中国大陆的特征地震活动及其中一长期预测研究（一）

中国大陆不同地点２４个特征地震轮回的震级一时间序列分析表明：在一个完整轮回中，相继特征地震事件ｉ和ｊ之间时段的前１／２极少有破坏性地震发生；而在轮回的后１／２，大多数情况下至少有一次中－强地震发生；其中，中一强地震发生在轮回最后１／３时段的约占５４％。称这种地震为“填隙式中强震”（事件ｆ），其发生可能标志着当地自从上一次特征地震后，应变已重新积累到达距下一次特征地震极限应变不远的背景，故对于发生在轮回末尾的特征事件ｊ来说，具有作为中一长期“前兆”的意义。有可能识别出的首次填隙式中强震（事件ｆ１），其强度通常比同一轮回开始的特征事件ｉ小１—２个震级单位，但明显大于当地背景地震活动强度，并发生在与事件ｉ和ｊ相同的空间位置。文中初步建立起中国大陆完整特征地震活动轮回的震级－时间序列模式（ｉ－ｆ－ｊ模式），它将作为本研究第二部分中进一步发展特征地震中－长期预测方法的基础。     

走滑断裂的枢纽运动是形成特征地震的一种机制

本文通过特征地震特点与枢纽运动特征的对比分析,得出走滑断裂的枢纽运动是形成特征地震的一种机制,断裂的枢纽轴部是特征地震发生的位置。研究结果表明,富蕴、海原、炉霍和郯城地震断裂皆属特征地震断裂     

Response of Freezing/Thawing Indexes to the Wetting Trend under Warming Climate Conditions over the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2010: A Numerical Simulation

Since the 1990s, the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau(QTP) has experienced a strikingly warming and wetter climate that alters the thermal and hydrological properties of frozen ground. A positive correlation between the warming and thermal degradation in permafrost or seasonally frozen ground(SFG) has long been recognized. Still, a predictive relationship between historical wetting under warming climate conditions and frozen ground has not yet been well demonstrated,despite the expectation that it will b...     

周口市夏季暴雨特征及其预报

利用1970～2000年31年历史天气图资料，分析了周口市夏季暴雨的基本特征和主要天气形势。采用统计分型，分别找出低槽型、切变线型、台风倒槽型暴雨的24h预报指标。     

西昆仑及邻区早-中二叠世构造-岩相古地理特征

通过大量野外观察、分析测试和综合研究,结合覆盖全区 1:25万区域地质调查资料及其他前人工作成果,研究了西昆仑及邻区早-中二叠世构造-岩相古地理特征,并探讨了其形成机制。研究表明:西昆仑及邻区早-中二叠世发育典型的沟弧盆系统,自北向南依次发育塔里木陆块、西昆北弧后裂谷盆地、西昆中岩浆弧、西昆南增生楔、玉龙塔格-巴颜喀拉洋盆及甜水海地块。陆相、海陆过渡相、滨浅海相、半深-深海相均有发育,岩相反映的纵向序列表现为海进-海退的旋回性变化,岩浆活动强烈,构造-古地理环境复杂。早-中二叠世是玉龙塔格-巴颜喀拉洋盆扩张最为剧烈且规模为最大时期,主体处于伸展构造背景。中二叠世晚期强烈的华力西构造运动使古板块间的相对运动加剧,玉龙塔格-巴颜喀拉洋盆大洋岩石圈板块向北强烈俯冲,西昆北弧后裂谷盆地形成。早-中二叠世为研究区地球动力学机制从强烈扩张到强烈汇聚的转折时期,加强其构造-岩相古地理特征的研究对建立该区地层序列、探讨其地质演化历史以及指导找矿工作等均具有重要意义。     

黄土高原地貌形态图谱三维符号指标体系与应用

长期以来,地貌学界和制图学界一般是采用文字、地图和图像等方式来描述黄土高原独特的地貌形态,故往往不够形象,缺乏系统性。采用地学信息图谱和三维可视化的方法,对挖掘揭示黄土高原地貌形态特征规律是一个有效的方法。黄土高原地貌形态图谱三维符号的指标体系,是将地貌学家和制图学家对黄土高原正负地貌类型的认知结果经过系统化、标准化和科学化的归纳和提炼,从中提取出的描述黄土高原地貌三维特征的参数集合。既是对黄土高原地貌形态图谱三维立体特征的充分概括,又是三维形式建模表达的参考和依据。根据黄土高原地貌类型的分类和侵蚀特征规律,该体系分为正地貌形态指标体系、负地貌形态指标体系和坡度一侵蚀特征谱系描述指标,采用定性和定量相结合的方法来制定指标体系的具体参数。最后通过实例来验证指标体系在构造三维符号时的应用。细致精确的描述单个地貌类型的三维形态,将有助于对黄土高原地貌特征的认识和研究,为水土保持和生态环境建设提供帮助,同时也为其他地貌类型的信息图谱研究提供借鉴。     

