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91.
洛阳分县温度周滚动预报系统 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用洛阳9县(市)2002年11月~2004年9月逐日最高、最低气温资料,应用欧洲中心数值预报产品,建立了洛阳9个县(市)的温度周滚动预报方程。2004~2005年试报结果表明:24~48 h预报准确率在70%左右,绝对误差在2℃以内;24~144 h预报准确率在62%~70%之间,绝对误差在2℃左右;最低气温预报效果要好于最高气温,最低气温的绝对误差与准确率分别为1.98℃和67%,最高气温的绝对误差与准确率分别为2.28℃和61%。 相似文献
92.
21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展 总被引:22,自引:0,他引:22
由于极端天气气候事件的严重影响,越来越多的研究开始关注其变化情况。从观测分析到模拟研究,几乎都发现极端气温、降水事件发生了显著变化,而且在全球变暖的大背景下,未来有些极端事件可能会发生频数更高或强度更强。当然,研究结论也存在一定程度的不确定性,从模式模拟来看,目前模拟结果仍存在不确定性,不同模式的结果间常常存在较大的差异;而从观测分析来看,研究主要局限于20世纪后半叶,如果对更长时间作分析,结论或许会有所不同。文章从最基本的极端天气气候事件的定义出发,结合观测事实和模拟研究两个主要方面来介绍近几年来极端事件研究取得的主要进展,最后简单地总结了这些进展,并提出了进一步研究的思路。
相似文献
93.
在实验室使用红外热像仪和接触式测温仪同步观测记录了压性和张性雁列断层失稳错动前后的热场变化过程.从实验记录中发现,在断层失稳引起温度场和热红外辐射亮温温度场上升之前,在两断层段之间的岩桥区发生降温变化.断层带开始升温发生在失稳前2~3 s内,岩桥区的降温却发生在失稳前约20s,这两个超前时间长度相差近一个量级.此类热场先降后升变化过程在雁列构造变形中有一定的普遍性,可能作为雁列断层失稳错动的热场前兆模式.根据实验观测结果,详细描述了上述热场变化的时间过程及其空间分布特征,分析了产生此种失稳前兆模式的机制,显著异常出现的条件及有利观测部位,讨论了它在地震前兆探索等研究中的意义. 相似文献
94.
Analysis and modeling of the seasonal South China Sea temperature cycle using remote sensing 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Daniel J. Twigt Erik D. De Goede Ernst J. O. Schrama Herman Gerritsen 《Ocean Dynamics》2007,57(4-5):467-484
The present paper describes the analysis and modeling of the South China Sea (SCS) temperature cycle on a seasonal scale.
It investigates the possibility to model this cycle in a consistent way while not taking into account tidal forcing and associated
tidal mixing and exchange. This is motivated by the possibility to significantly increase the model’s computational efficiency
when neglecting tides. The goal is to develop a flexible and efficient tool for seasonal scenario analysis and to generate
transport boundary forcing for local models. Given the significant spatial extent of the SCS basin and the focus on seasonal
time scales, synoptic remote sensing is an ideal tool in this analysis. Remote sensing is used to assess the seasonal temperature
cycle to identify the relevant driving forces and is a valuable source of input data for modeling. Model simulations are performed
using a three-dimensional baroclinic-reduced depth model, driven by monthly mean sea surface anomaly boundary forcing, monthly
mean lateral temperature, and salinity forcing obtained from the World Ocean Atlas 2001 climatology, six hourly meteorological
forcing from the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 dataset, and remotely sensed sea surface temperature
(SST) data. A sensitivity analysis of model forcing and coefficients is performed. The model results are quantitatively assessed
against climatological temperature profiles using a goodness-of-fit norm. In the deep regions, the model results are in good
agreement with this validation data. In the shallow regions, discrepancies are found. To improve the agreement there, we apply
a SST nudging method at the free water surface. This considerably improves the model’s vertical temperature representation
in the shallow regions. Based on the model validation against climatological in situ and SST data, we conclude that the seasonal
temperature cycle for the deep SCS basin can be represented to a good degree. For shallow regions, the absence of tidal mixing
and exchange has a clear impact on the model’s temperature representation. This effect on the large-scale temperature cycle
can be compensated to a good degree by SST nudging for diagnostic applications. 相似文献
95.
