Method discussion for quick response grey prediction of stronger aftershocks of an earthquake sequence

In this paper, we take occurrence process of early strong aftershocks of a main-after shock type′s earthquake sequence as a complex grey system, and introduce predicting method for its stronger aftershocks by grey predicting theory. Through inspection prediction for 1998 Zhangbei MS=6.2 earthquake sequence, it shows that the grey predicting method maybe has active significance for the investigation of quick response prediction problems of stronger aftershocks of an earthquake sequence.     

Is the September 5, 2022, Luding MS6.8 earthquake an ‘unexpected’ event?

Whether the September 5, 2022, Luding M_S6.8 earthquake is an ‘expected’ event in the context of earthquake forecast? This commentary discusses this issue mainly using the recently proposed ‘earthquake nowcasting’ approach.     

1990s长江流域降水趋势分析

依据国家气象局提供的实测月降水和日降水资料,运用Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数检验法验证了降水趋势,并通过空间插补法,由点扩展到面,分析了1990s长江流域降水变化特征,发现1990s长江流域降水变化以降水在时间和空间分布上的集中度的增加为主要特点:时间上,年降水的增加趋势以冬季1月和夏季6月降水的集中增加为主;一日降水量大于等于50mm的暴雨日数和暴雨量在1990s也有了较明显的增加.空间上,年降水、夏季降水、冬季降水的增加都以中下游区的增加为主,尤其以鄱阳湖水系、洞庭湖水系的降水增加为主.1990s长江流域春季和秋季降水的减少以5月和9月两个汛期月份的降水减少为主,除金沙江水系和洞庭湖水系等少数地区外,流域大部分地区降水呈减少趋势.上述1990s出现的降水趋势明显与近年来全球变暖背景下长江流域各地区不同的温度及水循环变异有关.     

1990s长江下游干流径流量演变趋势

利用M-K相关分析方法和大通站1950-2000年逐月径流资料,研究了长江下游干流径流的趋势变化.研究结果表明:1950s以来长江下游径流量呈增加趋势,1990s平均径流量(30415.3 m³/s)比所有其他年代平均径流都大,为近50a以来的最大值;就季节和月份而言,秋季径流明显减少;夏、冬两季径流量,增加的趋势明显,尤以冬季枯水季节径流增加最为突出.洪水、枯水季节径流增加明显,但以枯水季节径流增加占优势.冬季枯水径流的增加,可能在一定程度上能够缓解长江口生态环境的巨大压力.1990s径流量的增加与全球变暖、水循环加快、长江流域降水量增加密切相关.     

1624年“扬州地震”震中的新认识

公元1624年2月10日,即明代天启三年12月22日,在现今江苏省范围内发生了一次破坏性地震。在历次出版的地震目录中,扬州被确定为本次地震的震中,其主要依据为“扬州倒卸城垣三百八十余垛、城铺二十余处”的历史记述。《地震亘江南北疏》的发现为本次地震的研究提供了新的资料。本文分析已有资料的可靠性;选择相对可靠的历史资料划定Ⅵ度等烈度线;采用新划定的Ⅵ度等烈度线,按历史地震影响烈度的衰减关系确定本次地震的震级为6 1/4级;综合Ⅵ度等烈度线范围内的地震地质条件以及历史地震资料中人的感受、地表变形和各地地声方向记录,综合确定了震中位置大致在32.2°N、119.5°E,与1913年4月3日镇江5 1/2级地震(参考地名“江苏镇江”)震中相距不远。此外,本文还描述了本次地震的地震序列。     

On the robustness of the toroidal velocity theorem

In dynamo theory the toroidal velocity theorem in its classical version (Elsasser, Phys. Rev. 1946, vol. 69, pp. 106–116, Bullard and Gellman, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 1954, vol. A247, pp. 213–278) rules out dynamo action in a spherical conducting volume provided that the fluid is incompressible, the conductivity is uniform, and the velocity field is purely toroidal. We prove in this note that this result is robust in the sense that slight compressibility of the fluid, small non-radial variations and even large radial variations in conductivity, and the presence of a small non-toroidal velocity component do not invalidate the theorem. Moreover, by proper choice of the conductivity distribution modelling the conducting volume, small deviations from spherical symmetry of the conductor can also be taken into account.     

