中国城市空气污染时空分布格局和人口暴露风险

近年来,中国空气污染及其对人口健康危害的时空分布呈现出新的特征。论文使用5 a(2015—2019年)间逐小时的空气质量监测数据,利用变化率计算、热点分析、趋势分析和超标频数统计等方法,分析了中国332个城市的空气质量及人口空气污染暴露风险的时空分布特征,结论如下：① 中国城市近年来空气质量有好转趋势,环境空气质量指数(AQI)下降的城市占所研究城市总数的91.3%;PM_2.5、PM₁₀、SO₂和CO等4种污染物浓度均有所下降,而NO₂和O₃浓度有所上升;② PM_2.5、PM₁₀、SO₂和CO浓度变化率的热点分布于新疆地区和云南—华南地区,NO₂浓度变化率的热点为新疆地区和河套平原,O₃浓度变化率的热点为华北平原至长江中下游流域;西北地区和华南地区空气质量变化幅度较小;③ 9个城市在PM_2.5、PM₁₀、SO₂、NO₂、O₃和CO等6种污染物中均有暴露,分布于山西、河北与山东。暴露风险均为0级的低风险城市共有12个,分别位于新疆、云南、贵州、四川、广东、福建和黑龙江。研究结论对于跨区域空气污染的协同治理以及制定差异化的空间人口流动管理政策具有重要参考价值。     

The AD 1717 rock avalanche deposits in the upper Ferret Valley (Italy): a dating approach with cosmogenic 10Be

On 12 September AD 1717, a rock volume larger than 10 million m³ collapsed onto the Triolet Glacier, mobilized a mass composed of ice and sediment and travelled more than 7 km downvalley in the upper Ferret Valley, Mont Blanc Massif (Italy). This rock avalanche destroyed two small settlements, causing seven casualties and loss of livestock. No detailed maps were made at the time. Later investigators attributed accumulations of granitic boulders and irregular ridges on the upper valley floor to either glacial deposition, or the AD 1717 rock avalanche, or a complex mixture of glacial deposition, earlier rock avalanche and AD 1717 rock avalanche origin. In this study, we present cosmogenic ¹⁰Be exposure ages from nine boulders in the extensive chaotic boulder deposit with irregular ridges, two from Holocene glacier‐free areas, and one from a Little Ice Age moraine. Exposure ages between 330 ± 23 and 483 ± 123 a from eight of nine boulders from the chaotic deposit indicate that at least seven were deposited by the AD 1717 rock avalanche. The other three boulders yielded ¹⁰Be exposure ages of 10 900 ± 400, 9700 ± 400 and 244 ± 97 a, respectively. Our results are in good agreement with the existing chronology from dendrochronology and lichenometry, and radiocarbon analysis of wood samples, but not with older ¹⁴C ages from a peat bog in the upper part of the valley. Based on the new age control, the rock avalanche deposits cover the whole bottom of the upper Ferret valley. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Pleistocene and Holocene glaciation of the Fish Lake valley,northeastern Alaska Range,Alaska

We reconstructed a chronology of glaciation spanning from the Late Pleistocene through the late Holocene for Fish Lake valley in the north‐eastern Alaska Range using ¹⁰Be surface exposure dating and lichenometry. After it attained its maximum late Wisconsin extent, the Fish Lake valley glacier began to retreat ca. 16.5 ka, and then experienced a readvance or standstill at 11.6 ± 0.3 ka. Evidence of the earliest Holocene glacial activity in the valley is a moraine immediately in front of Little Ice Age (LIA) moraines and is dated to 3.3–3.0 ka. A subsequent advance culminated at ca. AD 610–900 and several LIA moraine crests date to AD 1290, 1640, 1860 and 1910. Our results indicate that ¹⁰Be dating from high‐elevation sites can be used to help constrain late Holocene glacial histories in Alaska, even when other dating techniques are unavailable. Close agreement between ¹⁰Be and lichenometric ages reveal that ¹⁰Be ages on late Holocene moraines may be as accurate as other dating methods. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Donegal ice dome,northwest Ireland: dimensions and chronology

