。结果表明：（1）震后初期,银洞子泥石流暴发频率达到3.5次年-1,泥石流容重1.5～1.6tm-3,说明银洞子沟是一条由地震活动触发的高频稀性泥石流沟。（2）经过震后7a的流水侵蚀,银洞子沟物源总量明显减少12.92104m3,但物源动储量减少不明显,导致泥石流危险性居高不下;物源中小于10mm的细颗粒含量由地震初期的27.04%衰减到了18.22%,说明该沟未来泥石流事件仍以稀性泥石流为主。（3）短历时强降雨是银洞子沟泥石流的主要激发方式,当雨量过程超过8h,银洞子泥石流沟的激发暴雨强度为11.53mmh-1时,泥石流危险性较高;在100年一遇暴雨条件下流速接近3.8ms-1,一次冲出量可达8.64104m3。目前该泥石流仍为高度危险性泥石流沟。     

Sediment movement under unidirectional flows: an assessment of empirical threshold curves

A selection of threshold data sets from previous investigations is used to re-examine, selectively, some of the empirical curves that are most commonly used for the prediction of sediment threshold. Simple analytical formulae are derived describing single line curves for mean threshold values and envelopes for the initial movement of discrete particles and the commencement of mass sediment transport phases of the critical condition.The complexity of factors governing the prevailing conditions at threshold, together with the randomness of events, limits deterministic solutions; however, the curves provide an approach that can be used readily in practical applications. In contrast, the envelope presentation is more of a stochastic approach to the definition of threshold. It recognises that there is no definitive threshold condition under which a particular particle size can be displaced, but rather that a range of threshold values exist.The empirical threshold relationships were derived on the basis of a relatively large amount of data. However, the sources utilised have interpreted the ‘critical condition’ in various ways, implying that the formulae must be treated with caution in applications.     

Simple formulas for the dynamic stiffness of pile groups

Simple formulas are derived for the dynamic stiffness of pile group foundations subjected to horizontal and rocking dynamic loads. The formulations are based on the construction of a general model of impedance matrices as the condensation of matrices of mass, damping, and stiffness, and on the identification of the values of these matrices on an extensive database of numerical experiments computed using coupled finite element–boundary element models. The formulations obtained can be readily used for the design of both floating piles on homogeneous half‐space and end‐bearing piles and are applicable for a wide range of mechanical and geometrical parameters of the soil and piles, in particular for large pile groups. For the seismic design of a building, the use of the simple formulas rather than a full computational model is shown to induce little error on the evaluation of the response spectra and time histories. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

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