Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries

The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long- and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps.In detail, however, the distribution of large shallow earthquakes along convergent plate margins is not always consistent with a simple model derived from plate tectonics. Certain plate boundaries, for example, appear in the long term to be nearly aseismic with respect to large earthquakes. The identification of specific tectonic regimes, as defined by dip of the inclined seismic zone, the presence or absence of aseismic ridges and seamounts on the downgoing lithospheric plate, the age contrast between the overthrust and underthrust plates, and the presence or absence of back-arc spreading, have led to a refinement in the application of plate tectonic theory to the evaluation of seismic potential.The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best.The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These categories range from what we consider high to low potential for being the site of large earthquakes during that period of time. Categories 1, 2 and 6 define a time-dependent potential based on the amount of time elapsed since the last large earthquake. The remaining categories, 3, 4, and 5, are used for areas that have ambiguous histories for large earthquakes; their seismic potential is inferred from various tectonic criteria. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified.Several of the segments of major plate boundaries that are assigned the highest potential, i.e., category 1, are located along continental margins, adjacent to centers of population. Some of them are hundreds of kilometers long. High priority should be given to instrumenting and studying several of these major seismic gaps since many are now poorly instrumented. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning prorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Contribution No. 2906.     

Principal faults in the Shatsky Rise and their influence upon the evolution of the geological structure in the East Black Sea Region

A fault was traced along the southwestern margin of the Shatsky Rise. It extends to land where it crosses the Mountainous Crimea. Interpretation and analysis of marine seismic and magnetic survey data, as well as geological data on land, allow stating that the fault originated during the rift evolution stage of the East Black Sea Basin. Currently, the fault is in the sea and is a channel for migrating hydrocarbon fluids. Another fault was traced from the West Caucasus into the sea, where it separates the Shatsky Rise into two structural units.     

中国及其邻区周围板块作用力的研究

给出了如何根据观测的应力方向,利用平滑方法处理为在规则格点上均匀分布的数据的过程,并利用新编的中国及其邻区地震震源机制解推断的观测应力方向,反演了周围板块作用力的相对大小．结果表明,在周围三大板块中,以印度板块的作用力最大;其次是太平洋板块;而在菲律宾海板块边界上,作用力大小差异较大,其中又以与台湾相邻的边界段受力最大,琉球岛弧受力最小．     

Review of the chronostratigraphic charts in the Sinú-San Jacinto basin based on new seismic stratigraphic interpretations

Disperse and punctual studies; absence of integration of data ranging from local to regional focus; interpretations based only on lithostratigraphic features; and interpretation of data premised on an allochthonous origin of the Caribbean plate, are some of factors that increase the confusion and uncertainty in understanding the Sinú-San Jacinto Basin. The sedimentary record of Upper Cretaceous to Eocene has been traditionally interpreted as the record of deep-water settings. However, recently these sediments have been related to shallow marine and deltaic settings. Second problematic point is about the deposition environment of the Oligocene to Late Miocene succession. Some studies suggest canyons, turbidites and sediments deposited in deep-water settings. However, recent studies propose deltaic and shallow marine settings. The last stratigraphic problem is related to the controversial fluvial vs. shallow marine interpretations of the Pliocene sediments. Based upon seismic stratigraphic analysis in recent and reprocessed 2D seismic data, integrated with well data, we propose chronostratigraphic charts for the northern, central and southern zones of the Sinú-San Jacinto Basin. Twenty seismic facies based on amplitude, continuity, frequency and geometry of seismic reflectors and twelve seismic sequences were recognized. The seismic stratigraphic analysis in this study suggests that the sediments of Upper Cretaceous to Paleocene/Eocene were associated to continental to shallow marine settings. Lagoons, coastal plain and carbonate platform dominated during this period. The Oligocene to Middle Miocene record was characterized by deep-water deposition, whereas the Late Miocene to recent sedimentation was characterized by falling base level, characterized by deltaic and fluvial deposits. Five syn-rift sequences with wedge-shaped geometry were identified in this study. Three Triassic to Jurassic syn-rift sequences were characterized by seismic facies typical of fluvial to lacustrine and flood plain sedimentation. Two Cretaceous to Paleocene syn-rift sequences were characterized by seismic facies related to lagoons to coastal plain settings. Normal high-angle faults with a northeast-southwest direction related to rifting processes controlled the development of these sequences. The sheet-drape post-rift section was characterized by passive margin settings in the northern part of the Sinú-San Jacinto Basin and by diachronic tectonic inversion of older normal faults during Cenozoic, predominantly in the central and southern zones. The stratigraphic record related to the Mesozoic to Early Cenozoic rifting; the shallow marine sedimentation during Eocene and the tectono-stratigraphic continuity across the northern Colombia and northwestern Venezuela is coherent and well explained by the in situ origin of the Caribbean plate and is not explained by the “allochthonous” model.     