A change detection algorithm for terrain surface moisture mapping based on multi‐year passive microwave remote sensing (Examples of SSM/I and TMI Channels)

As an indication of the surface polarized emission, a polarization index (PI) of microwave radiance from the terrain surface (half‐space of canopy‐soil land) is derived from the radiative transfer model. This PI separates the radiance effects of the canopy‐soil moisture and interference from surface roughness and atmosphere, and is suitable to describe the change of terrain surface moisture, especially for extreme drought or flood conditions. As an example, the statistics of the monthly average < PI > from 6 years' data of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) SSM/I observations at the lowest frequency 19·35 GHz channel as available are applied for the demonstration of the surface moisture status over a large and heterogeneous territory such as China. The deviation of the PI data at the same month from the average < PI > , i.e. Δ_nPI(≡(PI? < PI>)/ < PI>), gives prominence to focusing moisture variation of terrain surface, and its anomaly shows possible drought or flood occurrence in extreme conditions. The Δ_nPI mapping is validated by the typical examples of the drought in China's Shanxi area in May 2001 and the flood around China's Yangtze River in August 1998, respectively. Our approach is recommended for lower frequency channels to minimize the influence from vegetation canopy for future applications (such as the channels of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer [AMSR‐E] launched in May 2002 and microwave imaging radiometer of China's Fengyun satellite series). When the monthly < PI > and the ground truth of average volumetric moisture < m_v > of the region are correctly evaluated, it is tractable to retrieve the soil land surface moisture by using the PI data at the same month and the same region without much knowledge of surface roughness, vegetation canopy and other factors. As an example, the retrieval of m_v is favourably tested by using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Tropical Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysing the New Saturnian Rings, R/2004 S1 and R/2004 S2

The Cassini-Huygens arrival into the Saturnian system brought a large amount of data about the satellites and rings. Two diffuse rings were found in the region between the A ring and Prometheus. R/2004 S1 is coorbital to Atlas and R/2004 S2 is close to Prometheus. In this work we analysed the closest approach between Prometheus and both rings. As a result we found that the satellite removes particles from R/2004 S2 ring. Long-term numerical simulations showed that some particles can cross the F ring region . The well known region of the F ring, where small satellites are present and particles are being taking from the ring, gains a new insight with the presence of particles from R/2004 S2 ring. The computation of the Lyapunov Characteristic Exponent reveled that the R/2004 S2 ring lies in a chaotic region while R/2004 S1 ring and Atlas are in a stable region. Atlas is responsible for the formation of three regimes in the R/2004 S1 ring, as expected for a satellite embedded in a ring.     

新疆阿勒泰地区强降雪灾害风险研究

强降雪是阿勒泰地区常见的灾害性天气之一,基于1961-2013年11月至次年3月该地区7个气象观测站逐日降雪量和积雪深度资料,定义了强降雪特征量,运用信息扩散理论等方法研究了该地区强降雪特征量的异常特征及风险区划。结果表明,阿勒泰地区2009年冬季雪灾为全区型、2010年为西部型异常雪灾年。强降雪频次异常偏高年,福海和青河出现1a、其它各县市出现了2-3a;强降雪量异常偏多年,地区北部和东部各县市出现1a,西部和南部各县出现2a。阿勒泰地区各县市强降雪风险分析结果表明,地区强降雪高风险区在阿勒泰市以及富蕴县,青河县为中风险区,哈巴河县、吉木乃县低风险区,布尔津县和福海县为极端低风险区。     

广东惠东县境内榄李种群的分布及保育策略

广东惠东县沿海真红树植物榄李生境存留面积13.85 hm2,分布于3个地点。其群落内共录得红树林植物7科9属9种,群落的整体物种多样性指数为0.956~1.565,均匀度指数为0.870~0.934,生境沉积物缺乏典型红树林沉积物的特性。惠东县的平海——黄埠榄李种群可确定为欧亚大陆分布最北缘的种群,针对该种群面临的环境威胁,提出了种群保育策略和措施。