标准农田规划空间决策支持模型的研究与实现

在中国工业化与城市化进程加速的背景下,部分地区耕地的质与量难以得到保障,因此迫切需要在平衡粮食安全与经济社会增长的基础上对其做出科学规划,而空间决策支持模型的建立有助于该规划的编制。基于对标准农田规划过程的分析,将模型的概念框架分解为以下三个步骤:①构建标准农田资源评价模型:利用群体层次分析法和土地适应性评价模型评估标准农田资源;②构建标准农田规划备选方案生成模型:采用0￣1整数规划模型生成若干标准农田规划备选方案;③构建标准农田最优规划方案决策模型,采用非确定型决策模型辅助评价选取最优规划方案。文章对概念模型的规范化过程进行详细探讨,最后以浙江省桐庐县石阜镇为实验区,对模型进行实现和初步验证。     

土体流变破坏时间的灰色预测模型

根据不同载荷条件下土体蠕变破坏的时间数据列,建立了土体流变破坏时间的灰色预测模型。该模型能根据土体在较高应力条件下的蠕变破坏时间预测其在较低应力水平条件下的蠕变破坏时间,可用于边坡破坏预测、岩土工程、岩土力学试验等领域。     

基于PSR 模型的厦门湾中华白海豚资源评价

中华白海豚(Sousa chinensis Osbeck,1765)为国家Ⅰ级重点野生保护动物,厦门湾作为其在中国的主要分布区之一,自20世纪80年代以来,海岸带开发活动和环境污染程度均不断加大,导致此海域中华白海豚的生存环境不断恶化,种群数量日趋减少,资源状况面临严重威胁。作者采用PSR(压力-状态-响应)模型框架,对厦门湾中华白海豚资源面临的主要环境压力、当前的资源状态以及采取的保护响应措施进行了一个较全面的评价,评价结果认为:围填海工程、船只交通、水下爆破作业和陆源排污等人类活动给厦门湾中华白海豚带来了生境缩小、身体伤害、环境污染和饵料短缺等严重影响,厦门市已采取的保护政策响应包括就地保护、迁地保护和公共管理等方面,目前种群资源数量稳定在80头左右并有潜力扩大。基于评价结果,作者提出了加强保护的建议和策略,可为厦门以外海区的中华白海豚保护工作提供参考。     

非饱和黄土的弹塑性软化本构模型

通过对陕西杨陵地区的非饱和黄土进行等应力比压缩试验和常规三轴试验,在对试验结果的应力-应变曲线特性进行分析的基础上,由试验结果直接确定屈服函数,根据Drucker公设,即相适应的流动法则,选择合适的硬化参数,建立了非饱和黄土的弹塑性本构模型,并将模型计算结果与试验结果进行比较。结果表明,该模型能够较好地模拟非饱和黄土与固结应力有关的应变软化现象,计算的变形规律与试验结果基本吻合。     

FWG2递减开发模型

本文提出了ＦＷＧ２递减开发模型,提出了开发速度,采出程度等开发指标的数学关系式,分析了参数对ＦＷＧ２递减开发模型的影响,提出了开发初期ＦＷＧ２递减开发模型的确定方法,便于开发初期决策,制作了ＦＷＧ２递减开发模型的ｌｏｇＶｄ－ｌｏｇＲｐ图版,ｌｏｇＶＤ～ｌｏｇ（ａｔ）图版,ｌｏｇＲｐ－ｌｏｇ（ａｔ）图版,提出了开发中晚期ＦＷＧ２递减开发模型的判断方法,三点抛物线法和三种图牌区配的拟合方法,为开发中晚期预测奠定了基础,ＦＷＧ２递减开发模型是一种高精度直线递减模型。     

不同矿化度下泥质对岩石电性影响的逾渗网络研究

为了进一步认识泥质对岩石宏观电性的影响规律,本文利用非规整三维逾渗网络模型,通过数值模拟研究了不同矿化度下泥质对岩石电性影响的规律. 模拟结果表明：在中低矿化度下,泥质对岩石导电整体上呈现减阻作用,随着泥质含量的增加,电阻率降低的速度减慢;中等矿化度下泥质的减阻效果明显弱于低矿化度下的减阻效果;在高矿化度下泥质对岩石导电整体上呈现增阻作用. 在高矿化度、高含水饱和度下泥质对岩石电性的影响较小. 泥质起减阻、增阻作用的具体矿化度范围取决于储层的孔隙度、连通性以及地层温度等特性.     