山东省近40a来的气温和降水变化趋势分析 总被引:19,自引:5,他引:19
本文利用非参数检验法(Mann-Kendall法)分析了山东省15个站点近40 a(1958—1998)来气温和降水的长期变化趋势。结果表明:全省气温除西南的莘县、兖州有下降趋势外,大部分地区呈现上升趋势,全省平均上升0.06℃/10a。分季情况为:春季和冬季气温有上升趋势,其中冬季气温上升对全省气温上升的贡献率最大。夏季气温基本保持不变,秋季气温有下降趋势。全省除济南降水量呈略微上升趋势外,其余地区的降水倾向率均为负值,全省的降水倾向率为-3.05 mm/a。表明山东省自1960年以来,年均降水量呈现减少趋势。减少幅度东南部大于西北部,以东南沿海平均减少幅度最大。 相似文献
96.
The transfer processes within and above a simulated urban street canyon were investigated in a generic manner. Computational
fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to aid understanding and to produce some simple operational parameterisations. In this study
we addressed specifically the commonly met situation where buoyancy effects arising from elevated surface temperatures are
not important, i.e. when mechanical forces outweigh buoyancy forces. In a geophysical context this requires that some suitably
defined Richardson number is small. From an engineering perspective this is interpreted as the important case when heat transfer
within and above urban street canyons is by forced convection. Surprisingly, this particular scenario (for which the heat
transfer coefficient between buildings and the flow is largest), has been less well studied than the situation where buoyancy
effects are important. The CFD technique was compared against wind-tunnel experiments to provide model evaluation. The height-to-width
ratio of the canyon was varied through the range 0.5–5 and the flow was normal to the canyon axis. By setting the canyon’s
facets to have the same or different temperatures or to have a partial temperature distribution, simulations were carried
out to investigate: (a) the influence of geometry on the flow and mixing within the canyon and (b) the exchange processes
within the canyon and across the canyon top interface. Results showed that the vortex-type circulation and turbulence developed
within the canyon produced a temperature distribution that was, essentially, spatially uniform (apart from a relatively thin
near-wall thermal boundary layer) This allowed the temperatures within the street canyon to be specified by just one value
T
can
, the canyon temperature. The variation of T
can
with wind speed, surface temperatures and geometry was extensively studied. Finally, the exchange velocity u
E
across the interface between the canyon and the flow above was calculated based on a heat flux balance within the canyon
and between the canyon and the flow above. Results showed that u
E
was approximately 1% of a characteristic wind velocity above the street canyon. The problem of radiative exchange is not
addressed but it can, of course, be introduced analytically, or computationally, when necessary. 相似文献
97.
为了改进肿瘤的微波热疗,我们进行915MHz微波亚铁磁共振的实验研究。结果表明915MHz微波象2450MHz一样,有明显而尖锐的亚铁共振升温。实验测量了不同聚集状态,不同饱和磁化强度亚铁磁共振介质的共振升温并用鸡蛋清受热固化来显示共振升温度分布的影响。 相似文献
98.
99.
根据5个代表性台站的温度等级资料,得到了东北科尔沁地区1911-1988年区域平均的温度等级时间变化序列。这个地区冬季温度在年际、年代际和长期趋势上的变化与辽东半岛地区十分相似,但夏季温度的变化在各种时间尺度上同辽东半岛均存在较显著差异。本世纪科尔沁地区冬季温度和辽东半岛一样出现了明显增暖趋势,而夏季温度的变凉趋势却不如后者显著。 相似文献
100.
Ruchi Mishra 《Planetary and Space Science》2006,54(2):188-199
Dispersion relation, resonant energy transferred, growth rate and marginal instability criteria for the electrostatic ion-cyclotron wave with general loss-cone distribution in low-β anisotropic, homogeneous plasma in the auroral acceleration region are discussed by investigating the trajectories of the charged particles. Effects of the parallel electric field, ion beam velocity, steepness of the loss-cone distribution and temperature anisotropy on resonant energy transferred and growth rate of the instability are discussed. It is found that the effect of the parallel electric field is to stabilize the wave and enhance the transverse acceleration of ions whereas the effect of steepness of loss-cone, ion beam velocity and the temperature anisotropy is to enhance the growth rate and decrease the transverse acceleration of ions. The steepness of the loss-cone also introduces a peak in the growth rate which shifts towards the lower side of the perpendicular wave number with the increasing steepness of the loss-cone. 相似文献