宾川地区的地壳厚度和泊松比分布特征研究

This paper presents the changes of crust thickness and Poissons ratios distribution in the Binchuan region,where the first air-gun transmitting station and its a small dense array were deployed.From September 2011 to January 2014,more than 239 teleseismic events of M≥6.0 were recorded in 16 stations in the Binchuan region.Their P-wave receiver functions were analyzed respectively.The high spatial resolution result shows that the average crust thickness of Binchuan region is 45.3km,it follows the rule of"deeper in the north and east part,shallower in the south and west part."The deepest region is in Xiaoyindian Station;the crust thickness is 47.9km;the shallowest region is in Paiying Station,it has the thickness of 42.1km.It shows that the deeper Moho surface nearby the Chenghai fault and shallower nearby the Honghe fault;the isoline distribution of thickness changes greatly nearby the Chenghai fault and slowly nearby the Honghe fault.From the distribution of Poissons ratios,it is unevenly in the study area with a great difference from the north part to the south part,which shows a characteristic of"lower in the north,higher in the south".The Poissons ratio nearby the Honghe fault is medium too high(0.26≤σ≤0.29);lower nearby the Chenghai fault(σ≤0.26).This paper concludes the possible reason of different characteristic between Poissons ratio and crust thickness is thicker in the upper crust in the Binchuan region.     

Residual slip of sliding blocks induced by near‐fault ground motions

The response of a rigid block supported on a horizontally moving foundation through a dry‐friction contact is investigated to near‐fault ground motions. Such motions can be thought of as consisting of a coherent component (‘pulse’) and an incoherent component, which can be described as a band‐limited ‘random noise’. The equation of motion of this strongly nonlinear system is reduced to a normalized form that reveals important parameters of the problem such as the critical acceleration ratio. The response of the sliding block to a set of uniformly processed near‐fault motions, covering a sufficiently wide range of magnitudes, is evaluated numerically for selected discrete values of the acceleration ratio. For each value of the critical acceleration ratio, the numerically computed residual slips are fitted with a Weibull (Gumbel type III) extreme value probability distribution. This allows the establishment of regression equations that describe accurately design sliding curves corresponding to various levels of non‐exceedance probability. The analysis reveals that the coherent component of motion contributes significantly to the response of the sliding block. Furthermore, the relevant acceleration in specifying the critical acceleration ratio is the (normalized) amplitude, α_{H_pulse}, of the pulse and not the (normalized) amplitude of the incoherent component α_H. Finally, the incoherent component is described quantitatively in terms of the root‐mean‐square acceleration a_RMS, and an attempt is made to understand its influence on the response of the sliding block. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

应急演练中基于G-R关系的主余型地震余震震级模拟

在现有的日常地震演练过程中,与应急救援密切相关的地震余震信息产品较为缺乏,直接影响发震构造的判断以及影响场修正等关键环节。本文从计算机系统提供的均匀分布随机数出发,运用反函数法模拟生成余震序列,并进行系统检验,证实该方法产生的余震序列满足G-R频次关系。模拟生成的余震震级数据既有助于增强地震应急救援演练的现实性,也有助于丰富地震应急宣传产品,提升地震部门的履职能力。     

河西走廊张掖绿洲土地利用/土地覆盖变化特征

Taking two false color composite Landsat 5 TM(Thematic Mapper)images of band 4,3,2taken in 1995 and 2000 as data resources,this paper carried out study on LUCC of Zhanye oasis in recent five years by interpretation according to land resources classification system of 1∶00,000 Resources and Environmental Database of the Chinese Academy of sciences.The results show that great changes have taken place in landuse/landcover in Zhangye oasis since 1995:(1)Changes of landuse structure show that cropland and land for urban construction and built-up area increased,on the contrary,water area and grassland decreased.These changes reflect the deterionration of arrangement of water and land resources between the upper and lower reaches of the Heihe River.(2)Regional differences of landuse/landcover are evident,characterized by following aspects:in Sunan County located in Qilian Mountain area,unused land and grassland decreased,but cropland and land for urban construction and built-up area inreased.In Minle and Shandan counties located in foothills,unused land,warer area and cropland decreased,but grassland and land for urban construction and built-up area increased.In Zhangye City,Linze County and Gaotai County located in plain area of the middle reaches of the Heihe River,unused land,warer area and grassland decreased,while woodland,cropland and land for urban construction and buile-up area increased.