Geomorphology-oriented digital terrain analysis: Progress and perspectives

Digital terrain analysis(DTA) is one of the most important contents in the research of geographical information science(GIS). However, on the basis of the digital elevation model(DEM), many problems exist in the current research of DTA in geomorphological studies. For instance, the current DTA research appears to be focused more on morphology, phenomenon, and modern surface rather than mechanism, process, and underlying terrain. The current DTA research needs to be urgently transformed from the study of landform morphology to one focusing on landform process and mechanism. On this basis, this study summarizes the current research status of geomorphology-oriented DTA and systematically reviews and analyzes the research about the knowledge of geomorphological ontology, terrain modeling, terrain derivative calculation, and terrain analytical methods. With the help of DEM data, DTA research has the advantage of carrying out geomorphological studies from the perspective of surface morphology. However, the study of DTA has inherent defects in terms of data expression and analytic patterns. Thus, breakthroughs in basic theories and key technologies are necessary. Moreover, scholars need to realize that DTA research must be transformed from phenomenon to mechanism, from morphology to process, and from terrain to landform. At present, the research development of earth science has reached the critical stage in which the DTA research should focus more on geomorphological ontology. Consequently, this study proposes several prospects of geomorphology-oriented DTA from the aspects of value-added DEM data model, terrain derivatives and their spatial relations, and macro-terrain analysis. The study of DTA based on DEM is at a critical period along with the issue on whether the current GIS technology can truly support the development of geography. The research idea of geomorphology-oriented DTA is expected to be an important exploration and practice in the field of GIS.     

WRF模式三维变分中背景误差协方差估计

利用WRF模式2008年5-10月逐日预报结果,通过NMC方法进行背景误差协方差(B)估计.给出其结构特征,进行单点数值试验,并利用不同B进行1个月的数值模拟试验,检验模拟降水效果.结果表明:通过单点数值试验验证估算的B结构合理.不同的B,资料同化过程差别较大,应用重新统计的B,同化效率更高,目标函数收敛更稳定.模式模...     

Experiments with the Improved Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation over South China

In recent work, three physical factors of the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP model) have been introduced, namely, tropical cyclone (TC) track, TC landfall season, and TC intensity. In the present study, we set out to test the forecasting performance of the improved model with new similarity regions and ensemble forecast schemes added. Four experiments associated with the prediction of accumulated precipitation were conducted based on 47 landfalling TCs that occurred over South China during 2004-2018. The first experiment was designed as the DSAEF_LTP model with TC track, TC landfall season, and intensity (DSAEF_LTP-1). The other three experiments were based on the first experiment, but with new ensemble forecast schemes added (DSAEF_LTP-2), new similarity regions added (DSAEF_LTP-3), and both added (DSAEF_LTP- 4), respectively. Results showed that, after new similarity regions added into the model (DSAEF_LTP-3), the forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model for heavy rainfall (accumulated precipitation ≥250 mm and ≥100 mm) improved, and the sum of the threat score (TS250 + TS100) increased by 4.44%. Although the forecasting performance of DSAEF_LTP-2 was the same as that of DSAEF_LTP-1, the forecasting performance was significantly improved and better than that of DSAEF_LTP-3 when the new ensemble schemes and similarity regions were added simultaneously (DSAEF_LTP-4), with the TS increasing by 25.36%. Moreover, the forecasting performance of the four experiments was compared with four operational numerical weather prediction models, and the comparison indicated that the DSAEF_LTP model showed advantages in predicting heavy rainfall. Finally, some issues associated with the experimental results and future improvements of the DSAEF_LTP model were discussed.     

Calibration of the parameters for a hardening–softening constitutive model using genetic algorithms

The present paper introduces a genetic algorithm-based optimization technique to calibrate a nonlinear strain hardening–softening constitutive model for soils using five material parameters. The efficiency of the proposed technique is analyzed through the use of different GA techniques. The effects of elitism, crossover, and mutation, as well as population size, on the performance of the conventional GAs for this problem are investigated. Micro-genetic algorithms (mGAs) are chosen and tested for different population sizes. The mGAs with a population size of five yields the optimal parameter values after fewer function evaluations and capture the overall simulated or experimental behavior at every point in stress–strain and strain paths in triaxial compression. The proposed calibration technique is validated through comparison with the traditional calibration technique.