Geomorphological evidence indicates that Donegal was formerly occupied by an ice dome that extended offshore to the west, northwest and north and was confluent with adjacent ice masses to the east and south. Erosive warm‐based ice over‐rode almost all the highest mountains, implying an ice‐divide altitude greater than 700 m. Only six peripheral summits escaped glacial modification, implying either that they remained above the ice surface as nunataks or supported a thin cover of protective cold‐based ice. Gibbsite, a pre‐last glacial weathering product, is preferentially represented on summits that escaped glacial modification. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be exposure ages of 18.6 ± 1.4 to 15.9 ± 1.0 k yr for coastal sites confirm that Donegal ice extended offshore at the last glacial maximum. Reconstruction of the form of the Donegal ice dome suggests a former minimum ice thickness of ～500 m close to the present coastline in the west and northwest, and ～400 m near the coast of the Inishowen Peninsula in the north, with the ice extending at least 20 km across the adjacent shelf to the west and northwest. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new Scandinavian reference 10Be production rate

An important constraint on the reliability of cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating is the rigorous determination of production rates. We present a new dataset for ¹⁰Be production rate calibration from Mount Billingen, southern Sweden, the site of the final drainage of the Baltic Ice Lake, an event dated to 11,620 ± 100 cal yr BP. Five samples of flood-scoured bedrock surfaces (58.5°N, 13.7°E, 105–120 m a.s.l.) unambiguously connected to the drainage event yield a reference ¹⁰Be production rate of 4.19 ± 0.20 atoms g⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for the CRONUS-Earth online calculator Lm scaling and 4.02 ± 0.18 atoms g⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for the nuclide specific LSD_n scaling. We also recalibrate the reference ¹⁰Be production rates for four sites in Norway and combine three of these with the Billingen results to derive a tightly clustered Scandinavian reference ¹⁰Be production rate of 4.13 ± 0.11 atoms g⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for the CRONUS Lm scaling and 3.95 ± 0.10 atoms g⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for the LSD_n scaling scheme.     

中国暴雨洪涝灾害的暴露度与脆弱性时空变化特征

利用1984-2012年中国暴雨洪涝灾害灾情和社会经济数据,从灾害暴露范围、人口暴露度、经济暴露度和农作物暴露度4个方面分析了灾害暴露度的特征,从人口脆弱性和经济脆弱性两方面分析了灾害脆弱性特征。研究表明：1984-2012年,中国暴雨洪涝灾害年平均暴露范围、人口暴露度、经济暴露度和农作物暴露度分别为9.37万km²、126人/km²、149万元/km²和1.53亿hm²,暴露度总体呈显著增加趋势,高暴露区域主要分布在沿海省（市）;人口脆弱性显著增大,但经济脆弱性有逐渐减小的趋势,灾害脆弱性高值区主要分布在长江中游沿岸的湖南、安徽、重庆、江西、湖北等省（市）,上海、北京、天津为灾害脆弱性最低的区域。     

Enhanced rock‐slope failure following ice‐sheet deglaciation: timing and causes

The temporal pattern of rock‐slope failures (RSFs) following Late Pleistocene deglaciation on tectonically stable terrains is controversial: previous studies variously suggest (1) a rapid response due to removal of supporting ice (‘debuttressing’), (2) a progressive decline in RSF frequency, and (3) a millennial‐scale delay before peak RSF activity. We test these competing models through beryllium‐10 (¹⁰Be) exposure dating of five closely‐spaced quartzite RSFs on the Isle of Jura, Scotland, to establish the relationship between timing of failure and those of deglaciation, episodes of rapid warming and periods of rapid glacio‐isostatic uplift. All five dated RSFs occurred at least 720–2240 years after deglaciation, with the probability of failure peaking ~2 ka after deglaciation, consistent with millennial‐scale delay model (3). This excludes debuttressing as an immediate cause of failure, though it is likely that time‐dependent stress release due to deglacial unloading resulted in progressive development of failure planes within the rock. Thaw of permafrost ice in joints is unlikely to have been a prime trigger of failure as some RSFs occurred several centuries after the onset of interstadial warming. Conversely, the timespan of the RSFs coincides with the period of maximum glacio‐isostatic crustal uplift, suggesting that failure was triggered by uplift‐driven seismic events acting on fractured rock masses. Implications of this and related research are: (1) that retreat of the last Pleistocene ice sheets across tectonically‐stable mountainous terrains was succeeded by a period of enhanced rock‐slope failure due to deglacial unloading and probably uplift‐driven seismicity; (2) that the great majority of RSFs in the British Isles outside the limits of Loch Lomond Stadial (= Younger Dryas) glaciation are of Lateglacial (pre‐Holocene) age; and (3) numerous RSFs must also have occurred inside Loch Lomond Stadial (LLS) glacial limits, but that runout debris was removed by LLS glaciers. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

