准饱和黄土中暗穴水动力扩展响应的研究

为分析强降水过程中暗穴扩展机理,在野外调查资料的基础上,建立了准饱和黄土暗穴的扩展计算模型,概化为弹性准饱和土层中无限长圆柱形孔洞表面受水压力的动力响应问题。通过引入势函数,得到了Lap lace变换域中的应力、位移及孔隙水压力的解析表达式,并利用数值逆变换方法求得时域解,分析了降雨历时及饱和度等因子对暗穴动力响应的影响。结果表明,水动力是引起黄土暗穴扩展的主要因素,水压力作用历时对位移及应力有较大的影响,同时饱和度的细微变化对径向位移有显著影响。     

Drained cavity expansions in soils of finite radial extent subjected to two boundary conditions

The problem of drained cavity expansion in soils of finite radial extent is investigated. Cylindrical and spherical cavities expanded from zero radius subjected to either constant stress or zero displacement at the finite boundary are considered. The generalised analytical solution procedure presented enables more advanced constitutive models to be implemented than have been possible in previous studies. Results generated for Sydney quartz sand highlight substantial differences between cavity limit pressures for the two boundary conditions and for boundaries of finite and infinite radial extent. This is of significance in accounting for boundary effects when interpreting cone penetration tests conducted in calibration chambers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Potential Influence of a Developing La Niña on the Sea-Ice Reduction in the Barents–Kara Seas

Abstract

The potential influence of a developing La Niña on Arctic sea-ice annual variability is investigated using both observational data and an atmospheric general circulation model. It is found that during the developing phase of an eastern Pacific (EP) La Niña event in June, July, and August (JJA) and September, October, and November (SON), the sea-ice concentration (SIC) over the Barents–Kara Seas declines more than 15%. The local atmospheric circulation pattern associated with the EP La Niña is characterized as a weak decrease in geopotential height over the Barents–Kara Seas, combined with an anticyclone in the North Atlantic. The corresponding southerly winds push warm waters northward into the key sea-ice reduction region and directly accelerate sea-ice melt. Meanwhile, the abundant moisture contained in the lower troposphere is transported into the Arctic region by winds resulting from the local barotropic structure. The humid atmosphere contributes to both net shortwave and longwave radiation and thus indirectly accelerates the decline in sea ice. Simulations by the European Centre Hamburg Model, version 5.4, are forced by observed sea surface temperature anomalies associated with EP La Niña events. The results of the simulations capture the North Atlantic anticyclone and reproduce the moisture transport, which supports the premise that an EP La Niña plays a crucial role in sea-ice reduction over the Barents–Kara sector from the perspective of atmospheric circulation and net surface heat flux.     

Long-Term Variability of Volume and Heat Transport in the Nordic Seas: A Model Study

This article presents results from a model study of interannual and decadal variability in the Nordic Seas. Fifty years of simulations were conducted in an initial condition ensemble mode forced with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis. We studied two major events in the interannual and interdecadal variability of the Nordic Seas during the past fifty years: the Great Salinity Anomaly in the 1960s and early 1970s and the warming of the Arctic and subarctic oceans in the late 1990s.

Previous studies demonstrated that the Great Salinity Anomaly observed in the subarctic ocean in 1960 was originally generated by intensified sea-ice and freshwater inflow from the Arctic Ocean. Our model results demonstrate that the increase in the transport of fresh and cold waters through Fram Strait in the 1960s was concurrent with a reduction in the meridional water exchange over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. The resulting imbalance in salinity and heat fluxes through the strait and over the ridge also contributed to the freshening of the water masses of the Nordic Seas and intensified the Great Salinity Anomaly in the Nordic Seas.

The warming of the Atlantic Waters in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean during the past two decades had an important impact on the variability of these two ocean basins. Some previous observational and model studies demonstrated that the warming of the subpolar Atlantic Ocean in the late 1990s and the meridional transport of the Atlantic Water mass (AW) into the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean contributed to this process. At the same time, observations show that the warming of the AW in the Nordic Seas started in the 1980s (i.e., earlier than the warming of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean). Our model results suggest that this process was triggered by an imbalance in the lateral heat fluxes through Fram Strait and over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. In the late 1980s the AW transport over the Greenland–Scotland Ridge was stronger than normal while the exchange through Fram Strait was close to normal. The related imbalance in the lateral heat fluxes through the strait and over the ridge warmed the Nordic Seas and caused an increase in the temperature of the AW inflow to the Arctic Ocean in the late 1980s (i.e., about a decade earlier than the warming of the source of the AW in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean). Thus the model results suggest that the imbalance in lateral heat and salinity fluxes through the strait and over the ridge connecting the Nordic Seas to the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans could amplify the interannual variability in the subarctic ocean.

[Traduit par la rédaction] Cet article présente les résultats d'une étude par modèle de la variabilité interannuelle et décennale dans les mers nordiques. Nous avons effectué des simulations sur une période de cinquante ans en mode d'ensemble de conditions initiales forcé avec les réanalyses des NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction). Nous avons étudié deux événements majeurs survenus dans la variabilité interannuelle et décennale des mers nordiques au cours des cinquante dernières années : la grande anomalie de salinité des années 1960 et du début des années 1970 et le réchauffement des océans Arctique et subarctique vers la fin des années 1990.

