绿洲演化与自然和人为因素的关系初探——以克里雅河下游地区为例

以位于塔里木盆地的克里雅河下游地区绿洲为例 ,论述了自然环境要素演变及人类活动对绿洲发育的重要作用。克里雅河下游地区的现代绿洲包括沿河岸分布的带状绿色走廊和河流终端干三角洲上的扇形牧业绿洲。依据对河流沉积物及古河道分析得出的结论是 ,在末次冰期晚期时 ,由于来自昆仑山的大量消融水的出现 ,克里雅河的绿色走廊横穿塔克拉玛干沙漠。类似的情况在距今约2 0 0 0年和小冰期时都出现过。这种大的变化是自然环境演变的结果。但是 ,近百年来特别是近 5 0年克里雅河下游牧业绿洲的严重退化是中游地区集中发展农业绿洲而增加引水量及下游地区过度砍伐所造成的。     

断层旋性与地震危险性

文中以“平行同旋走滑断层减震”的观点论证了兰州、北京、昆明这些位于强震活动区的大城市今后百年内不会发生 6 .5级以上地震。以“平行异旋走滑断层加震”的观点解释了西南棱形块体北边界和南边界在发生大震方面相互促进的现象。对于由构造分段求震级来说 ,在遇到不同的横交断层作为分段点时 ,还需考虑将来发震时始破裂点的位置以及发震断层的旋性 ,不然就会造成对震级估计不足 ,继而成为抗震建设的潜在不安全因素。在主震后为了预报余震的强度 ,可应用物理学中的科里奥利力理论 ,应用时必须知道断层类型和旋性。对于走滑断层来说 ,左旋余震弱 ,右旋余震强。例如 1997年藏北玛尼 7.5级地震 ,余震仅为 5 .3级 ,震级偏小 ,因主震为左旋的缘故 ;1976年唐山 7.8级地震 ,余震可达 7.1级 ,因主震是右旋。对于逆断层来说 ,上盘错动方向在当地子午面左侧者余震强度大 ,在右侧者余震强度弱。据此讨论了 1999年台湾南投 7.6级大震余震强度达 7.1级是因为主震为逆断层 ,上盘向西错动。     

榛子林滑坡动态与主要影响因素的相关性分析

在阐述榛子林滑坡基本特征的基础上，研究分析滑坡动态与后缘弃渣加载、大气降雨、生活排水等主要影响因素的相关性及滑坡复活变形的原因，为滑坡机制分析和优化整治措施提供依据。     

兴海6．6级地震灾害调查与损失评估

2000年9月12日青海省兴海县发生6．6级地震，青海省地震局为本次地震进行了地震灾害调查和损失评估。     

A discussion on the application of b-value to the prediction of seismic tendency

It has been recognized for a long time that the b-value in the Gutenberg-Richters fre-quency-magnitude relation (Gutenberg, Richter, 1954) tends to decrease before some of the earth-quakes (LI, et al, 1979, and the references therein). Since the 1980s, study on b-value has caused much attention among seismologists and physicists when b-value was related to the fractal dimen-sion of an earthquake fault (Aki, 1981; King, 1983) and/or the scaling constant in the model of self-organized critical…     

A discussion on the application ofb-value to the prediction of seismic tendency

In the estimation of seismic tendency, using Gutenberg-Richter’sb-value and using Hurst exponent are two commonly used methods. Based on the fractal geometry of earthquake time series, we point out that these two methods correlate to each other. In the perspective of fractional Brownian motion (FBM), an earthquake sequence withb>3/4 and that withb<3/4 have different dynamic properties. Foundation item: The MOST Project G1998040705. Contribution No. 01FE2010, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau.     

Evolutionary properties of stochastic models of earthquake accelerograms: Their dependence on magnitude and distance

An approach to generate artificial earthquakeaccelerograms on hard soil sites is presented. Eachtime-history of accelerations is considered as arealization of a non-stationary gaussian stochasticprocess, with statistical parameters depending onmagnitude and source-to-site distance. In order tolink the values of these parameters for each groundmotion record with the corresponding magnitude andsource-to-site distance, semi-empirical functionalrelations called generalized attenuationfunctions are determined. The set of realground-motion time histories used to obtain thesefunctions correspond to shocks generated at differentsources and recorded at different sites in thevicinity of the southern coast of Mexico. The resultsshow significant dispersion in the parameters of themodel adopted, which reflect that associated with thereal earthquakes included in the sample employed.The problem of conditional simulation of artificialacceleration time histories for prescribed intensitiesis briefly presented, but its detailed study is leftfor a companion paper. The criteria and modelsproposed are applied to generate two families ofartificial acceleration records for recurrenceintervals of 100 and 200 years at a specific sitelocated in the region under study. The results shownin this article correspond to acceleration timehistories recorded on firm ground for earthquakesgenerated at the subduction zone that runs along thesouthern coast of Mexico, and cannot be generalized tocases of earthquakes generated at other sources orrecorded at other types of local conditions. Thismeans that the methods and functional forms presentedhere are applicable to these other cases, but thevalues of the parameters that characterize thosefunctions may differ from those presented here.     

黑北公路冻土路基设计原则及病害特征

依据位于小兴安岭地区的黑北公路沿线退化多年冻土特征，以及地质、水文、气候等工程环境条件，分析了黑北公路路基可能会发生的病害和发展过程，提出了适合于黑经公路的路基设计与病害防治措施，以便比选与优化退化型多年冻土地区的路基稳定性设计原则及结构形式，同时在路基设计形式和病害处理上提出了一些初步设想和建议。     

泉州台763长周期地震仪的震相记录特征

76 3长周期地震仪 1 997年起取代基式仪 ,承担我国一类合网对国内外地震的监测和对外观测资料交换任务。本文介绍了我台 76 3长周期地震仪的震相记录特征 ,有利于台站对震相的分析 ,提高对外资料交换和大震速报水平。