REVIEW ON IN-SITU COSMOGENIC 14C DATING AND POTENTIAL APPLICATION IN PALEOEARTHQUAKE

Over the last two decades, in-situ cosmogenic ¹⁴C dating has become an import tool in Quaternary geology and is recognized to geoscientists because of its potential to provide information on exposure age and process rate estimates for geomorphic studies. The in-situ cosmogenic radiocarbon has a relatively short half-life(5730 yr)and is substantially more sensitive than all the other cosmogenic nuclides used so far. It is therefore particularly useful to determine surface-exposure ages of Holocene landforms and quantify erosion rates in rapidly denuding landscapes during the past few tens of thousands of years. Moreover, in situ ¹⁴C is produced in quartz which is both highly resistant to weathering and common in nature, so it can be used in combination with other in-situ cosmogenic nuclides such as ³He, ¹⁰Be,²¹Ne,²⁶Al, and ³⁶Cl to constrain complex exposure histories involving burial and/or erosion occurring over the past 25ka. The age and slip rate of Holocene normal fault have been undoubtedly a challenge for seismologists to be faced with as result from lack of appropriate late Quaternary sediment. Recently, the cosmogenic nuclides such as ³⁶Cl of preserved, seismically exhumed normal fault scarps were used to identify the last few major earthquakes and recover their ages and displacements through the modeling of the content of ³⁶Cl in the scarp rocks. This paper mainly summarizes the development of in-situ ¹⁴C dating, including its research history, production rate estimate, production mechanism, chemical behavior and experimental method. The potential application of in-situ ¹⁴C dating to recovering past earthquakes, their timing, and the regularity of their recurrence for preserved, seismically exhumed normal fault scarps is also introduced.     

从气候变化的新视角理解灾害风险、暴露度、脆弱性和恢复力

不断变化的气候可导致前所未有的极端天气和气候事件。这些事件能否构成灾害,在很大程度上取决于脆弱性和暴露度水平。虽然无法完全消除各种灾害风险,但灾害风险管理和气候变化适应的重点是减少脆弱性和暴露度,并提高对各种潜在极端事件不利影响的恢复力,从而促进社会和经济的可持续发展。全面的灾害风险管理要求更加合理地分配对减灾、灾害管理等方面所付出的努力。过去的主流是强调灾害管理,但目前减灾成为关注焦点和挑战。这种主动积极的灾害风险管理与适应有助于避免未来的风险和灾害,而不仅仅是减少已有的风险和灾害,同时这也是灾害风险管理和气候变化适应更加紧密联系的一个背景。灾害风险管理促进气候变化适应从应对当前的影响中汲取经验,而气候变化适应帮助灾害风险管理更加有效地应对未来变化的条件。     

中国农村房屋震灾脆弱性评估及其成因分析

中国农村地区的房屋普遍处于地震未设防的状态,在地震中房屋结构破坏是造成人员伤亡和财产损失的主要因素。作为重要的灾害承险体之一,从房屋结构方面进行区域震灾损失的预测对把握各个地区的灾害脆弱性,科学地制定区域防灾战略和规划具有极其重要的意义。①基于中国县级尺度房屋结构数据库的前期基础工作,以2000 年中国地震区划为基本依据,参考震灾条件下的不同结构房屋破坏比和易损性曲线的研究成果,对中国县级空间尺度的农村房屋震灾脆弱性进行了整体评估。② 根据房屋破坏损失的预测结果,将中国农村地区划分为低脆弱性、一般脆弱性、较高脆弱性和极高脆弱性地区4 类,并对较高、极高脆弱性地区的空间分布规律进行了分析。结果表明,中国约18.6%的县处于脆弱性较高和极高的地区,主要集聚在南疆,北疆的乌苏、精河、伊宁等地区,陕西、甘肃、宁夏地区,山东中南部、安徽、江苏等地区,西藏南部边境地区,云南以及青藏高原板块边缘纵贯青川滇的都兰—玛多—道孚—泸定—冕宁—昆明—建水沿线地区。③ 根据各个地区震灾脆弱性的成因和类型,以及较高、很高脆弱性地区的区域发展水平特征,提出了区域防灾策略的建议。