Des études précédentes ont démontrées que la grande anomalie de salinité observée dans l'océan subarctique en 1960 a été causée par une intensification de l'apport de glace de mer et d'eau douce depuis l'océan Arctique. Les résultats que nous avons obtenus du modèle montrent que l'accroissement du transport d'eau douce et froide à travers le détroit de Fram dans les années 1960 s'est produit en même temps qu'une réduction dans l’échange méridien d'eau au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse. Le déséquilibre résultant dans les flux de salinité et de chaleur à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête a aussi contribué à l'adoucissement des masses d'eau des mers nordiques et a intensifié la grande anomalie de salinité dans les mers nordiques.

Le réchauffement des eaux atlantiques dans les mers nordiques et dans l'océan Arctique au cours des deux dernières décennies a eu un impact important sur la variabilité de ces deux bassins océaniques. Des études observationnelles et par modèle précédentes ont établi que le réchauffement de l'océan Atlantique subpolaire dans les années 1990 et le transport méridien de la masse d'eau atlantique dans les mers nordiques et dans l'océan Arctique ont contribué à ce processus. En même temps, les observations montrent que le réchauffement des eaux atlantiques dans les mers nordiques a commencé dans les années 1980 (c.–à–d. plus tôt que le réchauffement de l'océan Nord-Atlantique subpolaire). Les résultats du modèle suggèrent que ce processus a été déclenché par un déséquilibre dans les flux de chaleur latéraux à travers le détroit de Fram et au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse. À la fin des années 1980, le transport des eaux atlantiques au-dessus de la crête Groenland–Écosse était plus fort que la normale alors que l’échange à travers le détroit de Fram était près de la normale. Le déséquilibre résultant dans les flux de chaleur latéraux à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête a réchauffé les mers nordiques et causé une augmentation de la température des eaux atlantiques parvenant à l'océan Arctique à la fin des années 1980 (c.-à-d. environ une décennie avant le réchauffement de la source d'eaux atlantiques dans l'océan Nord-Atlantique subpolaire). Donc, les résultats du modèle suggèrent que le déséquilibre dans les flux de chaleur et de salinité latéraux à travers le détroit et au-dessus de la crête reliant les mers nordiques à l'Atlantique Nord et à l'Arctique pourrait amplifier la variabilité interannuelle dans l'océan subarctique.     

Linking past flood frequencies in Norway to regional atmospheric circulation anomalies

Analysis of two continuous, high‐resolution palaeo‐flood records from southern Norway reveals that the frequency of extreme flood events has changed significantly during the Holocene. During the early and middle Holocene, flood frequency was low; by contrast, it was high over the last 2300 years when the mean flood frequency was about 2.5–3.0 per century. The present regional discharge regime is dominated by spring/summer snowmelt, and our results indicate that the changing flood frequency cannot be explained by local conditions associated with the respective catchments of the two lakes, but rather long‐term variations of solid winter precipitation and related snowmelt. Applying available instrumental winter precipitation data and associated sea‐level pressure re‐analysis data as a modern analogue, we document that atmospheric circulation anomalies, significantly different from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), have some potential in explaining the variability of the two different palaeo‐flood records. Centennial‐scale patterns in shifting flood frequency might be indicative of shifts in atmospheric circulation and shed light on palaeo‐pressure variations in the North Atlantic region, in areas not influenced by the NAO. Major shifts are found at about 2300, 1200 and 200 years ago (cal. a BP). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Radar observations of prevailing winds and waves in the Southern Hemisphere mesosphere and lower thermosphere

HF radar stations (utilizing the spaced-antenna partial-reflection technique) located at Adelaide (35°S, 138°E) and Mawson Station (67°S, 63°E) have observed horizontal mesospheric winds continuously since mid-1984. Observations in the period 1984–87 are compared with the Northern Hemisphere [latitude conjugate] stations of Kyoto (35°N, 136°E) and Poker Flat (65°N, 147°W), and with satellite-derived circulation models. Particular reference is made to the equinoctial changeovers in zonal flow and to the temporal and altitude variations in the planetary wave activity at Mawson and Adelaide.     

Body force circulations in a compressible atmosphere: Key concepts

The body force circulation problem of Eliassen is extended to spherical geometry and a quasi-compressible atmosphere using the zonally symmetric tidal theory. The concept of body force circulation is generalized to include the effects of mechanical friction and Newtonian cooling. This viewpoint is conceptually advantageous when the circulation is driven by body forces against radiative relaxation. The resulting linear theory is qualitatively useful in middle atmosphere applications, including the equatorial momentum source for which an analytic solution has not been given previously. Further generalizations of the theory are possible by including dynamical and photochemical feedback effects.     

江淮流域汛期降水时空分布特征及其环流背景初步分析

应用对应分析等方法分析了江淮流域汛期(5月～9月)降水的时空分布特征,在此基础上按降水旬际变化特征将论域初划为4个区域,最后讨论了各降水区降水异常的500hPa低阶流场背景.     

多层递推平稳模型

通过对小概率事件历史样本作多层递推迭代，逐次改变引入样本数求取权函数，建立一种平稳统计模式。模式信息容量大，收敛快，克服了常规统计模式的局限性，在灾害性天气客观预报模型应用中取得了明显效果。     

Numerical Modelling of the Effects of Ozone on the Summer Atmospheric Circulation

ＮｕｍｅｒｉｃａｌＭｏｄｅｌｌｉｎｇｏｆｔｈｅＥｆｆｅｃｔｓｏｆＯｚｏｎｅｏｎｔｈｅＳｕｍｍｅｒＡｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃＣｉｒｃｕｌａｔｉｏｎＷａｎｇＱｉａｎｑｉａｎ（王谦谦）；ＷａｎｇＹｉｎｈｕｉ（汪迎辉）；ＳｏｎｇＹｕ（宋煜）（Ｎａｍｉｎｇｉｎｓｔ...