Tectonics of the Laptev Sea – Moma `Rift' Region: Investigation with Seismologic Broadband Data

Based on teleseismic broadband data, mainly recorded from stationsof the Incorporated Research Institute for Seismology (IRIS) and theGräfenberg (GRF) array in Germany, the focal mechanism and thefocal depth of the largest earthquakes in northeastern Siberia in thetime interval 1976–1996 were determined. For 9 events the relativeanelastic attenuation of the shear wave with respect to the compressionalwave along the travel paths could be calculated. Using the slip vectorsfrom the best constrained focal mechanisms and additional slip vectorsfrom Jemsek et al. (1986) and Parfenov et al. (1988), we obtained the North American–Eurasian pole of rotation west of the Cherskii mountainsat 67.1^° N, 132.3^° E.The investigation shows that the extension of the Arctic Mid-Ocean Ridgeinto the continental shelf acts as a continental graben structure.Actually, the crustal extension is concentrated on the eastern LaptevSea area and the seismicity of the western part of the Laptev Sea canbe explained by the assumption of a separate microplate. In the continentsoutheast of the Laptev Sea a series of northwest trending depressions,known as the Moma `Rift', are observed. Although in this region elevatedheat flow, recent volcanism and a low crustal thickness were found (i.e.Duchkov and Sokolova, 1985; Devyatkin, 1985), there is only a poorcorrelation between the seismicity and the rift valleys. So the Momastructures seem to be related to an aborted rift structure.     

Lopingian mixed floras from Linxi Formation in Soron area,Inner Mongolia

A lot of well-preserved plants from the Linxi Formation are collected in the Soron area,Inner Mongolia,consisting of 34 species of 16 genera. They are Late Permian in age. The flora is characterized by a lot of Angaran plants,such as Paracalamites,Comia,Rhachiphyllum,Iniopteris,Rufloria,etc. Some Cathaysian elements,such as Lobatannularia lingulata,L. multifolia,Fascipteris Cathaysiantus,F. densata,Taeniopteris szei,Cladophlebis liulinensis and C. permica,are also mixed within the present flora. This indicates that the Soron of Inner Mongolia was located in the sector between the Angaran and Cathysian floristic provinces in Lopingian. It is beneficial for depicting the location and the evolution of the Solenker--Xar Moron suture zone in the phytogeographic view. The transmigration of tropical and subtropical Cathaysian plants to the north indicates that the Paleoasian Ocean was closed during the late Permian along the suture zone.     

Lobster trap impact on coral reefs: Effects of wind‐driven trap movement

Commercial fishers report finding their lobster traps often great distances from their original location following major hurricanes. But traps also move during lesser wind events, such as during winter cold fronts. To assess trap impact on coral communities following winter storms, lobster traps were placed in hardbottom and reef habitats commonly used by commercial fishers in the Florida Keys, United States. Trap movement, percentage benthic faunal cover, and benthic faunal damage were assessed after 26 wind events occuring over three winters. Traps moved when storms with sustained winds greater than 15 knots (27.8 km/h) persisted for more than 2 days. Winter storms above this threshold moved buoyed traps a mean (±SE) distance of 3.63 ± 0.62 m, 3.21 ± 0.36 m, and 0.73 ± 0.15 m per trap and affected a mean area of 4.66 ± 0.76 m², 2.88 ± 0.29 m², and 1.06 ± 0.17 m², per trap at 4‐m, 8‐m, and 12‐m depths, respectively. Unbuoyed traps, simulating derelict traps, moved a mean distance of 0.43 ± 0.08 m and 0.44 ± 0.02 m, and affected a mean area of 0.77 ± 0.06 m² and 0.90 ± 0.08 m² per trap at 4‐m and 8‐m depths, respectively. Injuries caused by trap movement included scraped, fragmented, and dislodged sessile fauna, resulting in significant damage to stony coral, octocoral, and sponges. Overall, sessile fauna cover along the trap movement path was reduced from 45% to 31%, 51% to 41%, and 41% to 35% at the 4‐m, 8‐m, and 12‐m sites, respectively. Because of the large numbers of traps deployed and reported lost each season, damage to sessile fauna and loss of benthic faunal cover caused by traps needs to be considered to effectively protect coral reefs and manage essential fishery habitat in the future.     

西藏班公湖-怒江板块结合带岩金遥感找矿模式

西藏班公湖-怒江板块结合带地质构造复杂,成矿条件优越,具备形成金矿的地质背景条件,是西藏最具潜力和规模巨大的贵金属成矿带.但由于该区地质工作程度较低和对成矿规律认识不清,至今没有一个可供开发的岩金矿产地.通过班公湖-怒江板块结合带砂金、岩金矿(化)点,地球化学异常和重砂异常的分布并进行控矿因子分析,建立了该带两种岩金遥感找矿模式,通过验证发现该区具有大型远景规模的岩金矿产地,并认为蚀变岩型金矿和穆龙套型金矿是该带最重要的两种矿床类型,具有巨大的找矿潜力.     

计算机直接制版技术

本文通过对计算机直接制版（CTP）技术的主要目标阐述和实现目标相关的软硬件的发展论证，展示了印前技术的发展趋势。     

低纬度环球带和环太平洋带大地震的幕式活动分析

统计分析低纬度环球带(E带)和环太平洋带(P带)在1900～2008年间MW≥7.5地震的时空分布,进一步证实两者本身和两者之间都存在15～18年的幕式交替活动. 将这两大地震带分别划分为5个地震区,发现这些分区地震幕式活动互不相同, 但E带各区奇数幕与偶数幕年均地震数之比OER均大于1.58, 而P带各区的OER均小于0.93, 显示出前者以奇数幕活跃为特征, 后者以偶数幕活跃为特征. 对这些地震区的组合分析进一步证明,从幕式活动的共性看, 中太平洋地区宜纳入E带. 本文推论:低纬度环球带是另一条全球尺度地震带;大地震幕式活动的成因应归因于板块运动有几十年时间尺度的非平稳幕式运动;未来5～8年, E带的大地震还会比P带多.