陇南“5·31”特大泥石流灾害成因分析

2 0 0 0年 5月 31日甘肃省岷县和宕昌县爆发了 1 50年一遇的特大泥石流灾害 ,造成的损失是陇南地区近 2 0年 ( 1 980年～ 1 999年 )滑坡、泥石流灾害总和的 76 %。利用陇南地区近 2 0年资料研究发现 :地质灾害与大气环流、降水强度等方面有密切的联系 ,降雨是造成滑坡、泥石流灾害的触发条件 ,不同地区、不同性质的降水造成的灾害不同。据此总结了陇南地区滑坡、泥石流灾害预报着眼点。     

Linear Stability of a Double Diffusive Layer of an Infinite Prandtl Number Fluid with Temperature-Dependent Viscosity

An infinite horizontal layer, with vertically stratified temperature and solute concentration, is considered in the case where the viscosity is exponentially dependent on temperature, and the Prandtl number is infinite. Its linear stability is investigated when the destabilizing thermal gradient acts against a stabilizing solute gradient. The analysis is performed using horizontal Fourier and vertical Chebyshev polynomial expansions. For the constant viscosity case, the laws well established in the free boundary configuration are seen to be directly suitable for the rigid one. In the variable viscosity case, characterised by a given viscosity contrast c, the scaling laws with c are settled extrapolating to the double diffusive situation the approach initiated by Stengel et al. (1982). In contrast with the constant viscosity case, the critical wave number is found to be strongly dependent on the solutal Rayleigh number in the marginal oscillatory obtained at large contrast values.     

Possible effects of lateral viscosity variations induced by plate-tectonic mechanism on geoid inferred from numerical models of mantle convection

In a traditional analytical method, the convective features of Earth’s mantle have been inferred from surface signatures obtained by the geodynamic model only with depth-dependent viscosity structure. The moving and subducting plates, however, bring lateral viscosity variations in the mantle. To clarify the effects of lateral viscosity variations caused by the plate-tectonic mechanism, I have first studied systematically instantaneous dynamic flow calculations using new density-viscosity models only with vertical viscosity variations in a three-dimensional spherical shell. I find that the geoid high arises over subduction zones only when the vertical viscosity contrast between the upper mantle and the lower mantle is O(10³) to O(10⁴), which seems to be much larger than the viscosity contrast suggested by other studies. I next show that this discrepancy may be removed when I consider the lateral viscosity variation caused by the plate-tectonic mechanism using two-dimensional numerical models of mantle convection with self-consistently moving and subducting plates, and suggest that the observed geoid anomaly on the Earth’s surface is significantly affected by plate-tectonic mechanism as a first-order effect.     

Earth's tectonic history revisited in the light of episodic misfits between plate network and mantle convection

Episodic plate reorganisations abruptly change plate boundary configurations. To illustrate their role, we review the plate reorganisations that appear in the present-day oceans and in the reconstructed Tethys ocean. These time periods cover the dispersal of the Pangea super-continent and the collisions with Eurasia that foreshadow a new super-continent. Plate reorganisations have played a fundamental role in the tectonic history of the Earth, being responsible for continental break-up and, after oceanic spreading, for continental collisions. As a result, they governed the formation and dispersal of super-continents. We observe a bulk polarity in plate motion that governs continental collision and the opposite bulk polarity in plate reorganisation that governs continental break-up. Such opposite polarities show in the tectonic history that we follow since the 550 Ma formation of the Gondwana super-continent.In order to decipher the rules that govern plate reorganisation, we investigate the distribution of spreading and subduction that derives from the current plate motion. We observe a mismatch between the evolution tendency of the plate boundary network and convection in the deep mantle. The actual network of plate boundaries illustrates a compromise between the two. Based on the opposite polarities in plate motion and plate reorganisation, we propose that this compromise is maintained by plate reorganisations that counterbalance free evolution of the network in abruptly changing its boundaries. We propose that plate reorganisations are basically caused by the mismatch between the free evolution of the plate boundary network and the current convection pattern in the deep mantle.Evidence on Proterozoic rifting and continent collisions allows dating the oldest known plate reorganisation around 2 Ga, which is the age of the oldest known super-continent. Based on the geology of the Archean before 3 Ga, mantle convection appears limited under a greenstone cover and different from the current mantle convection. The distribution of the diapiric granitoids that intrude this cover points to a honeycomb convection centred on downwelling sites separated by diffuse upwelling, which fits the theory on the early Earth mantle convection when plates did not cover the globe. We propose that the plate reorganisation regime appeared sometime between 3 and 2 Ga.     

