基于粗糙集与犹豫层次分析的北极东北航道风险评估

运用风险分析理论和方法,以北极东北航道6个关键海峡为研究目标,构建东北航道自然环境风险评价指标体系;针对全球气候变暖以及海冰融化背景下北极东北航道航行安全问题,引入犹豫层次分析方法确定指标主观权重、采用粗糙集思想来确定客观权重,集成得到组合权重。基于所建风险分析模型,对其中3个关键海峡的自然环境风险进行了量化评估和时空特征分析,同时计算了2013年8月份6个关键海峡的风险度,模拟了一条最优通航线路并与同时期永盛号轮船的实际航行线路进行了比对。研究表明:(1)2000-2014年东北航道3个关键海峡自然环境风险均呈现减小趋势,红军海峡自然环境风险减小趋势最大;(2)对比3个海峡海峡自然环境风险度,德朗海峡最低,维利基茨基海峡次之,二者均适合通航;红军海峡风险度最高,且不适宜通航;(3)模型模拟路线与实际航线较吻合,对实时航行路线的选择有参考意义。     

Lateral dynamic response of a partially embedded pile subjected to combined loads in saturated soil

In this article, an analytical solution is proposed to investigate the lateral dynamic response of a pile which is partially embedded in saturated soil layer and subjected to combined lateral and vertical loads. The saturated soil is described by Biot’s poroelastic theory and the resistance of soil is derived by potential function method. The governing equation of the pile is solved by coupling soil resistance and continuity conditions between the pile and the soil. The dynamic impedances of the pile are then obtained through transfer matrix method. To verify the validity of the proposed procedure, the present solution is compared with available solution for an idealized case. Finally, a parametric study is performed to investigate the effects of various parameters on the stiffness and damping properties of the pile-soil system. It is found that permeability of the soil and vertical load has significant effects on the dynamic response of the pile.     

浮体间距对多浮体系统水动力系数的影响

根据三维线性势流理论，采用格林函数法，对多浮体系统的水动力系数进行了数值分析。数值算例中给出了在固定波频下水动力系数与浮体间相对位置关系曲线。水动力系数的变化幅度随着浮体间距离增大而变小。随着浮体间距的变化，水动力系数极值的出现具有明显的规律，相邻的极大值(或极小值)的间距为半个波长或一个波长。     

On the geologic structure of the Explora Escarpment (Weddell Sea,Antarctica) revealed by satellite and Shipboard data evaluation

Bathymetric, gravity, and magnetic data from Antarctic expeditions with RV POLARSTERN and satellite altimeter data from the Geosat Geodetic Mission are analysed using methods from geostatistics and geophysical inverse theory.The Explora Escarpment represents the edge between the Antarctic Continental Shelf and the Weddell Abyssal Plain. It is an important link in the reconstruction of Gondwana breakup, but a feature as large as the 2000 m deep Wegener Canyon was only discovered in 1984, when extensive bathymetric, gravimetric, and magnetic surveys with RV POLARSTERN began.Geostatistics, the theory of regionalized variables, is applied to integrate dense surveys of Wegener Canyon and sparse observations in adjacent areas into maps with full coverage of the 230 km by 330 km area at 10°–20° W/70°–72° S. The resultant highresolution bathymetric and gravity maps reveal detailed structures of the Explora Escarpment. Using geophysical inversion, the gravity terrain effect is calculated. Satellite data are used for their better coverage, but have much lower resolution. Nevertheless, the structures of Wegener Canyon and other more prominent features appear with surprisingly good correlation also in the Geosat altimeter data. While it was initially supposed that Wegener Canyon is purely an erosional structure, the magnetic map now provides evidence of the canyon's tectonic origin.     

大气对流边界层中的涡漩结构

大气边界层中存在尺度从几百米到几十公里的大涡漩运动.它们在边界层中动量、热量、水汽等垂直输送中起重要作用.作者从边界层中对流和上部稳定层中波动相互作用的观点,发展得出大涡结构的对流波动理论.根据此理论,大涡的波谱构成主要由上、下层大气中风向、风速、层结以及两层之间的温度跃变等因素决定.本文根据卫星云图和天气资料分析了一次冷空气爆发流经暖洋面上形成云街、对流单体以及它们之间的相互演化的过程,并用对流波动理论,依据各阶段的大气条件计算出它们的波数构成,并得出了垂直速度、辐合带、界面扰动的分布,解释了云街、对流单体的形成、结构及相互转化的原因.     

Bifurcation and chaos of an articulated loading platform with piecewise non-linear stiffness using the incremental harmonic balance method

The bifurcation behavior of an articulated loading platform subjected to harmonic excitation is investigated by the incremental harmonic balance (IHB) method. The platform is modeled as a single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) non-linear system with piecewise non-linear restoring force characteristics. The elements of the Jacobian matrix and the residue vector arising in the IHB formulations are derived in closed form. The path-following procedure using the arc length continuation method is used to trace the response curves and bifurcation diagrams. The periodic solutions and the subharmonic solutions obtained by the IHB method compare very well with the numerically integrated solutions. The bifurcation points also compare well with the numerically obtained results. The system exhibits chaotic motion through a sequence of period doubling bifurcations. Isolated period 3 solutions are also present. The Lyapunov exponents are computed and the initial condition map corresponding to coexistent attractors are obtained by the interpolated cell mapping (ICM) method.     

考虑海平面上升影响的极值水位计算

本研究基于非平稳序列极值理论,定量分析极端水位事件年超越概率受海平面上升的影响;以工程设计使用年限内极端水位发生概率作为控制条件,构建考虑海平面上升的极值水位计算方法;结合平均海平面的长期变化过程,推算海平面上升下的极值水位。基于全球10个验潮站历史水位观测资料,验证历史平均海平面长期变化与高、低水位耿贝尔分布位置参数变化的一致性以及构建方法的合理性。结合政府间气候变化专门委员会对海平面上升的预测,推算和对比分析不同海平面上升情景下的极值水位,并评估相应极值水位在当前极值分布中的重现期。     

经典选权迭代法研究与两步抗差估计的提出

随着权函数的不同出现了不同的抗差估计方法,相应不同的抗差估计方法在一定程度上存在着不足或者缺陷。详细地论述了几种经典的选权迭代抗差估计方法的不足,并从理论出发,提出了两步抗差方案。     

Spectral Analysis of Nonlinear Drag Forces

The spectral properties of nonlinear drag forces of random waves on vertical circular cylinders are analyzed in this paper by means of nonlinear spectral analysis. The analysis provides basic parameters for estimation of the characteristic drag forces. Numerical computation is also performed for the investigation of the effects of nonlinearity of the drag forces.The results indicate that the wave drag forces calculated by linear wave theory are larger than those calculated by the third order Stokes wave theory for given waves. The difference between them increases with wave height. The wave drag forces calculated by use of hnear approximation are about 5% smaller than their actual values when measured in the peak values of spectral densities. This will result in a safety problem for the design of offshore structures. Therefore, the nonlinear effect of wave drag forces should be taken into comidemtion in design and application of important offshore structures.     

土体疲劳对打桩分析的影响

在动力沉桩过程中,桩长时间连续运动导致桩侧土体强度的降低,使土体产生疲劳效应。结合一维应力波动理论,桩土相互作用模型和土体疲劳的不同计算方法,编制计算软件,对渤海某油田采油平台的桩基工程进行打桩分析,预测沉桩过程所需的锤击数、桩周土静阻力以及桩的极限承载力。比较不同的桩侧土体疲劳计算模式的分析结果,并用工程实测数据验证计算值。为工程设计和施工提供参考。