Production and recycling of oceanic crust in the early Earth

Because of the strongly different conditions in the mantle of the early Earth regarding temperature and viscosity, present-day geodynamics cannot simply be extrapolated back to the early history of the Earth. We use numerical thermochemical convection models including partial melting and a simple mechanism for melt segregation and oceanic crust production to investigate an alternative suite of dynamics which may have been in operation in the early Earth. Our modelling results show three processes that may have played an important role in the production and recycling of oceanic crust: (1) Small-scale (x×100 km) convection involving the lower crust and shallow upper mantle. Partial melting and thus crustal production takes place in the upwelling limb and delamination of the eclogitic lower crust in the downwelling limb. (2) Large-scale resurfacing events in which (nearly) the complete crust sinks into the (eventually lower) mantle, thereby forming a stable reservoir enriched in incompatible elements in the deep mantle. New crust is simultaneously formed at the surface from segregating melt. (3) Intrusion of lower mantle diapirs with a high excess temperature (about 250 K) into the upper mantle, causing massive melting and crustal growth. This allows for plumes in the Archean upper mantle with a much higher excess temperature than previously expected from theoretical considerations.     

A Study on the Impact of Parameterization of Physical Processes on Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the Bay of Bengal With NCAR/PSU Mesoscale Model

Prediction of the track and intensity of tropical cyclones is one of the most challenging problems in numerical weather prediction (NWP). The chief objective of this study is to investigate the performance of different cumulus convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes in the simulation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. For this purpose, two severe cyclonic storms are simulated with two PBL and four convection schemes using non-hydrostatic version of MM5 modeling system. Several important model simulated fields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and precipitation are compared with the corresponding verification analysis/observation. The track of the cyclones in the simulation and analysis are compared with the best-fit track provided by India Meteorological Department (IMD). The Hong-Pan PBL scheme (as implemented in NCAR Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model) in combination with Grell (or Betts-Miller) cumulus convection scheme is found to perform better than the other combinations of schemes used in this study. Though it is expected that radiative processes may not have pronounced effect in short-range forecasts, an attempt is made to calibrate the model with respect to the two radiation parameterization schemes used in the study. And the results indicate that radiation parameterization has noticeable impact on the simulation of tropical cyclones.     

一种修正的局部混合长理论

按照通常的局部混合长理论,在红、黄巨星和超巨星对流区的顶部将出现超声速对流。作者对此提出了质疑,并提出了一种修正的混合长公式。与传统的理论相比,对具相同质量、光度和有效温度的恒星,新理论预期一较浅的对流区,超声速对流也被有效地抑制了。其结果是在ＨＲ 图上,红超巨星支向低温方向移动了１００４００Ｋ;而对中低光度恒星的结构和演化性质却没有任何可察的影响。     

一次强风雹天气的干侵入作用及雷达回波特征分析

利用6小时NCEP 0.25°×0.25°再分析资料、常规观测资料和多普勒雷达资料等，对2018年6月13日发生在河南省北部地区的一次风雹天气过程进行诊断分析，结果表明：（1）此次强风雹天气发生在华北冷涡后部西北气流中，强天气发生前大气整层较为干燥，冷涡后部横槽南下，自上而下带来干冷空气，低层水汽辐合与午后地面高温共同作用，形成上干冷下暖湿的不稳定层结；（2）地面辐合线和弱冷锋是此次风雹天气的触发机制；（3）对流单体在干侵入的一侧首先发展加强，随后在地面辐合线附近不断产生小的对流单体，对流单体合并后进一步加强，逐渐形成弓形回波带,大风出现在回波带前侧地面辐合线附近，冰雹出现在中气旋左侧区域;（4）对流单体的移动方向与地面辐合线一致，地面辐合线稳定少动有利于对流系统的增强，地面辐合线断裂后对流系统迅速减弱消亡。这些结论为强风雹短临预报预警提供了参考依据。     

用积云对流方法计算MCC的降水

根据郭晓岚的对流加热方法，计算积云对流对ＭＣＣ和加热，增湿的贡献，估计其降水效率，从而推算ＭＣＣ的降水量，计算结果与实际降水量及降水分布比较接近，可用于ＭＣＣ６－１２ｈ的降水估计和预报。